MNI Global Week Ahead: Politics, ECB and US CPI In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
SUNDAY - OPEC+ Meeting
OPEC+ quota unwinds have surprised the markets this year as speculation ahead of its September 7 meet grows. A lack of barrels hitting the market has somewhat kept pressure off but bearish fears grow that OPEC+ is taking market share more seriously and stock builds could emerge post summer.
THROUGH THE WEEK - China Data
Next week China releases will give further evidence as to whether the recovery is taking hold. China releases trade data next week with exports forecast to gain +5.4% (from +7.2% in July), and imports to rise modestly to +4.3%. Aggregate financing will be watched closely as efforts to revive housing remain ongoing after multi-year declines. On Wednesday CPI and PPI will be released for August and forecasts expect more of the same. China's PPI has declined consistently since 2022 and the August forecasts of -2.9% suggests more of the same is anticipated. CPI has oscillated around zero since early 2023 and the current forecasts for August are for a result of -0.2% YoY.
MONDAY - Japan LDP Leadership Vote
On Monday, the LDP will vote to decide whether to bring forward its leadership election, following weak results in Upper and Lower house elections in recent months. For now, PM Ishiba has signalled his intention to remain as leader, most recently after Japan finalised a deal with the US to reduce auto tariffs to 15%.
MONDAY - French No-confidence Vote
On Monday, French PM Bayrou is expected to be ousted by a no-confidence vote. Parties on the right and left of the political spectrum have expressed a lack of confidence in Bayrou's fragile administration, exacerbated by his contractionary 2026 budget plans presented before the summer recess. That leaves markets focusing on the fallout of the vote. Sources suggest President Macron wants to avoid calling another snap election, suggesting the only path forward for French politics is for a new PM to find support for a watered down set of 2026 budget proposals. The Socialist Party have proposed a budget that includes E22bln of fiscal consolidation measures, half of the E44bln planned by Bayrou.
MONDAY / WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - Norway Election, August Inflation and Q3 Regional Network Survey
Norwegian voters go to the polls on 8 September to elect a new parliament or ‘Storting’. Incumbent Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre is seeking a second term in office for his centre left Labour party amid rising public concerns regarding economic inequality, the cost of living, the labour market and tax rates. The most likely outcome of the election is the continuity of the current administration under Labour, either in coalition with other parties of the left, or in a confidence and supply agreement as a minority government.
The election is not expected to have a major impact on NOK FX and rate market pricing, with analysts and political observers anticipating few material changes in the aggregate fiscal policy stance across potential election result outcomes. As such, this should have limited impact on Norges Bank’s policy rate outlook ahead of the September 18 decision. Norges Bank and markets will be much more focused on the August inflation and Q3 Regional Network data, released next Wednesday and Thursday next week respectively. Early Bloomberg consensus sees CPI-ATE inflation at 2.9% Y/Y (vs 3.1% prior). If realised, this would be two tenths below Norges Bank's June MPR projections and potentially pave the way for a September rate cut - which is already the baseline view amongst analysts. The Regional Network Survey will be important to gauge activity signals for the second half of the year, with captivity utilisation measures also watched to assess the degree of slack in the economy.
TUESDAY - US CES Benchmark Revision
The BLS on Tuesday will publish preliminary estimates of benchmark revisions, based off QCEW data for Q1. Initial estimates we’ve seen look for another large downward revision, with the smallest being worth -550k but with wide ranges higher. These will give an indication of the actual benchmark revisions on the Mar 2025 level of payrolls due with the Jan 2026 payrolls report released in early February. Bear in mind that the final benchmark estimate tends to nearly always be more negative than the preliminary figure – see historical values to the right. That doesn’t mean they can’t be large again after last year’s historically negative revision that lowered the level of payrolls by ~600k.
TUESDAY - BCCh Decision (Chile)
After firmer than expected CPI stats last month and recent upbeat non-mining activity data, the BCCh is expected keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% on Tuesday. Despite the volatility of CPI inflation recently, however, GDP has developed as the central bank projected, and inflation expectations are largely unchanged. As such, the BCCh is expected to maintain its forward guidance for further gradual cuts to a neutral range in the coming quarters, and recent survey data point to market expectations for another rate cut before year end.
WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - US August PPI and CPI
US PPI inflation is released on Wednesday before CPI inflation on Thursday, an unusual ordering that should see core PCE implications dialled in after the CPI release rather than the usual wide range waiting for specific PPI details. PPI will be watched more closely than usual this month after a far stronger than expected jump in last month’s July report fired a warning short over tariff-based cost pressures starting to feed through. That included a 0.6% M/M increase in our preferred core series of PPI ex food, energy & trade services, which strips out items such as the then booming portfolio management & investment advice category following the strength in equity markets. It's too early to gauge an accurate sense of analyst expectations for August.
