MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: UK CPI & Wages in Focus
UK data will be in the spotlight for the week ahead, with the BOE looking for surprises to labour and inflation data, capable of paving a path for either a hike or pause from the MPC in May.
MONDAY
Italy Final HICP: The final Italian March inflation print will likely confirm prices rose by +0.8% m/m and +8.2% y/y, slowing further from the October/November peak driven largely by cooling energy prices.
TUESDAY
UK Labour Report: The UK February unemployment rate is seen edging up by 0.1pp to 3.8% as the labour market cools slightly. Earnings data should show wage inflation easing in February, with weekly earnings (3m/yoy) seen softening by 0.6pp to +5.1% and ex. bonus down 0.3pp at +6.2%. The latest UK labour market data showed a continuation in the trend of slowing vacancies. Tentative signs that wages have peaked are beginning to materialise, which the upcoming report is likely to reiterate.
Germany ZEW Survey: ZEW Expectations are forecasted to edge up by around 2.5 points to 15.5 in the April ZEW survey of financial market experts, after a sharp March decline fuelled by banking-sector volatility of the SVB and Credit Suisse turmoil. The April survey will reflect risk sentiment following these events.
Canada CPI: Canadian March CPI appears set to cool for a ninth month by about one point from the February +5.2% y/y print. The BoC held the overnight rate at 4.5% on Wednesday as unanimously expected for the second meeting running. The Bank’s latest Q1 estimate was revised down to 5.2% (-0.2pp) in light of recent cooling of headline pressures and is now seen slowing further to 3.3% in Q2.
WEDNESDAY
UK CPI: In March, UK inflation is projected to have cooled further. Consensus is eyeing a 0.6pp reduction on headline CPI to +9.8% y/y, although higher by 0.5% m/m. This follows the uptick on annualised inflation to 10.4% y/y in February, boosted by services inflation which pushed core CPI up for the first time in five months. This provided the hawks on the BOE MPC with ammunition to push for the recent 25bp hike. Another upside surprise increases the chance of a second 25bp hike in May, yet markets are not yet fully convinced, pricing around 20bp at the time of writing.
Eurozone Final HICP: The final March print is set to confirm that Eurozone HICP cooled by 1.6pp to +6.9% y/y, with prices rising +0.9% m/m. Despite cooling headline inflation, core HICP remains a key concern for the ECB, after hotter services prices saw core edge up by 0.1pp to a fresh euro-era high. Strong service activity flagged by recent PMI data is adding to sticky service-inflation troubles.
Should an upwards revision to Monday’s Italian final print materialise, this would make a minor upwards revision to the final eurozone print possible after the +0.1pp French revisions.
THURDAY
Germany PPI: Cooling energy prices will likely assist another fall in producer prices in the German March data. PPI is seen falling -0.8% m/m, easing by 6.2pp to +9.6% y/y, substantially lower than the record peak of +45.8% y/y recorded in August/September. Note that January and February headline PPI will likely be revised down in the March release as the delayed effects of the electricity and gas price breaks will be taken into account by Destatis retrospectively.
Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence: After remaining broadly stable in March, the eurozone economic sentiment index is seen ending up by around one point to -18.3 in April, likely again signalling tentative signs of purchasing intentions improving. Whether this will translate into positive growth in the near future remains clouded, with the index and spending appetite still remaining depressed in the most recent retail data.
FRIDAY
UK Consumer Confidence / Retail Sales: UK consumer confidence is also anticipated to edge up by one point, to -35 in the GfK April report. Despite at a 12-month high, the indicator remains severely depressed, indicating that spending will remain pressured in the near term against the current economic backdrop of persistently high inflation.
Retail sales are broadly projected to contract in March, by around -0.5% m/m after discounts boosted February numbers. The March CBI report implies an upside surprise is on the cards, yet this report is often volatile. According to the ONS, March sales would only need to be stronger than -1.7% m/m for retail to be a positive contribution to Q1 GDP.
Flash April PMIs: April PMI data across Europe are anticipated to edge up across manufacturing, albeit remaining in contractionary territory as output remains subdued. PMIs will likely cool marginally across services, remaining firmly in growth territory. US manufacturing is expected to stall at slightly contractive 49.2, whilst services are seen slowing by 1.1 points to 51.5, remaining softer than European services prints.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 17/04/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 17/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 17/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 17/04/2023 | 1300/1400 |  | UK | BOE Cunliffe Speech at Innovate Finance Global Summit | |
| 17/04/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** |  | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 17/04/2023 | 1500/1700 |  | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech at Council on Foreign Relations | |
| 17/04/2023 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 17/04/2023 | 1530/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 17/04/2023 | 1645/1245 |  | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 17/04/2023 | 2000/1600 | ** |  | US | TICS |
| 18/04/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 18/04/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | Retail Sales |
| 18/04/2023 | 0200/1000 | *** |  | CN | Industrial Output |
| 18/04/2023 | 0200/1000 | ** |  | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate |
| 18/04/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 18/04/2023 | 0900/1100 | * |  | EU | Trade Balance |
| 18/04/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 18/04/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 18/04/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 18/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | CPI |
| 18/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/04/2023 | 1255/0855 | ** |  | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 18/04/2023 | 1300/1500 |  | EU | ECB Elderson in Basel Committee on Banking Supervision | |
| 18/04/2023 | 1500/1100 |  | CA | BOC Governor testifies to House of Commons committee | |
| 18/04/2023 | 1530/1130 | ** |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 18/04/2023 | 1700/1300 |  | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 19/04/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Consumer inflation report |
| 19/04/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Producer Prices |
| 19/04/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19/04/2023 | 0830/0930 | * |  | UK | ONS House Price Index |
| 19/04/2023 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | EU | HICP (f) |
| 19/04/2023 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | Construction Production |
| 19/04/2023 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 19/04/2023 | 1035/1235 |  | EU | ECB Lane Speech at Enterprise Ireland Summit | |
| 19/04/2023 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 19/04/2023 | 1215/0815 | ** |  | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 19/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | * |  | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 19/04/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 19/04/2023 | 1500/1700 |  | EU | ECB Schnabel Lecture at Leibniz-Zentrum ZEW | |
| 19/04/2023 | 1630/1730 |  | UK | BOE Mann Panellist at Brandeis International Business School | |
| 19/04/2023 | 1700/1300 | ** |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 19/04/2023 | 1800/1400 |  | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 19/04/2023 | 2300/1900 |  | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 20/04/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | PPI |
| 20/04/2023 | 0645/0845 | ** |  | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 20/04/2023 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Retail Sales |
| 20/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 20/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 20/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 20/04/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 20/04/2023 | 1400/1600 | ** |  | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 20/04/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 20/04/2023 | 1530/1130 |  | CA | BOC Governor testifies at Senate committee | |
| 20/04/2023 | 1530/1630 |  | UK | BOE Tenreyro Panels National Bureau of Economics Research Conf | |
| 20/04/2023 | 1600/1200 |  | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 20/04/2023 | 1620/1220 |  | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 20/04/2023 | 1700/1300 | ** |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note |
| 20/04/2023 | 1900/1500 |  | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 20/04/2023 | 1900/1500 |  | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 20/04/2023 | 2015/2215 |  | EU | ECB Schnabel Lecture at Stanford Graduate School of Business | |
| 20/04/2023 | 2100/1700 |  | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 21/04/2023 | 2300/0900 | *** |  | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 21/04/2023 | 2301/0001 | ** |  | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 20/04/2023 | 2345/1945 |  | US | Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 21/04/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 21/04/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Retail Sales |
| 21/04/2023 | 0700/0900 |  | EU | ECB de Guindos Remarks at Fundacion La Caixa | |
| 21/04/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/04/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/04/2023 | 0730/0930 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/04/2023 | 0730/0930 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/04/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/04/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/04/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 21/04/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** |  | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 21/04/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** |  | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 21/04/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** |  | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 21/04/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | Retail Trade |
| 21/04/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) |
| 21/04/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 21/04/2023 | 1430/1630 |  | EU | ECB Elderson at Peterson Institute Climate Event | |
| 21/04/2023 | 1745/1945 |  | EU | ECB de Guindos at Colegio de Economistas de Madrid Event | |
| 21/04/2023 | 2035/1635 |  | US |
Fed Governor Lisa Cook |
