MNI Global Week Ahead - NFPs, ISM Surveys and EZ Inflation
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
MONDAY/WEDNESDAY - Eurozone Final Mfg/Service PMIs
The Eurozone final PMI surveys for August are due for manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday. The flash PMIs were surprisingly robust as the composite increased to 51.1 for another 0.2pt improvement, up from the 50.4 averaged in 1H25 and its highest since May 2024. Drivers were mixed however, with manufacturing leading the monthly improvement to 50.5 whilst services cooled to 50.7 as the two closed what has been sizeable divergence. This week's final readings should confirm that countries other than Germany and France have still been outperforming but by less than previous months. Since the flash PMI release, the European Commission's economic confidence index was softer than expected in August as it shifted back close to levels averaged in 1H25 and is comfortably below its long-term average.
TUESDAY - Eurozone HICP August Preliminary Release
Based on just over 80% of data we track Eurozone HICP at between 1.9-2.0%Y/Y, which is lower than Bloomberg consensus forecasts of 2.1%Y/Y. We have so far received data from France, Italy and Spain that was a tenth below consensus estimates. German HICP was a tenth above forecast. There was no consensus for HICP from Belgium, Portugal or Slovenia. Ahead of the Eurozone print on Tuesday the most notable further country releases will be Ireland on Monday followed by the Netherlands and Austria on Tuesday.
TUESDAY/THURSDAY - US ISM Mfg/Services For August
August's ISM Manufacturing report (out Tuesday Sep 2nd 1000ET) is seen by Bloomberg Consensus as showing a slight improvement to 48.9 from July's 48.0. The theme of general improvement is evident in the regional Fed banks' manufacturing surveys, which showed a 5th consecutive month of improvement on aggregate after April's trough, albeit roughly steady from July. Meanwhile for Prices Paid, expectations are for a slight pickup to 65.0 from 64.8 prior. This looks to be on the low side versus the recent increase in regional Fed input prices indices: after a near 5-point pullback in July, we wouldn't be surprised by a rebound back toward the high 60s mark. For ISM Services, out Thursday Sep 4th, it’s still a little early to gauge consensus (currently 50.8 vs 50.1 in Jul), but we wouldn’t be surprised to see similar dynamics overall as for Manufacturing.
WEDNESDAY - Australia Q2 GDP
The consensus is for Australian Q2 GDP to rise 0.5%q/q. This follows a 0.2% gain in Q1. If realized this would see y/y growth nudge higher to 1.7%. We still have further partials for the Q2 to come early next week, with inventories, net exports and public demand having scope to change market expectations between now and next Wednesday's outcome. The Q2 print will be in focus from a headline growth standpoint, but also the breakdown of growth, with private demand notably soft in the past 12 months.
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
The NBP will reflect on interest rates after its traditional two-month summer break. Most analysts expect the MPC to authorise another 25bp reduction in the reference rate, bringing it to 4.75%. Expectations of a rate cut were boosted by the release of below-forecast flash August CPI data, where headline inflation came in at +2.9% Y/Y. Sell-side analysts noted a likely deceleration of core inflation, which would be welcome news for the rate-setting panel, alongside evidence of normalising wage growth.
WEDNESDAY - BOE Members Testify
Four BOE MPC members will testify ahead of the Treasury Select Committee with regards to the August MPR on Wednesday. We will hear from Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Lombardelli as well as external members Greene and Taylor. Lombardelli gave little away regarding her personal view at the MPR press conference early in August but noted that she would elaborate on her rationale for a hawkish dissent (to keep Bank Rate on hold) in this forum. Similarly Greene has not made any notable public comments since her dissent in August either. Taylor is known to be a dove - and favoured a larger 50bp cut in August (cementing him as the most dovish member of the Committee). The main focus will be on Governor Bailey's remarks, however. We think that he is the key swing voter and his vote is likely a necessity if we are to see a November or December cut (which at the time of writing only had 5bp and 10bp cumulatively priced).
