MNI Global Week Ahead - Tariff Deadline, RBNZ and RBA In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
TUESDAY - RBA Decision (Australia)
The RBA is widely expected to cut rates next week. Market pricing is close to 100% priced for a 25bps cut, while the firm sell-side consensus is for a 25bps cut as well. Inflation outcomes to May look to support the case for further easing, as inflation trends drift towards the centre of the RBA's 1-3% target band. Domestic indicators looked mixed, but shouldn't stand in the way of further easing from the central bank. The outlook presented by the RBA Governor and the board is likely to be of greater interest. Market pricing still has around 2 further cuts priced in beyond next week's expected 25bps move.
WEDNESDAY - US July 9 Reciprocal Tariff Relief Deadline
After June brought relative calm to the trade outlook, tariffs are back in focus for markets with the 90-day reciprocal tariff deadline set to expire. Although US officials signalled that a record number of trade deals would be signed between April 8 and now, at the time of writing only agreements with the UK, Vietnam, China and (almost) Indonesia have been announced - all with differing degrees of comprehensiveness. The President has announced that a series of letters will be sent out to trading partners detailing what tariff rates will be imposed on imports, with countries starting to pay levies on August 1. Somewhat concerningly, the President has said that these rates will "range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20%".
For the EU, Trade spokesperson Olof Gill said on Friday that talks are in a "sensitive phase". This was underscored by a last minute escalation from the US side, threatening EU Trade Commission Maros Sefcovic with 17% tariffs on agricultural exports. The Commission is now assessing how to take forward negotiations with the U.S. after taking EU states' feedback into account. In recent days, expectations have been managed down to a "deal in principle" by next Wednesday, with EU officials hoping that a more comprehensive agreement can be negotiated later.
WEDNESDAY - China June Inflation
There appears limited potential for an upside surprise as China releases its June CPI and PPI next week. CPI printed at -0.1% in May and the market expects no change in June. PPI is expected to fall for a 33rd consecutive month. This comes on the back of ongoing policy support from various policy changes over the last six month aimed at supporting the consumer. The deflation in PPI is reflective of the deflationary pressures for China's manufacturing sector. When considered alongside the downward pressure that has remained for several years for the housing sector, it remains unlikely that June's CPI will see any major upside surprises.
WEDNESDAY - RBNZ Decision (New Zealand)
The RBNZ is expected to hold policy rates steady next week. Little is pricing in from a market pricing standpoint, while the majority of sell-side analysts see no change. Those looking for a move see a 25bps cut next week, but are in the minority. There remains much uncertainty around the NZ economic recovery, but the central bank probably doesn't need to be urgent and act now. The tick up in inflation expectations also warrants an on hold outcome at this meeting.
WEDNESDAY - BNM Decision (Malaysia)
The Bank Negara Malaysia ("BNM") maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Malaysian economy projecting the economy to grow between +4.5% and +5.5% this year to follow on from +5.1% in 2024. The BNM expects the growth to be underpinned by robust domestic demand, strong investment activity and household expenditure. Inflation has remained subdued and below the BNM's expected range. Headline CPI was at +1.5% for Q1, with core at +1.9% against an expected range of +2.0% -3.5%. The BNM has been on hold since May 2023 at 3.00% with the only key change in that time being the reduction in the statutory reserve requirement ratio by 100bps in May, which caught markets by surprise. Estimates are that this released approximately MYR19bn of liquidity into the system, a move seen as a strong signal of the BNM's support. The risks to the outlook for growth are influenced by the outcome of the talks with the US on tariffs. Exports were robust in May and June's PMI whilst remaining in contraction, showed signs of an improving outlook for sentiment. Until the outcome of the trade talks is concluded, the cut in RRR seems sufficient support for the economy and as such we see the BNM on hold at its meeting on July 09.
