MNI Global Week Ahead - Risk Events Left, Right and Centre

Dec-12 16:54By: Emil Lundh

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week.

DEVELOPED MARKETS

MONDAY / FRIDAY - Japan Q4 Tankan Survey / BOJ Decision

The Q4 Tankan survey comes ahead of next week's BoJ meeting outcome, but only a drastic surprise (on the downside) would shift the central bank's thinking (with a hike increasingly priced in over the past week). Still, the Tankan report will inform the 2026 outlook, with focus on both current conditions and the capex outlook. The government recently announced a stimulus package, mostly aimed at cost of living measures, but it clearly has a pro-growth agenda. Market forecasts are relatively steady compared to Q3 outcomes. The headline index expected at 15 (14 printed for Q3).

Expectations for a 25bp rate hike (from 0.50% to 0.75%) at the BOJ’s December 18–19 meeting have strengthened over the past week. Governor Ueda signalled earlier this month that the Bank may be ready to move, shortly after the yen fell to a 10-month low against the dollar, heightening concerns about imported inflation. Nearly two-thirds of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the BOJ to lift rates roughly every six months from this month onward, with the median terminal rate for the cycle forecast at 1.25%. Markets now assign a 94% probability to a hike next week, with another increase priced in by September 2026.

TUESDAY - Eurozone December Flash PMIs

The Eurozone December flash PMIs are not expected to meaningfully change the narrative at Thursday’s ECB decision, but will provide a timely update on economic activity. Focus will be on whether the solid momentum seen in October and November is sustained, setting the stage for another improved GDP reading in Q4. Consensus sees the Eurozone-wide composite reading at 52.7, which would be a touch below November's 52.8. Services is expected to moderate 0.3 points to 53.3, offset by an equal increase in manufacturing to 49.9. Across countries, small improvements are expected in both Germany and France.

TUESDAY / THURSDAY - US November Labour Market Report / CPI Report

The BLS releases delayed November reports for both nonfarm payrolls and CPI inflation this week. Tuesday sees the full nonfarm payrolls report for November plus half a report for October, missing the household survey as the BLS was unable to conduct this interview-heavy approach during the government shutdown. Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls growth in the region of 50k in November but with some alternate indicators such as ADP pointing to weaker figures. Expect as much if not more attention on the lone November update for the unemployment rate after its surprise increase to 4.44% in September. The FOMC will be sensitive to any further increases here, with the median participant forecasting 4.5% for 4Q25 before 4.4% in 4Q26. There will however be added scrutiny to the household survey details with the government re-opening shortly before survey fieldwork would ordinarily have begun. Note that Tuesday also sees the retail sales report for October in an important update on consumer momentum after ending an otherwise solid Q3 on a soft note.

Thursday then sees the November CPI report along with some individual values for October for those series that aren’t surveyed, generally estimated to be only up to 15% of the CPI basket. There’s uncertainty as to how this release will be displayed, with the BLS possibly showing as a two-month change from the last seasonally adjusted values in September. Other options could include the BLS simply commenting on Y/Y changes in the non-seasonally adjusted data with market participants instead then having to dig into the underlying data to calculate recent run rates. A recent theme of inflation data is that it’s been stubbornly strong at an above target rate but also not as bad as feared, with monthly inflation rates peaking in the June or July depending on whether you look at consumer price or input cost metrics. We suspect investor focus will continue to be on whether there has been any further acceleration in core goods inflation as well as signs of stronger spillover to underlying services after worryingly firm readings in the summer then faded somewhat in September.

TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - UK Labour Market and CPI Reports / BOE Decision

It's a huge week for the UK with labour market data and flash PMI data (both Tues) and inflation data (Wed) both coming ahead of the MPC meeting on Thursday. Friday will also see the release of retail sales and public finance data. Labour market data last month saw private regular wage growth a little softer-than-expected and there is expected to be further deterioration in the 3-months to October, as well as an increase in the unemployment rate likely possibly even above the BOE's Q4-25 forecast of 4.97% (indeed the early Bloomberg consensus is for 5.1%). Headline CPI is expected to decelerate from the 3.56%Y/Y seen in October (which was 0.04ppt below the BOE's forecast). Some of the early forecasts see headline CPI a little higher than the BOE's 3.41% forecast, which largely seems to be due to petrol prices. The Bank will receive both of these on Monday morning and as long as there are no notable surprises, we expect Governor Bailey to support a cut and to join the four dovish dissenters from the November meeting in delivering a 25bp cut. Markets are pricing around an 87% probability of this outcome at the time of writing with almost all of the sellside previews also expecting a cut.

