MNI Global Week Ahead - Riksbank, SNB, Flash PMIs and US Data
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
MONDAY - PBOC LPR Decision
China releases the decision on their Loan Prime Rates next week with expectations being that no change is likely. The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is based on a weighted average of lending rates from 18 commercial banks, which will submit their LPR quotations, based on what they have bid for PBOC liquidity in open market operations, to the national interbank funding centre before 9am on the 20th of every month. The PBOC kept key lending rates at record lows during the August fixing, in line with our expectations and with the PBOC expecting movement from the Federal Reserve. The decision to hold was made amidst mounting signs of moderating growth under the threat of potentially high US tariffs. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR)—the benchmark for most corporate and household loans—was held steady at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, which guides mortgage rates, remained unchanged at 3.5%. Data released last week showed a slowing in retail sales, industrial production as well as the ongoing decline in property prices. Newswire headlines have noted that the PBoC Governor, head of the CSRC and the NFRA Minister will hold a press briefing on Monday, though no further colour is available at this time.
TUESDAY - Riksbank Decision
The Riksbank’s September decision will be a very close call between a hold at 2.00% and a 25bp cut to 1.75%. There are credible reasons to motivate either decision, and this is reflected in a split analyst consensus. We suspect the Board will be equally split (but don’t necessarily think that will be reflected in any formal dissents), with some members advocating for a form of insurance cut given a still-weak labour market and signs that the recent inflation uptick was temporary, and others preferring to wait for more data before determining if another cut is necessary. On balance, we lean slightly in favour of a cut given the dovish signals from some members in the August meeting minutes, but have little conviction in this view. The September decision includes an updated MPR and rate path projection. We expect a small upward revision compared to June, but not enough to change the broader picture – the Riksbank is at or very near the end of its easing cycle.
TUESDAY - Eurozone September Flash PMIs
Next week's Eurozone calendar is headlined by the September flash PMIs. Consensus expects the composite PMI to inch up to 51.1 from 51.0 in August, driven by a small uptick in the manufacturing component to 50.8 (VS 50.7 prior). Services is expected to remain at 50.5, after printing at 51.0 in July. The Eurozone-wide composite PMI has been gradually improving in recent months, but this has largely been a function of a recovery in manufacturing. While welcomed after several years of manufacturing malaise following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the services sector is much more important in terms of total value added. A deterioration in services sentiment (and by extension actual activity) would be one pre-requisite for another rate cut this cycle. At present, ECB-dated OIS price just 4bps of easing through year-end, with ~10bps of cuts priced through July 2026. German and French PMI data will be released before the Eurozone-wide reading, with consensus expecting a small uptick in Germany but a downtick in France.
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The National Bank of Hungary is widely expected to keep both the 6.50% base rate and its hawkish guidance unchanged again this month. Despite the strengthening of the forint to new cycle highs, the NBH is likely to remain focused on addressing persistently high inflation expectations. Among sell-side, many analysts now expect no change in rates for the remainder of the year, with some anticipating no change for most of 2026 as well.
WEDNESDAY - CNB Decision (Czech Republic)
Latest communications signalled the Bank Board's preference for keeping interest rates on hold, with some members stating that cuts are probably over for now. The panel is widely expected to stay put next week amid concerns about robust wage growth, persistent services inflation, and fiscal uncertainty.
THURSDAY - SNB Decision
The SNB is expected to hold rates at 0.00% on Thursday, with only 1/18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a cut into negative territory. OIS markets also price a very small implied probability of a rate move. Following the August CPI reading (headline 0.2% Y/Y, in line with consensus; core 0.7% Y/Y vs 0.8% consensus), average Q3 inflation stands marginally below the forecast made by the SNB in June. Continued positive inflation prints should skew near term policy expectations away from further easing into negative territory. Since June, the nominal and real effective exchange rates have continued to strengthen, albeit to a much lesser extent than in Q2 (i.e. March – June). The policy statement is likely to re-iterate that the SNB "remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary." Note that in a speech published on September 10, SNB Chair Schlegel announced that from the September meeting, the bank will start publishing meeting summaries four weeks after the monetary policy decision.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US Q3 GDP Third Read and Annual Revisions; August PCE
Thursday sees the third release for Q2 national accounts covering GDP and PCE amongst other components. GDP growth is expected to be unrevised at 3.3% annualized although personal consumption could be revised up to 1.9% annualized according to a limited early sample of analysts. Final domestic demand (or PDFP per Powell’s terminology) will be watched after being revised up to a second consecutive quarter at 1.9% annualized in the second Q2 release, still down from the 3% averaged through 2024. Note as well that this release comes with the BEA's annual update, which rather than just altering the prior quarter will see changes going back to 1Q20. That should see greater focus on a third release than would usually be the case, including when it comes to the recent core PCE profile.
