MNI Global Week Ahead: Plenty Of Data To Start December
Developed Markets
THROUGH THE WEEK - US Data
Next week would ordinarily have been geared towards a nonfarm payrolls report on Friday but that of course has been rescheduled for Dec 16 as the BLS continues to work its way through the shutdown-induced data backlog. Instead, expect the myriad of labor releases starting Wednesday along with ISM surveys and monthly PCE data to help finalize market expectations ahead of the Dec 9-10 FOMC meeting - we currently anticipate a hawkish cut. Within the labor releases, the monthly ADP employment report for November will continue to be important – with declines in recent weekly updates - but we also flag Thursday's releases for Challenger job cuts and Revelio Labs' labor statistics for November. The October Challenger report showed a sharp increase in layoffs to its highest for an October since 2003 along with tepid hiring plans over Sep-Oct combined, whilst the Revelio nonfarm payrolls estimate drew a dovish market reaction last month when it pointed to nonfarm payrolls growth of -9k in October.
As for ISM surveys, consensus looks for little improvement in Monday’s manufacturing survey, with regional Fed surveys on balance slightly stronger on the month versus a sharp deterioration in the MNI Chicago PMI. The still early days for the services analyst survey sees a modest dip to 52.0 having oscillated between 52.0-52.5 in the previous four months. The service PMI – at 55.0 in the November flash – has been more optimistic in each of the prior six months but with varied beats each time. The delayed personal income and outlays report for September then rounds out the week on Friday. This week’s retail sales release will have dampened goods-related expectations for consumer spending. We’ll also watch income dynamics after they underwhelmed in the August report released two months ago, seeing the savings rate dropping to an eight-month low. Core PCE inflation estimates appears to be tracking around 0.22% M/M for September, similar to the 0.23% M/M in August and the 0.24% averaged through May-July although with some seeing scope for minor upward revisions to Aug and Jul.
TUESDAY - Eurozone November Flash Inflation
Our tracking estimate for Eurozone HICP comes in line with consensus at 2.1%Y/Y with two-way risks (our unrounded tracking is currently at 2.11%). This is based on just over 4/5 (81.4%) of the country reports with flash HICP having come from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Slovenia so far. On Monday we are due to receive Irish HICP with the Netherlands and Austria both due to release prints on Tuesday ahead of the pan-Eurozone print. Country-level data has not had much impact on front-end ECB pricing. ECB-dated OIS continue to price ~8bps of easing through September 2026. We think spot inflation may need to start undershooting the target before markets become more sympathetic to the idea of another 25bp cut this cycle.
WEDNESDAY - Australia Q3 GDP
Q3 private capex volumes soared 6.4% q/q, the fastest since Q1 2012, setting up the 3 December GDP release for a solid increase at this stage. Real Q3 household consumption rose 0.2% q/q and construction work done fell 0.7% q/q. Key components though are out in the days before GDP with inventories on 1 December and net export and public demand contributions on 2 December. Productivity and unit labour costs will also be released with GDP and could be particularly important given the recent rise in inflation above the RBA's 2-3% band.
FRIDAY - Eurozone Q3 GDP (Third Read)
The third reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is not expected to be a major market mover. GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% Q/Q. However, the release will contain interesting and important details on the expenditure and income breakdowns of GDP. In particular, we will look at data on compensation per employee and associated unit labour cost growth. Wages are generally considered a leading indicator for annual services inflation, which remains above 3% Y/Y. The ECB forecasted a notable step down in compensation per employee growth to 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.9% in Q2) in its September projection round.
FRIDAY - Canada November Labour Market Report
Friday’s labour force survey should help shape expectations for how long the BoC is likely to remain on hold for after in October signalling a pause ahead. The overnight rate of 2.25% is deemed “about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment." Employment growth is likely to slow materially in November and could decline after a far stronger than expected 67k increase in October that came entirely from part-time positions. The monthly changes have been volatile for some time now whilst the unemployment rate helps gives a better sense of labour market pressures. Bloomberg consensus currently eyes a 7.0% unemployment rate, albeit with only seven estimates for now, to lift again after a surprisingly low 6.9% in October pulled back from two months at 7.1% at what were the highest since mid-2021. Having increased through 2023 and 2024, the climb in the unemployment rate has levelled off having averaged 6.9% since late 2024.