THURSDAY - NZ Q3 GDP

NZ Q3 GDP is released on Thursday 18 December. After activity contracted 0.9% q/q in Q2, some rebound is expected in Q3 and also into Q4. The RBNZ forecast a 0.4% q/q rise in Q3 GDP in November. The partial data are pointing to a solid outcome with real retail sales rising 1.9% q/q, building volumes +1.5% q/q, manufacturing volumes +1.1%, real merchandise exports up 3.5% q/q while imports were down 1.2% q/q.

THURSDAY - Riksbank Decision

The Riksbank is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.75% on Thursday, in a quarterly decision which includes an updated MPR and rate path projection. We expect the policy statement to re-iterate the policy rate will be kept at 1.75% for “some time”. Recent data suggests an upward revision to the December rate path is warranted, but we note that market pricing has already moved to almost fully price a hike by the end of next year. This suggests the bar to further hawkish repricing in SEK rates is high. The main focus should be on the first three quarters of the updated rate path. This is the part of the curve that is “owned” by the Executive Board, and therefore constitutes a policy signal, In September, the path was flat at 1.75% for the first three quarters – a clear signal for steady rates ahead. If the front of the December path moves above 1.75%, it would suggest that the Board considers the risk of a hike to 2% as greater than the risk of another cut over the next year. This is in line with our view and – clearly – market pricing. We expect the rate path to remain at 1.75% in Q1 and Q2, as muted inflation developments and a stubbornly high LFS unemployment rate guard against too hawkish an outcome. However, we think it is well balanced for the Q3 2026 point to be revised up to ~1.80%, owing to strengthening activity momentum, supportive monetary policy and the anticipated expansion of fiscal policy from next year.

THURSDAY - Norges Bank Decision

Norges Bank is unanimously expected to hold the policy rate at 4% on Thursday, in a quarterly decision which includes an updated MPR and rate path projection. The rate path will be the primary focus for markets, and we expect a downward revision relative to September. The downward revision we anticipate may shift the balance of risks in favour of 2x25bp cuts next year, versus the single cut embedded in the September rate path. That would see the December rate path align more closely with market pricing, and our own view. We expect several rate path components to contribute to the downward revision, led by “petroleum prices and investment” and the “money market premium”. That said, the implied probability of 2x25bp cuts is likely to be well below 100%, since Norges Bank retains a preference for a cautious easing cycle due to sticky services inflation and only gradually slowing mainland GDP growth.

THURSDAY - ECB Decision

The ECB is expected to hold its three key interest rates steady in December, leaving the 2% deposit rate at the mid-point of the ECB's 1.75-2.25% neutral range estimate. The policy statement is expected to re-iterate a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach, with primary focus on the updated macroeconomic projections and the balance of risks to inflation and growth. Relative to the September projection round, both growth and inflation outcomes have been higher than expected. As such, analysts expect upward revisions to both GDP and core HICP projections. Headline HICP projections are expected to be broadly steady due to weaker energy prices and the delay to the EU's ETS2 carbon pricing scheme. Projections for 2028 will be presented for the first time, but Governing Council speakers have played down their relevance, owing to still elevated uncertainty.

The main intrigue heading into Thursday's decision is how the ECB responds to the recent wave of hawkish front-end repricing. ECB-dated OIS now no longer price any implied probability of another cut this year, with 7bps of hikes priced through December. Pricing likely hasn't strayed far enough from the ECB's base case to warrant explicit commentary/pushback from President Lagarde, but we think a re-iteration that policy is in a "good place" could temper hike expectations a little - in contrast to meetings earlier this year.

Our Policy Team's latest sources piece noted that December meeting communication will seek to reinforce two-way risks around the 2.0% policy rate. Although the bar to another cut has clearly been raised, dovish members of the Governing Council remain cognizant of downside inflation risks, with under delivery of Germany's anticipated fiscal expansion still a risk to monitor.