WEDNESDAY - FOMC Minutes
The minutes of the June 17-18 FOMC meeting (released Wednesday Jul 9 at 2pm ET) should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty, as encapsulated in the meeting's Dot Plot which showed participants largely divided between no cuts and 2 cuts by year-end. We have heard significant dovishness on the rate front from Board members Bowman and Waller since June's meeting, and while they appear to be outliers, it could be interesting to see whether any other members tend to agree with the view that the incoming tariff inflation will be largely transitory. With the Fed otherwise firmly in "wait-and-see"' mode though, there will be some added focus this time on any discussion of the Fed's 5-year policy review, with the new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy due to be wrapped up by late summer. Additionally, we will be watching for discussion on the format of the much-maligned "Dot Plot" - Powell noted at the press conference that the Committee discussed "enhancements to our suite of communication tools" at a high level, including the Summary of Economic Projections, and said that this would be reviewed in the fall.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision (Korea)
The Bank of Korea ("BOK") expects the Korean economy to expand between +1.6% -1.7% for 2025, despite the economy contracting in Q1. This is forecast is underpinned by the rate cuts the BOK has undertaken, with the most recent being at the meeting in May. Korea has been through a period of serious political upheaval which post the election of a new government in June is hoped to be in the past with the incoming government expected to implement a further supplementary budget soon. A significant risk to the export-oriented economy is the threat posed by US tariffs. The market has begun to price out rate cuts with only 2bps of change priced in over the next 3 months. Since March the market has gone from pricing in -37bps of cuts over a 12-month time horizon to now less than half of that. Given that the likelihood that the tariff discussions are fully resolved by the time of the BOK meeting, we see limited scope for a further BOK cut and for them to remain at 2.50%.
THURSDAY - BCRP Decision (Peru)
A majority of analysts expect the BCRP to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% on Thursday, although risks are skewed towards the possibility of a renewed cut following benign inflation data earlier this week. Last month, the central bank stayed on hold, while keeping the door open to further easing, amid uncertainty about the external backdrop. With the policy rate already near neutral and attention on the US rate differential, the BCRP has limited room to manoeuvre and may stay cautious for now.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 05/07/2025 | 1545/1645 |  GB | BOE Bailey On Les Recontres Economiques Panel | |
| 07/07/2025 | - |  AU | Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting | |
| 07/07/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | average wages (p) |
| 07/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 07/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** |  EU | Retail Sales |
| 07/07/2025 | - | EU | ECB Lagarde and Cipollone In Eurogroup Meeting | |
| 07/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 07/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 08/07/2025 | 2350/0850 | JP | Balance of Payments | |
| 08/07/2025 | 0430/1430 | *** | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 08/07/2025 | 0500/1400 | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 08/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Trade Balance |
| 08/07/2025 | 0645/0845 | * |  FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08/07/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 08/07/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 08/07/2025 | - | EU | ECB de Guindos At ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 08/07/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 08/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | * |  CA | Ivey PMI |
| 08/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 08/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 08/07/2025 | 1900/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
| 09/07/2025 | - |  NZ | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting | |
| 09/07/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CPI |
| 09/07/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 09/07/2025 | 0200/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 09/07/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 09/07/2025 | 0930/1030 | GB | BOE Financial Stability Report | |
| 09/07/2025 | 1045/1245 | EU | ECB Lane At House of the Euro | |
| 09/07/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 09/07/2025 | 1100/1300 | EU | EC De Guindos Closing Remarks At Conference | |
| 09/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 09/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 09/07/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | FOMC Minutes | |
| 10/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | HICP (f) |
| 10/07/2025 | 0700/0900 | EU | ECB Cipollone Digital Euro Lecture | |
| 10/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 10/07/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 10/07/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 10/07/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 10/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 10/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 10/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 10/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 10/07/2025 | 1500/1600 | GB | BOE Breeden On Climate Change | |
| 10/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 11/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 11/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 11/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 11/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Production |
| 11/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 11/07/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (f) |
| 11/07/2025 | 1130/1330 | EU | ECB Cipollone At Ukraine Recovery Conference | |
| 11/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 11/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Building Permits |
| 11/07/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 11/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 11/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 11/07/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
