MNI Global Week Ahead - Jackson Hole, Flash PMIs and CBs
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
TUESDAY - Canada July CPI
July's Canadian CPI report (0830ET Tuesday) is expected to show steady core inflationary pressures on a Y/Y basis (trim/median average 3.05%, unch from June), with headline remaining below 2% (1.8% vs 1.9% prior, all Bloomberg consensus). This is the first of two CPI reports before the Bank of Canada's next decision release on Sep 17 (for which a rate cut is around 25% priced). A pullback in employment in July has helped keep further BOC easing on the table since July's hold, but the CPI data will be very closely eyed given stronger-than-expected core price momentum in Q2. Discussions about inflation "occupied much of the deliberations" surrounding the BOC's July meeting decision to hold rates, with members judging risks to be "elevated given evident pressures on underlying inflation" and tariff uncertainty.
WEDNESDAY - China LPR Decision
Next week in China sees the decision on the China Loan Prime Rate (LPR). The LPR is important because it serves as a benchmark interest rate for lending in China, influencing both loan and mortgage rates. Changes to the LPR can impact borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially affecting economic growth and financial stability. It is unlikely that the Commercial Banks will submit any changes to aid in the preservation of their margins, which have been pressurized. The PBOC has not changed its policy rates since May and given second quarter GDP in line with projections, there appears no immediate need for a cut in rates. The PBOC appears to be happy to use the 7-day reverse repo rate as its main tool at present.
WEDNESDAY - RBNZ Decision
The RBNZ meets on Wednesday August 30 and is likely to cut rates 25bp to 3.0%, the mid-point of its estimate of "neutral", after pausing at the July meeting. With measures of core inflation within the 1-3% target band, wages moderating and activity remaining subdued, the MPC is likely to determine that further easing is needed. It will also published a revised outlook.
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
BI cut rates 25bp at its July meeting but is likely to leave them at 5.25% on August 20. Inflation remains around the mid-point of BI's 1.5-3.5% target band and Q2 growth was slightly stronger than expected. FX stability remains the focus and USIDR trended higher after the last meeting peaking at 16515 on August 1 but is now 2.5% lower. This will be welcome but the pair is still above the Q4 2024 average and so BI is likely to maintain its gradual approach to easing.
WEDNESDAY - UK July CPI
UK July inflation is due on Wednesday, and will be as always be a closely watched release. Following the August BOE decision and June/July labour market data, BOE-dated OIS now price just 9bps of easing through the November meeting. A firm inflation print would see these cut expectations pare back further and cement December or February as potential candidate meetings for the next rate cut. The BOE projected July headline CPI at 3.76% Y/Y in the August MPR (vs 3.58% in June), while Bloomberg consensus currently stands at 3.7% Y/Y. Markets will continue to be sensitive to the core (consensus 3.7% Y/Y vs 3.66% prior) and services (consensus 4.8% Y/Y, BOE Aug MPR 4.88% Y/Y, vs 4.73% prior) readings, but there will also be a lot of focus on the non-core components, especially food. The August MPR contained a whole box on how food prices have impacted inflation expectations since 2022. The Bank expects food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation to accelerate to 4.74% Y/Y in July (vs 4.50% prior).
WEDNESDAY - Riksbank Decision
The Riksbank decision is due next Wednesday, with analysts and markets overwhelmingly favouring a hold at 2.00%. That will leave focus on the policy statement guidance, with no MPR/rate path due (only a concise Monetary Policy Update). After cutting rates in June, the Riksbank’s MPR rate path entailed “some probability of another cut this year”, because “the outlook for inflation and economic activity suggests some easing of monetary policy”. Heading into the August decision, the Board will need to weigh higher-than-expected spot inflation pressures against continued weakness in the labour market and activity data. The large upward inflation surprise in June, which was mostly consolidated in July, should guard against a surprise rate move. However, the Riksbank is sensitive to economic activity (particularly household consumption) and has demonstrated a willingness to lend support with monetary easing already this year. This dovish bias will likely be reaffirmed if the Board views the recent Summer inflation uptick as temporary. Based on the seven previews we have seen so far, most analysts expect the August policy statement to retain a similar dovish leaning to June, with the latest rate path signals likely to be confirmed. More pointed guidance towards a September cut would be a dovish surprise.