Emerging Markets

Please see our inaugural CEEMEA Week Ahead publication here.

TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)

The final NBH meeting of the year could present the central bank with an opportunity to lay the groundwork for a rate cut in Q1/Q2 next year. While the overwhelming likelihood is that the base rate will remain unchanged at 6.50% until after the elections next year, the December Inflation Report may present the case for a dovish shift in language.

TUESDAY - BCCh Decision (Chile)

The BCCh is widely expected to deliver a new 25bp interest rate cut to 4.5% on Tuesday after benign CPI data over the last two months have eased policymakers concerns about persistent inflation pressures. Headline inflation has fallen back within the central bank’s 2-4% target range over the period, while the policy relevant ex-volatiles measure has also declined to 3.4% y/y, tracking below the central bank’s latest projections. Recent survey data suggest that a rate cut next week will be followed by a final 25bp move next year, bringing the policy rate down to around its neutral level.

WEDNESDAY - BOT Decision (Thailand)

Bank of Thailand is likely to announce a 25bp rate cut on Wednesday 17 December, which would bring it to 1.25% and easing in 2025 to 100bp. With core inflation remaining below the bottom of BoT's target band, severe weather events, disappointing Q3 GDP, slowing export growth and continued baht strength, the central bank is likely to deem the timing this month as appropriate. The MPC has been careful given its limited policy room.

WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)

Bank Indonesia announces its decision on Wednesday 17 December and like the last couple of meetings it is likely to be balanced discussion. Currently 4 analysts on Bloomberg expect rates to be unchanged at 4.75% and 3 are forecasting a 25bp cut. In Q3, BI's focus was on growth but this quarter it appears to have returned to FX stability. USDIDR is down 0.5% and the BIS IDR NEER is up 0.3% since the last meeting but the rupiah remains weaker than its mid-year levels and so BI may want to see further strengthening before easing again. It also seems inclined to give the transmission mechanism more time for the 125bp of 2025 easing to feed into the economy, especially as little has been passed onto bank lending rates. With activity data improving since the November meeting and inflation well within the band, the BI has room to watch and wait.

THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czech Republic)

The final round of comments from Bank Board members ahead of the start of their media blackout reaffirmed expectations of another unanimous on-hold rate decision in December. The CNB said that Deputy Governor Eva Zamrazilová will not attend the meeting without providing any reasons for her absence.

THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)

Banxico is still expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut to 7.0% as it continues to respond to weak activity data, which revealed a contraction of the economy in the third quarter. However, recent stronger-than-expected CPI inflation data have increased the risk of a pause in the easing cycle, if not next week, then more likely early in the new year. At the very least, the persistence of core CPI inflation above the central bank’s target range ceiling adds to risks that another Board member (most likely Deputy Governor Borja) joins Deputy Governor Heath in dissenting with a vote to remain on hold.

FRIDAY - BanRep (Colombia)

