MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI and UK Labour Market In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
THROUGH THE WEEK - China Macro Data
China's July pricing data (Saturday): China CPI data for July was a tenth above consensus at 0.0% Y/Y (vs -0.1% cons, 0.1% prior). However, PPI inflation was negative for a 34th consecutive month at -3.6% Y/Y (vs -3.3% cons, -3.3% prior). Despite ongoing policy support that began late in 2024 there has been limited improvement from the consumer as housing prices continue lower. China's second quarter GDP growth of 5.2% was down from Q1 of 5.4%. The first quarter result received an unexpected uplift from industrial production and the front-loading of exports ahead of the trade war but with tariffs now in place and China's tariffs higher relative to other trading partners, the downward pressure on growth remains. The July meeting of the Politburo did not result in new stimulus, quite likely as the outcome of trade negotiations continue. However, this week's announcement on free pre-school funding could be the start of more policies aimed at boosting consumption alongside cash handouts to encourage families to have children.
New and Used Home Prices for July (Friday): Both new and used home prices have been stuck in a multi-year decline as the housing crisis continues. New home prices have not produced a positive monthly result since May 2023 and Used home prices since April 2023. The positive momentum in prices that began at the beginning of the year has waned as prices decline further from April onwards and with no new policy intervention it remains difficult to see any rebound. Given the momentum over the last three months it is possible to see house prices decline further in the July numbers.
Retail Sales (Friday): Could be the only somewhat brighter spot for data next week as its resilience remains. The likelihood of retail sales returning to 10% month on month as seen between 2010 right up to the COVID period is low with the monthly average now slipping below 5%. Following June's result of +4.8%, the market forecasts July retail sales of +4.6%.
MONDAY / THURSDAY - Norway July Inflation and Norges Bank Decision
Norwegian July inflation is due on Monday at 0700BST/0800CET. Norges Bank projects CPI-ATE inflation to grow at 3.1% Y/Y (vs 3.1% in June), while Bloomberg consensus instead expects a 3.0% Y/Y reading. Inflation is the last major macro datapoint before Norges Bank’s August 14 decision (Thursday), but is not expected to shift firm expectations for a hold at 4.25%. Instead, the July report will add to the stock of data available ahead of the September decision, where markets expect a 25bp cut to 4.00% to be delivered. After surprising markets with a 25bp cut in June, Norges Bank said that "the economic outlook is uncertain, but if the economy evolves broadly as currently projected, the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025". The June MPR rate path was consistent with one or two more cuts this year. Assuming inflation comes in close to expectations, we expect this message to be re-iterated.
TUESDAY - RBA Decision
The RBA decision is on Tuesday August 12 and is widely expected to cut rates 25bp to 3.60% given the further moderation in underlying inflation in Q2 and signs that the labour market has reached a turning point and is weakening. It had 50bp of easing for H2 assumed in its May projections. There will be an update to the RBA outlook provided with the decision but it is likely to be consistent with the Board's cautious approach to easing.
TUESDAY - UK June/July Labour Market Report
Labour market data is due for release on Tuesday and with the Bank of England emphasising a finely balanced decision to cut Bank Rate which was largely influenced by high inflation offset by a soft labour market, for the market to keep a November cut in play we likely need to see come continued softening in this release. There are many moving parts. Private regular average earnings are probably the most significant with an early consensus looking for a 4.8%Y/Y print for the 3-months to June. This would be slightly below the 4.88%Y/Y print in the 3-months to May but notably below the BOE's May MPR forecast of 5.20%Y/Y (the BOE did not publish a new forecast for Q2 in its August MPR). The volatile HMRC RTI payrolls flash print for July is expected to fall by around 20k with some analysts flagging a risk of an upward revision to June's -41k print. The Bank of England (and consensus) expect a small uptick for the unemployment rate from 4.67% in the 3-months to May to 4.71% (after raising its forecast from the 4.57% it projected in the May MPR).
TUESDAY / THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US July CPI/PPI Inflation and Retail Sales
Tuesday’s CPI report headlines the US economic calendar with analysts expecting core CPI inflation to gain momentum in July as the acceleration in core goods inflation continues. We’re starting to get into larger tariff impacts on core goods but the largest could be reserved for Aug-Sep by some estimates. We are currently tracking unrounded core CPI estimates at around 0.32% M/M after the 0.23% in June at what would be the strongest M/M print since January. A better idea of latest core PCE implications will have to wait a little longer than usual this month with the July PPI report released on Thursday. The early days for analyst core PCE estimates look similar to those for core CPI after the 0.26% M/M in June. No sign of tariff passthrough or sufficiently offsetting service softness would be a notable sign of subdued consumer demand. A Fed cut at the next FOMC decision on Sep 17 is heavily priced (22.5bp at typing) but for expectations around this particular meeting we imagine next month's payrolls report could be more impactful. The data, especially if showing signs of tariff pressures, could see President Trump accuse the BLS of political bias after his extraordinary response to Friday’s payrolls report in firing Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
Friday’s retail sales will also provide an up-to-date look at consumer resilience with Bloomberg consensus currently for a nominal 0.5% M/M in July after the 0.6% M/M in June. Redbook data also point to a solid month, with its anecdotals pointing to promotions and sales tax holidays as having boosted late July sales.
WEDNESDAY - Bank of Thailand Decision
July Thai inflation printed below expectations and headline was negative on the year for the fourth straight month. This and weakening confidence, stronger THB, soft tourist arrivals and lending argue for an August 13 rate cut after the Bank of Thailand was on hold in June. However, with the new Governor starting October 1, the MPC may decide to keep policy space for that time given its rate is only 1.75%. The next meeting is October 8.
THURSDAY - Eurozone Q2 GDP Second Release
Eurozone Q2 GDP is expected to be in line with the flash release at 0.1% Q/Q, which would be a tenth below the ECB's June projections. However, some analysts have flagged downside risks stemming from the weak German industrial production report for June (which included downward revisions to the May reading). The second GDP release also provides a first look at employment and real productivity per employee. The ECB projects 0.0% Q/Q employment growth in Q2, while real productivity per employee is seen rising 0.5% Y/Y.
FRIDAY - Japan Q2 Preliminary GDP
Q2 Japan GDP is expected to post a modest gain, per consensus forecasts. In Q/Q terms growth was flat in Q1. Outside of focus on whether headline momentum stayed positive, interest will also be in the break up of growth. Private consumption is expected to post a 0.1%q/q gain. Real wage outcomes remain negative y/y, but spending did rise in the middle part of Q2. Capex is expected to remain positive, while net exports are forecast to add to growth.
FRIDAY - BCRP Decision (Peru)
The BCRP is expected to keep the benchmark rate on hold at 4.50% at their August meeting. Forward guidance will likely keep the door open for more accommodation given that headline inflation is below the midpoint of the central bank’s target, but policymakers are expected to reiterate that future decisions will remain data-dependent.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 11/08/2025 | 2301/0001 |  GB | KPMG / REC UK Report on Jobs | |
| 11/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 11/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** |  IT | HICP (f) |
| 11/08/2025 | - | *** |  CN | Money Supply |
| 11/08/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 11/08/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 11/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 11/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 12/08/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12/08/2025 | 0430/1430 | *** |  AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 12/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 12/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 12/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 12/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 12/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 12/08/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 12/08/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 12/08/2025 | 1100/1200 | GB | BOE APF Quarterly Report | |
| 12/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Building Permits |
| 12/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 12/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 12/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 12/08/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 12/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 12/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 12/08/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 12/08/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
| 13/08/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly wage price index |
| 13/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 13/08/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 13/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 13/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 13/08/2025 | 1730/1330 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 14/08/2025 | - | NO | NorgesBank Meeting | |
| 14/08/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Production |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 14/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | GDP First Estimate |
| 14/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 14/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 14/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** |  EU | Industrial Production |
| 14/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | GDP (p) |
| 14/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Employment |
| 14/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 14/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 14/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 14/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 14/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 14/08/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 15/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** |  JP | GDP |
| 15/08/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 15/08/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Retail Sales |
| 15/08/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Industrial Output |
| 15/08/2025 | 0200/1000 | ** | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 15/08/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 15/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | * |  CH | CH Flash GDP |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 15/08/2025 | 1300/0900 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 15/08/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 15/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 15/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 15/08/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
