MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI and UK Spending Review Headline
See below for the key events across developed and emerging markets next week:
THROUGH THE WEEK - China May Inflation, Trade and Lending Data
China next week provides an update on inflation and trade with both holding high levels of interest, but for different reasons. May's PPI and CPI release is anticipated to show that the deflationary pressures remain in China. April's PPI declined -2.7% and surveys suggest it is likely that it declined further in May to -3.0%. Since its peak in late 2021, PPI has declined consistency and turned negative in late 2022 where it has remained. China's CPI in April was negative, capping off three months in a row of negative results and the market expects that May will see prices moderate further. Trade data is expected to fare better with exports increasing +6.0% as tariff risks somewhat recede, though imports are forecast to turn negative, a sign potentially of a concerned domestic market.
TUESDAY - UK Labour Market Report
The UK April/May labour market report will still be closely watched by markets, even amid continued concerns around the reliability of ONS data (underscored by the recent error in the April CPI report). We still pay most attention to the wage figures. Current consensus sees private sector earnings ex-bonuses easing to 5.4% 3M Y/Y from 5.6% in March, which if realised would be the lowest rate since September 2024. The May DMP survey leant marginally dovish on pay, with firms reporting 4.7% wage growth in the three months to May, a tenth lower than in April. One year-ahead wage growth expectations were 3.7% (vs 3.8% prior), consistent with the Q1 Agent's Pay Survey.
WEDNESDAY - ECB Wage Tracker
Following the hawkish reaction to the ECB's June decision and the stronger-than-forecast Q1 compensation per employee reading, staff's forward looking wage tracker will be watched for confirmation that the downward trajectory of pay pressures is intact. Easing labour cost growth is expected to filter into services inflation, helping core (and subsequently headline) inflation return sustainably to the 2% target. In its June projections, the ECB noted that "services inflation has been quite persistent, hovering around 4% since November 2023, but it is expected to decline gradually from 3.4%, on average, for 2025, to 2.6% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027. This decline reflects the fact that the delayed adjustments to earlier general price increases are fading out and the moderation in labour cost pressures is feeding through". At the June press conference, President Lagarde said that "the ECB’s wage tracker points to a further easing of negotiated wage growth in 2025, while the staff projections see wage growth falling to below 3 per cent in 2026 and 2027". The April vintage saw negotiated wages excluding one-off payments falling to 3.024% by Q4 2024.
WEDNESDAY - UK 2025 Spending Review
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will outline the government’s Spending Review on Wednesday, 11 June, delivering a statement in the House of Commons after Prime Minister’s Questions at 12:30BST (07:30ET, 13:30CET). Unlike a Budget or Spring Statement, the Spending Review will not contain new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, nor will it announce new tax and spending measures. Instead, Reeves will detail the spending allocations for individual government departments over the next several years. The ‘spending envelope’, i.e. the total sum of increased government spending over the period, is already known. Reeves will set out day-to-day departmental spending for the next three years and investment expenditure for the next four years. The Review is fraught with political risks for Reeves and PM Sir Keir Starmer, with ministers jockeying for the most beneficial outcome for their department. The chancellor has already warned that due to the limited fiscal headroom, not every department will “get everything they want”, risking divisions in Cabinet and ire on the backbenches if Labour MPs do not see sufficient funds going towards areas of concern for them.
WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - US May CPI and PPI
Next week’s US macro calendar is headlined by CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) reports for May, with the FOMC currently not expected to cut rates again until October. High inventories after tariff front-running could spare larger price increases until the summer but we’ll nevertheless watch core goods ex used cars after April saw its strongest monthly inflation since Mar 2023. Tourism/travel-related components have however been weak recently, interesting considering anecdotal softness in travel to the US. Early days of the Bloomberg survey see core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M after 0.24% M/M in April. That didn’t translate into core PCE inflation last month, at 0.12% M/M, although some tentatively look for that to switch this month in part on strength in portfolio management and investment advice prices after April’s weakness. Nomura for example eye core CPI at 0.255% M/M but core PCE at 0.367% M/M. The PPI report will then help narrow down the range of core PCE estimates.
THURSDAY - BCRP Decision (Peru)
In Peru, the BCRP is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% on Thursday, following the 25bp cut last month. Although CPI inflation came in below expectations in May, heightened uncertainty over the external backdrop looks set to prompt a more cautious stance from the board this month. That said, the benign inflation outlook keeps the door open to further rate cuts this year, and the central bank is still seen easing further in the coming months.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 07/06/2025 | 0730/0930 |  EU | ECB's Lagarde Speech In Monaco | |
| 07/06/2025 | 0940/1140 | EU | ECB's Schnabel in Dubrovnik panel discussion | |
| 07/06/2025 | 0940/1040 |  GB | BOE Greene On Central Bank Decoupling Panel | |
| 09/06/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** |  JP | GDP |
| 09/06/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CPI |
| 09/06/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 09/06/2025 | 0500/1400 | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 09/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB Elderson On Rule Of Law At Italian Court | |
| 09/06/2025 | - | *** | CN | Trade |
| 09/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** |  US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/06/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 09/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 09/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 10/06/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 10/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 10/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 10/06/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 10/06/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 10/06/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 10/06/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 10/06/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 10/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 10/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 11/06/2025 | 0630/0730 | GB | BOE Saporta Speech At Bank of Finland and SUERF Conference | |
| 11/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 11/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 11/06/2025 | 0930/1130 | EU | ECB Lane At 2025 Government Borrowers Forum | |
| 11/06/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 11/06/2025 | 1130/1230 | GB | Chancellor Reeves presents Spending Review to Parliament | |
| 11/06/2025 | 1200/1400 | EU | ECB Cipollone On Digital Payments Panel | |
| 11/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Building Permits |
| 11/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 11/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 11/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 11/06/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
| 12/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 12/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 12/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 12/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Index of Production |
| 12/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 12/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB Schnabel Visits "House of the Euro" | |
| 12/06/2025 | 1200/1400 | EU | ECB de Guindos At Financial Integration Conference | |
| 12/06/2025 | 1220/1420 | EU | ECB Schnabel At Financial Integration Conference | |
| 12/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 12/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 12/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Household debt-to-income |
| 12/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 12/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Services Revenues |
| 12/06/2025 | 1415/1615 | EU | ECB Elderson At Senior Supervisors Conference | |
| 12/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 12/06/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 12/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 13/06/2025 | 2301/0001 | ** | GB | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 13/06/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 13/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 13/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  DE | HICP (f) |
| 13/06/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 13/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 13/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 13/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Industrial Production |
| 13/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
| 13/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 13/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 13/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 13/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 13/06/2025 | 1500/1700 | EU | ECB Elderson At Senior Supervisor's Conference | |
| 13/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 13/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