BanRep is set to leave its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting, although risks of a hike have increased significantly amid mounting concerns over the inflation outlook. Rising inflation expectations, strengthening domestic demand and increasing fiscal pressures have prompted the majority of the BanRep Board to strike a more hawkish tone in recent weeks, with the market now pricing in over 150bp of rate hikes over the next year. For now, softer-than-expected CPI data this month give the Board a bit of breathing space to wait for the outcome of 2026 minimum wage negotiations before year end.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
13/12/2025	1500/1600		EU	ECB Cipollone Fireside Chat at Atreju 2025, Rome
15/12/2025	2350/0850	***	JP	Tankan
15/12/2025	-		GB	Bank of England Meeting
15/12/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
15/12/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Retail Sales
15/12/2025	0200/1000	***	CN	Industrial Output
15/12/2025	0200/1000	**	CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
15/12/2025	1000/0500	*	CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/12/2025	1000/1100	**	EU	EZ Industrial Production
15/12/2025	1315/0815	**	CA	CMHC Housing Starts
15/12/2025	1330/0830	**	CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
15/12/2025	1330/0830	***	CA	CPI
15/12/2025	1430/0930		US	Fed Governor Stephen Miran
15/12/2025	1500/1000	**	US	NAHB Home Builder Index
15/12/2025	1530/1030		US	New York Fed's John Williams
15/12/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
15/12/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
16/12/2025	2200/0900	***	AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
16/12/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
16/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
16/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
16/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
16/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
16/12/2025	0815/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0815/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0830/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0830/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
16/12/2025	0900/1000	**	IT	Italy Final HICP
16/12/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
16/12/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Services PMI flash
16/12/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
16/12/2025	1000/1100	*	EU	Trade Balance
16/12/2025	1000/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
16/12/2025	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
16/12/2025	1000/1100		IT	Foreign Trade
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
16/12/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
16/12/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash)
16/12/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
16/12/2025	1500/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
16/12/2025	1500/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
16/12/2025	1730/1230		CA	BOC Gov Macklem speech in Montreal
17/12/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
17/12/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
17/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Consumer Inflation Report (1dp)
17/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Producer Prices
17/12/2025	0700/1500	**	CN	MNI China Money Market Index (MMI)
17/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Consumer Inflation Report (2dp)
17/12/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	IFO Business Climate Index
17/12/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
17/12/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
17/12/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
17/12/2025	1100/1100	**	GB	CBI Industrial Trends
17/12/2025	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
17/12/2025	1315/0815		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
17/12/2025	1330/0830	*	CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/12/2025	1405/0905		US	New York Fed's John Williams
17/12/2025	1530/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
17/12/2025	1530/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
17/12/2025	1730/1230		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
17/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
18/12/2025	2145/1045	***	NZ	GDP
18/12/2025	-		EU	European Central Bank Meeting
18/12/2025	-		NO	NorgesBank Meeting
18/12/2025	-		JP	Bank of Japan Meeting
18/12/2025	-		SE	Riksbank Meeting
18/12/2025	0745/0845	**	FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
18/12/2025	0830/0930	***	SE	Riksbank Interest Rate Decison
18/12/2025	0900/1000	***	NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
18/12/2025	1000/1100	**	EU	EZ Construction Output
18/12/2025	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
18/12/2025	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
18/12/2025	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Deposit Rate
18/12/2025	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
18/12/2025	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
18/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
18/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
18/12/2025	1330/0830	*	CA	Payroll employment
18/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
18/12/2025	1330/0830	*	US	Current Account Balance
18/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	CPI
18/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	CPI
18/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	CPI
18/12/2025	1345/1445		EU	ECB Press Conference
18/12/2025	1445/1545		EU	ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections
18/12/2025	1515/1615		EU	ECB Lagarde Presents Rate Decision on ECB Podcast
18/12/2025	1530/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
18/12/2025	1600/1100	**	US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
18/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
18/12/2025	1900/1400	***	MX	Mexico Interest Rate
18/12/2025	2100/1600	**	US	TICS
19/12/2025	2330/0830	***	JP	CPI
19/12/2025	0001/0001	**	GB	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
19/12/2025	0300/1200	***	JP	BOJ Policy Rate Announcement
19/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Public Sector Finances
19/12/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	PPI
19/12/2025	0700/0800	*	DE	GFK Consumer Climate
19/12/2025	0700/0800	**	SE	Retail Sales
19/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	Retail Sales
19/12/2025	0745/0845	**	FR	PPI
19/12/2025	0800/0900	**	SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
19/12/2025	0830/0930		EU	ECB Wage Tracker
19/12/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	EZ Current Account
19/12/2025	0900/1000	**	IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
19/12/2025	0900/1000	**	IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
19/12/2025	1100/1100	**	GB	CBI Distributive Trades
19/12/2025	1200/1300		EU	ECB Cipollone Remarks, Roundtable at Aspen Institute
19/12/2025	1200/1200		GB	BOE Market Participants Survey
19/12/2025	1330/0830	**	CA	Retail Trade
19/12/2025	1400/1500	**	BE	BNB Business Confidence
19/12/2025	1500/1000	***	US	NAR existing home sales
19/12/2025	1500/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
19/12/2025	1500/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation
19/12/2025	1500/1600	**	EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
19/12/2025	1510/1610		EU	ECB Lane Lecture at Central Bank of Ireland
19/12/2025	1630/1630		GB	BOE to announce APF Q4 Sales Schedule
19/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
19/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
19/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly