MNI Global Week Ahead: UK Budget Is The Main Event
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
THROUGH THE WEEK - US Data
A Thanksgiving-condensed week sees data highlights from delayed retail sales and PPI reports for September on Tuesday (Nov 25) before a Wednesday release for weekly jobless claims (Nov 26). Redbook and Chicago Fed CARTS indicators point to solid nominal growth in retail sales, something broadly reflected in analyst consensus for the release. PPI inflation will offer a useful albeit not overly timely update on input cost pressures. Jobless claims will be watched particularly closely, both for latest initial claims for signs of layoffs and a notable update for continuing claims. The latter covers the payrolls reference period for November and will be an important reference point for FOMC members trying to get a sense of latest unemployment rate clues with the next payrolls reports coming after the Dec 9-10 FOMC decision (going into it with this week’s 0.12bp rise to 4.44% back in September).
WEDNESDAY - RBNZ Decision
The RBNZ is likely to cut rates 25bp on 26 November to 2.25%, edging below its estimate of "neutral". The data released since its October decision have been consistent with a gradual but soft recovery and close to the RBNZ's August expectations and thus there is unlikely to be another outsized 50bp easing. Updated staff forecasts and a press conference will be included with the November statement. Again attention will be firmly on the OCR path, which shifted materially lower in August. Q3 CPI and unemployment rate printed at the RBNZ's forecast and so are unlikely to show major revisions.
WEDNESDAY - UK Budget (MNI Preview here)
It can be stated without hyperbole that the UK Budget could be the biggest domestic event of the year, and indeed could have repercussions for many years to come. There is still a great deal of uncertainty over the measures that will be announced. In this document we answer the main questions of why the Budget is so important for financial markets and political risk, outline potential measures and also set out expectations for the gilt remit revision. We also compile an early look at sellside expectations who look for the gilt remit to increase around GBP8bln with an additional GBP2bln of UKTB sales. Additionally, we look at how at next year's Budget there will be a little more wiggle room, which may impact Reeves' headroom choice for this year.
THURSDAY - Japan End of Month Data
Next Friday delivers the month end data dump, with most focus likely to rest with the Nov Tokyo CPI print. The CPI data is not expected to shift too much from the Oct outcome, which was just under 3%y/y. Services inflation in the Oct nationwide CPI report was still running below 2% y/y as well. Also out is retail spend and jobless rate data. The jobs market is expected to remain tight. IP for Oct is also out. Business spending trends were firm to the end of Q3, particularly core machine orders.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision
The BOK is expected to keep rates on hold next week. Financial stability concerns around rising property prices, particularly in the Seoul area, remain a key focus point for policy makers. There are some signs that growth will improve next year as well, while inflation pressures have also stabilised around the 2% level. Of interest will be the BOK bias around the rate outlook. At the last meeting, the majority of the board was still in favour of a rate cut in the next 3 Months.
FRIDAY - France, Spain, Germany and Italy Flash November Inflation
The Eurozone November flash inflation reading is due on Tuesday, Decmeber 2. However, country-level data from Germany, France, Italy and Spain will be released on Friday, providing a good steer for the region-wide release. Early Bloomberg consensus sees headline HICP inflation ticking down in Spain (3.0% vs 3.2% prior), moving up in France (1.0% vs 0.8% prior) and Germany (2.4% vs 2.3% prior) and remaining steady in Italy (1.3%). That suggests marginal upward pressure for the Eurozone-wide headline reading, potentially to 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.1% prior). Of course, the core reading will be of more interest, after printing at 2.4% in October. Some early expectations we've seen point to an unchanged reading in November. The ECB expects headline inflation to undershoot the 2% target in 2026 and 2027 (and potentially 2028), but spot rates remain above this level for now. If dovish policymakers are to argue for another rate cut this cycle, they will need to start seeing evidence of this undershoot sooner rather than later. ECB-dated OIS continue to price a ~40% implied probability of another cut this cycle.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 22/11/2025 | 0800/0900 |  EU | ECB Lagarde in Roundtable at Austrian National Bank | |
| 22/11/2025 | 1100/1200 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote on Fiscal and MonPol | |
| 24/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** |  DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24/11/2025 | 1100/1200 | EU | ECB Cipollone Presentation at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti | |
| 24/11/2025 | 1245/1345 | EU | ECB Elderson Keynote on Climate & Supervision | |
| 24/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | * |  CA | Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises |
| 24/11/2025 | 1400/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 24/11/2025 | 1445/1545 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote on AI & Education | |
| 24/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** |  US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 24/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 24/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 24/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 25/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 25/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | DE | GDP (f) |
| 25/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 25/11/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 25/11/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 25/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 25/11/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 25/11/2025 | 1400/1500 | EU | ECB Cipollone Keynote at Central Bank of Ireland | |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 25/11/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 25/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 25/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 25/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 25/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 26/11/2025 | - |  NZ | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting | |
| 26/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Quarterly construction work done |
| 26/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | CPI inflation |
| 26/11/2025 | 0100/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 26/11/2025 | 0700/1500 | ** |  CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
| 26/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 26/11/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** |  BR | Brazil Preliminary CPI |
| 26/11/2025 | 1230/1230 | GB | Chancellor Reeves to deliver UK Budget | |
| 26/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 26/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 26/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 26/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 26/11/2025 | 1442/0942 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 26/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 26/11/2025 | 1530/1530 | GB | DMO to publish consultation agenda | |
| 26/11/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 26/11/2025 | 1605/1705 | EU | ECB Lane Fireside Chat on Macro Outlook | |
| 26/11/2025 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 26/11/2025 | 1700/1200 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 26/11/2025 | 1700/1800 | EU | ECB Lagarde Acceptance Speech | |
| 26/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 26/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 26/11/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 26/11/2025 | 1900/1400 | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 27/11/2025 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure |
| 27/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 27/11/2025 | 0830/0930 | EU | ECB Cipollone Remarks at Euro Cyber Resilience Board | |
| 27/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
| 27/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 27/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 27/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 27/11/2025 | 1100/1200 | EU | ECB de Guindos Remarks at CEDE Congress of Executives | |
| 27/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Current account |
| 27/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 27/11/2025 | 1630/1630 | GB | BOE Greene Speech at Goodbody Conference | |
| 28/11/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 28/11/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 28/11/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 28/11/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 28/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | GDP |
| 28/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 28/11/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 28/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) |
| 28/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 28/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 28/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 28/11/2025 | 0745/0845 | FR | Payrolls | |
| 28/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) |
| 28/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 28/11/2025 | 0800/0900 | *** | CH | GDP |
| 28/11/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 28/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (f) |
| 28/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 28/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 28/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 28/11/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 28/11/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | IT | Italy Flash Inflation |
| 28/11/2025 | 1300/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 28/11/2025 | 1300/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 28/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 28/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 28/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 28/11/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 28/11/2025 | 1600/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