Emerging Markets
SUNDAY / MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - China PMIs
Over the weekend and into next week, the key releases for China data will be the official PMIs on Sunday followed by the RatingDog PMIs on the 1st. The official PMIs give a snapshot of state-owned enterprises whilst the RatingDog (formerly CAIXIN) reflects private and export-oriented companies. There has been an ongoing divide between the two with the Official PMI Manufacturing in contraction since April whilst the Ratingdog Manufacturing has expanded for the last three releases. Expectations are for a continuation of these trends in November, with the Official PMI Manufacturing to remain modestly in contraction and the RatingDog in line with last month at 50.5. Services for the Official PMIs have been anchored around 50 in recent releases and forecast to remain the same. The RatingDog PMI Services in October topped 52.6, its equal best for the year and is widely expected to moderate back towards 51.9 for November.
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
Market participants have increased their bets on a 25bp rate cut following a run of dovish macroeconomic data. Headline inflation unexpectedly fell below the NBP’s +2.5% Y/Y target, while nominal wage growth eased significantly more than expected, despite signs that the domestic economy continues to perform strongly.
FRIDAY - RBI Decision (India)
The RBI is expected to cut the Repurchase Rate by 25bps to 5.25% on Friday. Just a week ago, one-month forward swaps were priced for just 6bps of easing, but a recent interview from Governor Malhotra drove a significant dovish repricing. Swaps now price just under 20bps of easing over the next month. Malhotra noted to Zee Business that at the October meeting, the communication was clear that there was room to cut policy interest rates. He said that since then, the macro-economic data has not indicated that the room to lower rates has diminished. However, he emphasized that even though the room is there, whether a rate cut happens at the next meeting is up to the MPC. He pointed to the very low inflation — India's retail inflation fell to about 0.25 % in October — as a factor that gives the RBI space to consider easing.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 30/11/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/11/2025 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/12/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/12/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/12/2025 | 0030/1130 | AU | Business Indicators | |
| 01/12/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/12/2025 | 0730/0830 | ** |  CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/12/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/12/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/12/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/12/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 01/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 01/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 01/12/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/12/2025 | 1530/1530 | GB | DMO to hold FQ4 consultations with investors / GEMMs | |
| 01/12/2025 | 1530/1530 | GB | BOE Dhingra Keynote at UK Trade Policy Observatory | |
| 01/12/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 01/12/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 02/12/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02/12/2025 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
| 02/12/2025 | 0030/1130 | AU | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
| 02/12/2025 | 0700/0700 | GB | BOE Financial Stability Report | |
| 02/12/2025 | 0745/0845 | FR | Budget Balance | |
| 02/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | IT | Unemployment | |
| 02/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Unemployment |
| 02/12/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 02/12/2025 | 1000/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 02/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Flash |
| 02/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Flash |
| 02/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Flash |
| 02/12/2025 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 02/12/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 03/12/2025 | 2200/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 03/12/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 03/12/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 03/12/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 03/12/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly GDP |
| 03/12/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
| 03/12/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
| 03/12/2025 | 0700/0200 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/12/2025 | 0730/0830 | *** | CH | CPI |
| 03/12/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 03/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 03/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ PPI |
| 03/12/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 03/12/2025 | 1030/1130 | EU | ECB Lane Keynote at Workshop on Exchange Rates | |
| 03/12/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 03/12/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 03/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 03/12/2025 | 1330/1430 | EU | ECB Lagarde Statement at ECON Hearing | |
| 03/12/2025 | 1415/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 03/12/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 03/12/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 03/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 03/12/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 03/12/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 03/12/2025 | 1530/1630 | EU | ECB Lagarde Statement at ECON Hearing | |
| 03/12/2025 | 1700/1700 | GB | BOE Mann in Panel on Reserve Currencies | |
| 04/12/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 04/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** |  SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 04/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 04/12/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
| 04/12/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | GB | BOE Decision Maker Panel Data | |
| 04/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Retail Sales |
| 04/12/2025 | 1245/1245 | GB | BOE Mann Panel at European and Global Issues Conference | |
| 04/12/2025 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB Cipollone Chairs Panel on Fiscal Policy | |
| 04/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 04/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 04/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | * |  CA | Ivey PMI |
| 04/12/2025 | 1500/1600 | EU | ECB Lane at Fiscal Policy Conference | |
| 04/12/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 04/12/2025 | 1800/1900 | EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Business Innovation Awards | |
| 05/12/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
| 05/12/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 05/12/2025 | 0730/0730 | GB | DMO to publish issuance calendar for FQ4 | |
| 05/12/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/12/2025 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 05/12/2025 | 0800/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | EZ GDP 3rd (Regular) |
| 05/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 05/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 05/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 05/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 05/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 05/12/2025 | 1510/1610 | EU | ECB Lane in Panel at CEPR Paris Symposium | |
| 05/12/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 05/12/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 05/12/2025 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 05/12/2025 | 2000/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
