MNI Global Week Ahead - Host of DM Central Banks And Data Due

Oct-24 20:07By: Emil Lundh

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:

Developed Markets

THROUGH THE WEEK - Key Eurozone Data and ECB Decision

The ECB is firmly expected to keep its policy rates on hold (deposit rate at 2.00%) and make no material guidance changes on Thursday. The current signalling that rates are in a "good place" has served the Governing Council well since September, with data and geopolitical developments keeping the baseline view intact. A "meeting-by-meeting" and "data-dependent" approach is expected to be maintained in the statement. Save for some nuances in views on both the dovish and hawkish end of the spectrum, the overwhelming message from ECB speakers since September has been that policy remains in a “good place”. The bar to another rate cut appears to be high, though policymakers haven’t fully closed the door to such a move - this narrative was explored further in the MNI Policy Team's latest sources piece.

With the ECB decision not expected to bring any surprises, market focus will be on the swathe of data due across the week. The Q3 Bank Lending Survey is due on Tuesday, and will provide a timely update on credit conditions and expectations across the region. Thursday sees Eurozone Q3 flash GDP, with consensus currently at 0.1% Q/Q (vs 0.1% prior). This is a touch above the ECB's 0.0% projection presented in September. Across countries, Spain is expected to remain the sequential growth outperformer (consensus 0.6% Q/Q vs 0.8% prior). Germany meanwhile is at risk of slipping into a technical recession, with current consensus at 0.0% Q/Q (vs -0.3% prior). Finally, Eurozone flash October HICP is due on Friday. Consensus looks for a one tenth deceleration in headline and core metrics to 2.1% and 2.3% Y/Y respectively. Focus over the next few months will be if downside inflation risks start to be realised beyond what is already embedded in the ECB's baseline projections.

WEDNESDAY - Australia Q3 CPI

Australian Q3 CPI prints on 29 October and will be a key input into the RBA's 4 November decision. Volatile monthly CPI data for July and August are signalling that the trimmed mean may have stabilised around 2.7% rather than progressing towards the 2.5% target band mid-point. RBA Governor Bullock noted that the pick up in some components and especially core services was a concern given its stickiness in some other countries.

WEDNESDAY - BOC Decision

The Bank of Canada is set to cut its policy rate by 25bp for a second consecutive meeting on October 29. The new 2.25% rate would represent the bottom of the BOC's "neutral" estimate range (2.25%-3.25%), reflecting an environment in which economic slack has built amid the fallout from the US-Canada trade conflict but with core inflation continuing to run at the high end of the BOC's target band. Overall the data remains volatile and mixed, with stronger-than-expected CPI and labour market data for September not enough to derail another cut amid increasingly muted private sector inflation expectations and a limited rebound in economic activity after Q2's sharp contraction. Gov Macklem is unlikely to deliver any clear signals about future decisions at the press conference, keeping market pricing split between one further 25bp cut in the cycle vs no further easing.

WEDNESDAY - FOMC Decision

The Federal Reserve is overwhelmingly expected to cut the funds rate by 25bp for a 2nd consecutive meeting on October 29, bringing the target range to 3.75-4.00%. This will again be framed as a risk management cut, with the limited data available since the September meeting not disconfirming that the shift in the balance of risks had tilted toward labor market downside. With limited new developments and official data to opine on, Chair Powell’s press conference will be eyed for affirmation that a December cut remains on track, as signaled by the most recent Dot Plot. He’s unlikely to give much away, but it would be surprise given the lack of data and relevant developments if he suggested that a further 2025 cut was in any greater doubt than it was 6 weeks earlier. Instead, we think focus in terms of action at this meeting will be on the balance sheet, with the Fed likely to announce an end to quantitative tightening amid diminishing reserve levels and nascent evidence of funding market pressures.

THURSDAY - Trump/Xi Meeting In South Korea

Trump will travel to Gyeongju, South Korea, on Wednesday to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Trump will deliver a keynote address at a luncheon for CEOs and join a US-APEC leaders working dinner. The main event for markets will be a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the first in-person meeting between the pair since 2019 will take place on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and USTR Jamieson Greer will hold preliminary talks with their Chinese counterparts in Malaysia over the weekend to ensure trade talks are on track and the Trump-Xi meeting goes ahead despite a major escalation of trade tensions in recent weeks. The meeting comes ahead of the November 10 deadline for extending the US-China trade truce. If an extension isn’t agreed, tariffs will be triggered, imposing an effective trade embargo on the world’s two biggest economies. Trump said this week he expects a major deal to cover the majority of friction points in the bilateral trade relationship, including soybean purchases, Fentanyl, and export controls on rare earths. The prevailing view among analysts is that a truce extension is likely, but a ‘grand bargain’ will remain elusive.

THURSDAY - BOJ Decision

The firm sell side consensus is for no change at the BoJ meeting next week. Market pricing also gives very little chance to rate shift. Some BOJ board members are calling for a hike, as they feel the inflation objective has been met, although this doesn't appear to be a core viewpoint of the board at this stage. Inflation trends are in favor of a wait and see approach from the BOJ. Services inflation eased to 1.4%y/y in Sep (from 1.5%). New PM Takaichi is also compiling a fiscal package, with rhetoric from some of her new ministers also supportive of the BoJ's current accommodative stance. If the central bank leaves rates on hold, focus will shift to the outlook, with Dec or Jan eyed as a hike window, although market pricing doesn't have a full 25bps move priced in until th eMarch meeting next year.