CPI inflation on Thursday will then be the last major release ahead of the Sep 17 FOMC decision. Consensus looks for core CPI at 0.3% M/M after the 0.32% M/M in July, another monthly increase comfortably above a pace consistent with 2% inflation. August should in theory start to see the largest tariff impacts along with September and possibly October. Returning to July’s report, core goods inflation was softer than expected, at a still solid (by core goods standards) 0.2% M/M for a second month running but about half that of 0.4% expected by analysts. Instead, non-housing core services surprised higher. The latter was a “dangerous” development in the words of a usually dovish Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter), who speaking after Friday’s payrolls report is still undecided on a September cut whilst looking for August inflation data “to get more information”.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
The CBRT had been widely expected to deliver another 300bp cut to the one-week repo rate, which would have taken it to 40% in September. However, the recent episode of political turmoil and the latest above-expectations inflation data has prompted some sell-side analysts to adjust their calls, with a less severe reduction now anticipated. Nonetheless, CBRT Governor Karahan said the breakdown of August’s inflation numbers and second-quarter growth showed that demand-driven price pressures are easing.
THURSDAY - ECB Decision
The ECB is unanimously expected to keep rates on hold at 2.00% on Thursday, with OIS markets assigning virtually zero implied probability of such a move. Developments over the summer have done little to push back on President Lagarde's hawkish signalling at the ECB's July press conference. Economic indicators such as the PMIs continue to gradually improve, the unemployment rate is at all-time lows, and inflation remains very close to the 2.0% medium-term target. Additionally, the EU-US trade agreement has significantly reduced trade policy uncertainty, even if the agreed 15% baseline tariff rate is above the ECB's June projection baseline of 10%.
There appears to be little to no appetite for a September rate cut amongst ECB Governing Council members. However, the MNI Policy Team's most recent source piece suggested the risk bias among policymakers remains cautiously to the downside as they maintain a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, with eurozone inflation already around the 2% target and likely to weaken. ECB-dated OIS currently price just under 10bps of easing through year-end, with 19bps of cuts through July 2026.
Based on the analyst previews we have seen so far, changes to the ECB's September macroeconomic projections relative to June are expected to be centred in 2025 (resulting from technical assumption updates and carryover from recent GDP/inflation releases). For 2026 and 2027, analysts don’t expected major changes to core HICP and real GDP projections.
THURSDAY - BCRP Decision (Peru)
Despite the sharp fall of headline CPI inflation in August, a slight majority of analysts currently lean towards the BCRP keeping the policy rate unchanged at 4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday. Nonetheless, the benign inflation backdrop – with headline inflation at a seven-year low and core still below the 2% target – skews risks towards a renewed cut next week, and forward guidance is likely to keep the door open to further easing ahead.
FRIDAY - CBR Decision (Russia)
The CBR is unanimously expected to reduce its key rate again, however, the scale of such move remains uncertain. 12 of the 23 analysts polled by Vedomosti newspaper are expecting another 200bp cut - which would take the rate to 16% - while 8 expect a more cautious 100bp step. The remaining 3 are uncertain between either 100bps or 200bps. Meanwhile, Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin has said elevated inflation expectations limit the room to reduce the key rate.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 08/09/2025 | 2301/0001 |  GB | KPMG / REC Report on Jobs | |
| 08/09/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** |  JP | GDP |
| 08/09/2025 | 2350/0850 | JP | Balance of Payments | |
| 08/09/2025 | 0500/1400 | JP | Economy Watcher's Survey | |
| 08/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | Trade Balance |
| 08/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production |
| 08/09/2025 | - | *** |  CN | Trade |
| 08/09/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** |  US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 08/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 08/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 08/09/2025 | 1900/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
| 09/09/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 09/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | * |  FR | Industrial Production |
| 09/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 09/09/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 09/09/2025 | 1150/1350 |  CH | SNB's Schlegel at BIS fireside chat | |
| 09/09/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 09/09/2025 | 1515/1615 | GB | BOE Breeden Moderates BIS Fireside Chat | |
| 09/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 10/09/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CPI |
| 10/09/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 10/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | Industrial Production |
| 10/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 10/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 10/09/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 10/09/2025 | 1145/1345 | CH | SNB's Schlegel on Central Bank Communication in Vezia | |
| 10/09/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 10/09/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 10/09/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 10/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 10/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 10/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 10/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 10/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 10/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 10/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 11/09/2025 | - |  EU | European Central Bank Meeting | |
| 11/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 11/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 11/09/2025 | 1100/0700 | *** |  TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 11/09/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 11/09/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 11/09/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 11/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 11/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 11/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Household debt-to-income |
| 11/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 11/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 11/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 11/09/2025 | 1245/1445 | EU | ECB Press Conference | |
| 11/09/2025 | 1415/1615 | EU | ECB Lagarde Presents Rate Decision on ECB Podcast | |
| 11/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 11/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 11/09/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
| 12/09/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 12/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 12/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 12/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 12/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Production |
| 12/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 12/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 12/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 12/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (f) |
| 12/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (f) |
| 12/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey |
| 12/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | Labour Market Quarterly Statistics | |
| 12/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Building Permits |
| 12/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Services Revenues |
| 12/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 12/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 12/09/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 12/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 12/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