Friday’s monthly Personal Income and Outlays report for August will then provide greater clarity on recent momentum. That could include solid consumption growth after a stronger than expected retail sales report for August. Core PCE will also be watched with it widely expected to print softer than the 0.35% M/M seen for core CPI. We saw unrounded core PCE estimates with a median around 0.20-0.21% M/M after the mid-month PPI and CPI releases which could have been lifted by 1bp after import price data. As things stand, that would mark some moderation after the 0.27% M/M in July and 0.26% M/M in June, but would still be a fourth consecutive month running above 2% annualized.
Away from data, mention goes to heavy Fedspeak after last week’s FOMC decision. The committee remains particularly divided: taking into account of Wednesday’s cut, 6 members don’t want any more cuts this year (in addition to 1 dot who would have preferred not to cut at all), 2 look for one cut, 9 look for two cuts (i.e. one each meeting) and Miran wants to see rates another 125bp lower.
THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)
After slowing the easing pace in August, the Banxico committee is expected to deliver another 25bp rate reduction, taking the overnight target rate to 7.5%. After dissenting in favour of a rate hold at the two previous meetings, there will be the usual attention on Deputy Governor Heath’s vote, as he continues to focus his rhetoric around the stalling progress for core inflation. Separately, the continued appreciation of the Mexican peso and the Fed back in easing mode bolster the likelihood of the committee maintaining its guidance in assessing further adjustments to the reference rate ahead.
FRIDAY - Japan September Tokyo CPI
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 22/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 22/09/2025 | 1230/1330 |  GB | BOE Pill At BIS-ECB-SUERF Workshop | |
| 22/09/2025 | 1345/1545 |  EU | ECB Lane At BIS-ECB-SUERF Workshop | |
| 22/09/2025 | 1345/0945 |  US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 22/09/2025 | 1400/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 22/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 22/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 22/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 22/09/2025 | 1600/1200 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 22/09/2025 | 1600/1200 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 22/09/2025 | 1715/1315 | CA | BOC Sr Deputy speaks at LSE panel on supervision | |
| 22/09/2025 | 1800/1900 | GB | BOE Bailey Fireside Chat On Supervision | |
| 22/09/2025 | 1945/1545 | CA | BOC Deputy Kozicki speaks at BIS panel on central bank frameworks | |
| 23/09/2025 | 2300/0900 | *** |  AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 23/09/2025 | - |  SE | Riksbank Meeting | |
| 23/09/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/09/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** | SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
| 23/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 23/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 23/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 23/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 23/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 23/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | GB | BOE Pill Fireside Chat At Pictet Research Institute Symposium | |
| 23/09/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 23/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | US | Current Account Balance |
| 23/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 23/09/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 23/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 23/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 23/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 23/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 23/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 23/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 23/09/2025 | 1420/1620 | EU | ECB Cipollone In Bloomberg Fireside Chat | |
| 23/09/2025 | 1635/1235 | US | Fed Chair Jay Powell | |
| 23/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 23/09/2025 | 1815/1415 | CA | BOC Governor Macklem speech in Saskatoon | |
| 24/09/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 24/09/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 24/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 24/09/2025 | 0600/1400 | ** |  CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
| 24/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 24/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 24/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 24/09/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 24/09/2025 | 1300/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 24/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 24/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 24/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 24/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 24/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 24/09/2025 | 1630/1730 | GB | BOE Greene On Supply Shocks and MonPol | |
| 24/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 24/09/2025 | 2010/1610 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 25/09/2025 | - |  CH | Swiss National Bank Meeting | |
| 25/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | PPI |
| 25/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 25/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** | CH | SNB Interest Rate Decision |
| 25/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 25/09/2025 | 1220/0820 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 25/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 25/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 25/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 25/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 25/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP / PCE Quarterly |
| 25/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 25/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 25/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 25/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 25/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 25/09/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 25/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 25/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 25/09/2025 | 1740/1340 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 25/09/2025 | 1900/1500 | *** |  MX | Mexico Interest Rate |
| 25/09/2025 | 1930/1530 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 26/09/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 26/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | GDP (f) |
| 26/09/2025 | 0715/0915 | EU | ECB Cipollone At ECB-CEPR Conference | |
| 26/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 26/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 26/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 26/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 26/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 26/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 26/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 26/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 26/09/2025 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
