MNI Global Week Ahead - UK Labour Data & US Shutdown In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
THROUGH THE WEEK - US Govt Shutdown Set To Continue
The US government shutdown is set to continue into next week, with lawmakers still appearing no closer to a deal on reopening the government. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) held a seventh vote on the duelling Republican and Democratic funding measures on Thursday. Both bills failed, as expected, with no change to the vote share. Following voting, Thune recessed the Senate until Tuesday, suggesting the shutdown is on track to continue until at least October 15, when most US military personnel miss their first full paycheck, something that hasn’t happened on a large scale in modern US history.
Government Shutdown Key Dates:
- Oct. 10: Most federal employees, including Capitol Police, miss their paycheck.
- Oct. 14: Air traffic controllers miss their first paycheck.
- Oct. 15: Military members, including active service personnel, miss first paychecks.
- Oct. 24: Federal employees will miss their first full paycheck.
Leader-level talks remain nonexistent, but there has been some limited progress in discussion among appropriators and rank-and-file lawmakers.
The BLS has announced that the September CPI report, originally scheduled for October 15, will be released on Friday October 24. The BLS adds that "No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits."
MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - China September Trade and Inflation Data
Trade data prints on Monday. Market forecasts aren't looking for significant shifts relative to Aug outcomes. Exports at 6.5%y/y (the consensus forecast) would be a resilient result in light tariffs implemented by the US. Import demand will also be eyed to gauge the domestic demand backdrop. Inflation data out on Wednesday is expected to show deflation remained for CPI (-0.2%y/y forecast) and PPI (-2.3%y/y forecast). Core CPI has trended higher, so a further headline dip may not weigh on market sentiment. The PPI focus point will be on efforts to curb excessive competition, which is weighing on upstream price pressures.
THROUGH THE WEEK - Quarterly US Earnings
Download Full Schedule Including Timings, EPS & Revenue Expectations Here
Financials, as usual, are the early focus for quarterly earnings season, with most major Wall Street names set to report. 7.4% of the index are set to report in the coming week, but most Magnificent Seven constituents aren’t due until toward the end of October. 50% of the index will have reported by October 29th. This quarter’s earnings will be the first to fully reflect the signs of passthrough of tariffs, making those with high exposure to international trade a particular focus. The S&P 500 is expected to post earnings growth of 8-10%, making for nine consecutive quarters of Y/Y EPS growth.
TUESDAY - UK August / September Labour Market Data
UK labour market data will be closely watched again on Tuesday. This will be the last labour report the MPC sees before its November MPC decision and the last labour market report to be used within the MPR forecasts as well as the last labour market report to be used by the OBR in its Budget forecasts. Based on early estimates analysts are split between private regular AWE (average weekly earnings) to fall to 4.5%Y/Y in the 3-months to August from a rounded 4.7%Y/Y (4.66%) in the 3-months to July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7% (4.66% unrounded previously). The 3-month employment change is expected to be around 100k below that seen in the 3-months to July (which was 232k). However, the more timely (but more prone to revision) HMRC TRI payroll data is expected to show continued modest declines. Overall the data are expected to show continuation of slack building in the labour market but not that the labour market is falling off a cliff. The upcoming week sees a number of MPC speakers, too, but the focus is very much on Governor Bailey as the swing voter. The bar to no Q4 cut is low (and markets only price around 5bp of cuts by the December MPC meeting) and an encouraging labour market print could be the nail in the coffin for those hoping for a November cut. However, a big downside surprise would very much keep a cut in play in our view.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 13/10/2025 | 1105/1205 |  GB | BOE Greene at Society of Professional Economists Conference | |
| 13/10/2025 | - | *** |  CN | Trade |
| 13/10/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 13/10/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 13/10/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 13/10/2025 | - |  EU | ECB Lagarde and Cipollone at IMF/World Bank Meetings | |
| 13/10/2025 | 1655/1255 |  US | Philly Fed's Anna Paulson | |
| 13/10/2025 | 1910/2010 | GB | BOE Mann in MonPol Panel, National Association of Business Economists | |
| 14/10/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 14/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment |
| 14/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment |
| 14/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment |
| 14/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 14/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants |
| 14/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants |
| 14/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 14/10/2025 | 0750/0950 | EU | ECB Cipollone Speech on Digital Euro | |
| 14/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 14/10/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 14/10/2025 | - | EU | ECB Lagarde and Cipollone at G20 Meeting | |
| 14/10/2025 | 1200/1300 | GB | BOE Taylor Remarks and Fireside Chat at University of Cambridge | |
| 14/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Building Permits |
| 14/10/2025 | 1245/0845 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 14/10/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 14/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 14/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 14/10/2025 | 1610/1210 | CA | BOC Sr Deputy Rogers fireside talk in Vancouver | |
| 14/10/2025 | 1620/1220 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 14/10/2025 | 1700/1800 | GB | BOE Bailey Fireside Chat at Institute of International Finance | |
| 14/10/2025 | 1925/1525 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 14/10/2025 | 1930/1530 | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
| 15/10/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CPI |
| 15/10/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 15/10/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** |  JP | Industrial Production |
| 15/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 15/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 15/10/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 15/10/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 15/10/2025 | 0740/0940 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Single Resolution Mechanism Conference | |
| 15/10/2025 | 0800/0900 | GB | BOE Ramsden in Panel at Resolution Mechanism Conference | |
| 15/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Industrial Production |
| 15/10/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 15/10/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 15/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 15/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 15/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/10/2025 | 1545/1645 | GB | BOE Breeden in Panel on Financial Regulation | |
| 15/10/2025 | 1610/1210 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 15/10/2025 | 1630/1230 | US | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | |
| 15/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 15/10/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 15/10/2025 | 1800/2000 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Alantra Anniversary Event | |
| 15/10/2025 | 1800/1900 | GB | BOE Breeden in Panel at Fintech Foundation | |
| 16/10/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 16/10/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 16/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 16/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 16/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 16/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Production |
| 16/10/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 16/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** |  IT | HICP (f) |
| 16/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | GB | BOE Credit Conditions Survey | |
| 16/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16/10/2025 | 0900/0500 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 16/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | IT | Foreign Trade | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1200/0800 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 16/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 16/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 16/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 16/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 16/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 16/10/2025 | 1300/1400 | GB | BOE Mann in Panel on MonPol and Trade Shocks | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 16/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 16/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 16/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 16/10/2025 | 1445/1545 | GB | BOE Mann in MonPol Panel at IMF/World Bank Meetings | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1545/1745 | EU | ECB Lane in Policy Panel at IIF Annual Meeting | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 16/10/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 16/10/2025 | 1600/1800 | EU | ECB Lagarde in IMF Policy Debate | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1645/1245 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1730/1330 | CA | BOC Governor Macklem speaks at Peterson Institute event in Washington. | |
| 16/10/2025 | 1830/1930 | GB | BOE Greene in Panel on UK/EU Relations | |
| 16/10/2025 | 2015/1615 | US | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | |
| 16/10/2025 | 2030/1630 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 16/10/2025 | 2200/1800 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 17/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Unemployment |
| 17/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 17/10/2025 | 0935/1035 | GB | BOE Pill Speech at Institute of Chartered Accountants Conference | |
| 17/10/2025 | 1100/1200 | GB | BOE Greene Roundtable at Atlantic Council | |
| 17/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 17/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 17/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 17/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 17/10/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/10/2025 | 1615/1215 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 17/10/2025 | 1630/1730 | GB | BOE Breeden in Panel at IMF/World Bank Meetings | |
| 17/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 17/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 17/10/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