THURSDAY - BNM Decision (Malaysia)
The BNM meets on Thursday and whilst some market commentators are suggesting that a rate cut is in the pipeline, market consensus and pricing suggests it may not be this meeting. Data continues to be mixed in Malaysia with Industrial production higher, PMIs continuing to contract and the resultant GDP outcome, moderately lower than forecast. Despite this, we think that the BNM will remain patient and likely deliver one further cut at later meetings, remaining on hold next week.
FRIDAY - US Nonfarm Payrolls
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for August is going to be watched extremely closely after last month’s weak July report has subsequently set the tone for price action. The Fed is highly sensitive to downside growth surprises in the labor market. Last month’s report was particularly notable for its huge downward revisions of -258k, the largest in at least forty-five years when excluding April 2020 of the pandemic, leaving a picture of a sharp cooling in labor demand. President Trump used the large revisions as justification for the highly unusual decision to fire BLS Commissioner McEntarfer shortly afterwards. Bloomberg consensus currently looks for nonfarm payrolls growth of 75k, very similar to the 73k in July, but with those two-month revisions also in focus. The unemployment rate should be viewed in equal importance to payrolls growth amidst the sharp decline in labor supply that has been seen concurrently, keeping the labor market in greater balance than would otherwise be the case. The unemployment rate is seen at 4.3% in August after rising to what was technically a cycle high of 4.25% in July but with the rate tracking between 4-4.25% ever since a high of 4.22% back in July last year. Whilst now outdated, the median FOMC forecast from the June SEP had the unemployment rate increasing to an average 4.5% in 4Q25 as part of its profile with 50bp of cuts to year end.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 31/08/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/08/2025 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/09/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/09/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | AU | Business Indicators | |
| 01/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
| 01/09/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/09/2025 | 0630/0830 | ** |  CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/09/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/09/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/09/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/09/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 01/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 01/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Unemployment |
| 01/09/2025 | 1200/1400 | EU | ECB Schnabel Chairs Panel at ECB Legal Conference | |
| 01/09/2025 | 1400/1600 | EU | ECB Cipollone Chairs Panel at ECB Legal Conference | |
| 01/09/2025 | 1700/1900 | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech at ECB Legal Conference | |
| 02/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | AU | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
| 02/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | IT | PPI |
| 02/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Flash |
| 02/09/2025 | 1130/1330 | EU | ECB Elderson and Machado Panel at ECB Legal Conference | |
| 02/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** |  US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 02/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 02/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 02/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 02/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 02/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 02/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 03/09/2025 | 2300/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 03/09/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 03/09/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 03/09/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 03/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly GDP |
| 03/09/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
| 03/09/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
| 03/09/2025 | 0700/0300 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/09/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | EU | ECB Lagarde Speaks at ESRB Conference | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0730/0830 | GB | BOE Mann at Signum's London Westminster Day roundtable | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0815/0915 | GB | BOE Breeden at Innovation in Money and Payments Conference | |
| 03/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 03/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 03/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ PPI |
| 03/09/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 03/09/2025 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/09/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 03/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1315/1415 | GB | BOE testify at TSC: Bailey, Greene, Lombardelli, Taylor | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 03/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 03/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 03/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 03/09/2025 | 1730/1330 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 03/09/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 04/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 04/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 04/09/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** | CH | CPI |
| 04/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
| 04/09/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | GB | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 04/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04/09/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 04/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Retail Sales |
| 04/09/2025 | 0930/1130 | EU | ECB Cipollone Speaks at Digital Euro Hearing, European Parliament | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Non-Farm Productivity (f) |
| 04/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 04/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 04/09/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 04/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 04/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Fed nominee Stephen Miran | |
| 04/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 04/09/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 04/09/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 04/09/2025 | 1605/1205 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 05/09/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | average wages (p) |
| 05/09/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
| 05/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 05/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 05/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 05/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Employment |
| 05/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EZ GDP 3rd (Regular) |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 05/09/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 05/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 05/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 05/09/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