THURSDAY - Eurozone August Flash PMIs
After a quiet few weeks on the Eurozone data front, the August flash PMIs will provide a timely update on economic activity for Germany, France and the region as a whole. The ECB-dated OIS implied probability of a September cut is less than 10%, and only a much weaker-than-expected set of flash PMI readings (alongside a downward inflation surprise at the end of the month) could put a cut back on the table. Such an outcome appears unlikely. The composite PMI has been slowly trending higher since November 2024, with the April/May tariff-induced uncertainty only having a temporary negative impact on momentum. Early consensus sees the Eurozone-wide composite at 50.6 (vs 50.9 prior), with manufacturing at 49.5 (vs 49.8 prior) and services at 50.8 (vs 51.0 prior). The German composite PMI is seen at 50.3 (vs 50.6 prior), while France is expected to remain soft at 48.4 (vs 48.6 prior).
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY - Fed Jackson Hole Symposium
The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium takes place over Aug 21-23. While Fed officials and multiple global central bank/policy figures will be in attendance, the focus as always will be the keynote speech by the Fed Chair, with Powell speaking at 1000ET Friday Aug 22 on the "Economic Outlook and Framework Review". Attention will of course mostly be on any nod to a potential September Fed rate cut, but as the speech title indicates, a large portion of his comments will touch on the findings from the Fed's policy framework review. Changes to the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are expected to include a move away from the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) adopted in the 2020 review. At a later date, the Fed will address changes to communications policies, including potentially to the infamous Dot Plot.
FRIDAY - Japan July CPI
Japan headline CPI pressures are expected to moderate for July. The market expects a 3.1%y/y, versus 3.3% in June. Ex fresh food is forecast at 3.0%y/y from 3.3% in June. The core ex fresh food, energy measure is expected to remain steady though at 3.4%. Softer headline momentum is in line with the July PPI reading, which continued to tick down from recent highs (last at 2.6%y/y). Such an outcome would be broadly consistent with the BoJ's outlook.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 18/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | * |  EU | Trade Balance |
| 18/08/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** |  CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 18/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 18/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** |  US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 18/08/2025 | 1430/1530 |  GB | DMO likely to publish FQ3 consultation agenda | |
| 18/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 18/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 19/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 19/08/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CPI |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 19/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 19/08/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 19/08/2025 | 1810/1410 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 20/08/2025 | - |  NZ | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting | |
| 20/08/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | * |  JP | Machinery orders |
| 20/08/2025 | 0200/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer inflation report |
| 20/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | PPI |
| 20/08/2025 | 0710/0910 | EU | ECB Lagarde at WEF Intl Business Council | |
| 20/08/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** |  SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
| 20/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (f) |
| 20/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | Q2 Flash Vacancies and Labour Cost Index | |
| 20/08/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 20/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 20/08/2025 | 1500/1100 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 20/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 20/08/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | FOMC Minutes | |
| 20/08/2025 | 1900/1500 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 21/08/2025 | 2300/0900 | *** |  AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 21/08/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 21/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  NO | Norway GDP |
| 21/08/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/08/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/08/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/08/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 21/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 21/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 21/08/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 21/08/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 21/08/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 21/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Construction Production |
| 21/08/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 21/08/2025 | 1130/0730 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 21/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 21/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 21/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 21/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 21/08/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 21/08/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 21/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 21/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Services Revenues |
| 21/08/2025 | 1400/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 21/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 21/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 30 Year Bond |
| 22/08/2025 | 2301/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 22/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** | JP | CPI |
| 22/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Unemployment |
| 22/08/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 22/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | GDP (f) |
| 22/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 22/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | Q2 Negotiated Wage Growth | |
| 22/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 22/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 22/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 22/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 22/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 23/08/2025 | 1625/1725 | GB | BOE Bailey at Jackson Hole | |
| 23/08/2025 | 1625/1825 | EU | ECB Lagarde at Jackson Hole |