Emerging Markets

SUNDAY - Argentina Mid-term Elections (Click for MNI Preview)

Argentina holds Congressional elections on Sunday, 26 October in a race that has garnered more international media and financial market attention than would usually be the case for a partial midterm election. Half the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate are up for election, with the outcome set to have a significant impact on President Javier Milei’s ability to pass his policy programme through the legislature. In recent few weeks, Milei has found his vetoes against legislation to increase public spending on universities and paediatric care overturned in Congress. This comes after a near two-year period since coming to office in which Milei has struggled to implement his full economic reform agenda due to the lack of a majority in Congress. The election comes a short time after Milei met with US President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. This, in turn, followed the White House’s approval of a USD20bln bailout for Argentina to bolster the economy of a political ally amid significant financial market turbulence that has seen the Argentinian Treasury pump over USD1bln into propping up the peso in recent weeks. During the meeting, Trump said that the funding (which could double to USD40bln according to NBC News) would be conditional on the outcome of the election.

Whether the remaining two years of Milei’s term are judged a success or failure, and the prospect of him remaining in the Casa Rosada post-2027, could well come down to the outcome of the 26 October Congressional election.

TUESDAY - BCCh Decision

The BCCh is expected to hold the reference rate steady at 4.75%, as the board continues to closely monitor the evolution of core inflation and its fundamentals. While September inflation data confirmed an expected uptick, analysts have pointed out that the core reading was marginally below the central bank’s more hawkish estimates. This should keep a December rate cut firmly on the table, a view echoed by both BCCh economist and trader surveys.

FRIDAY - BanRep Decision

BanRep is expected to keep the overnight lending rate unchanged at 9.25%. The minutes to last month’s meeting suggested that the bar to renewed rate cuts has moved even higher, amid concerns over persistent inflation, uncertainty over the disinflation trajectory and the increase in the fiscal deficit. Furthermore, board member Villamizar has said that a rate hike might need to be considered. While this is not the base case yet, analysts have pushed their expectations for the next cut further out - to April 2026.

Note: US Government shutdown ongoing, meaning any Government-compiled US statistics will not be released.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
27/10/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	M3
27/10/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	IFO Business Climate Index
27/10/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
27/10/2025	0915/1015		EU	ECB Elderson Keynote on Banking Governance
27/10/2025	1100/1100	**	GB	CBI Distributive Trades
27/10/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Durable Goods New Orders
27/10/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Durable Goods New Orders
27/10/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
27/10/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
27/10/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
27/10/2025	1700/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
27/10/2025	1700/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
28/10/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
28/10/2025	0700/0800	*	DE	GFK Consumer Climate
28/10/2025	0900/1000	**	IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
28/10/2025	0900/1000	**	IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
28/10/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	ECB Bank Lending Survey
28/10/2025	1000/1000	*	GB	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
28/10/2025	-		US	FOMC Meeting
28/10/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
28/10/2025	1300/0900	**	US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
28/10/2025	1300/0900	**	US	FHFA Home Price Index
28/10/2025	1300/0900	**	US	FHFA Home Price Index
28/10/2025	1400/1000	***	US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
28/10/2025	1400/1000	**	US	Richmond Fed Survey
28/10/2025	1400/1000	**	US	housing vacancies
28/10/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
28/10/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
28/10/2025	1700/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
29/10/2025	-		JP	Bank of Japan Meeting
29/10/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
29/10/2025	0030/1130	***	AU	CPI Inflation Monthly
29/10/2025	0030/1130	***	AU	CPI inflation
29/10/2025	0700/0800		SE	Flash Quarterly GDP Indicator
29/10/2025	0700/1500	**	CN	MNI China Money Market Index (MMI)
29/10/2025	0800/0900	***	ES	GDP (p)
29/10/2025	0930/0930	**	GB	BOE Lending to Individuals
29/10/2025	0930/0930	**	GB	BOE M4
29/10/2025	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
29/10/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
29/10/2025	1100/1200	**	IT	PPI
29/10/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
29/10/2025	1345/0945	***	CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
29/10/2025	1400/1000	**	US	NAR Pending Home Sales
29/10/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
29/10/2025	1430/1030		CA	BOC press conference
29/10/2025	1430/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
29/10/2025	1530/1130	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
29/10/2025	1800/1400	***	US	FOMC Statement
30/10/2025	-		EU	European Central Bank Meeting
30/10/2025	0030/1130	**	AU	Trade price indexes
30/10/2025	0300/1200	***	JP	BOJ Policy Rate Announcement
30/10/2025	0630/0730	***	FR	GDP (p)
30/10/2025	0630/0730	**	FR	Consumer Spending
30/10/2025	0700/0800	**	SE	Retail Sales
30/10/2025	0800/0900	***	ES	HICP (p)
30/10/2025	0800/0900	**	CH	KOF Economic Barometer
30/10/2025	0800/0900	**	SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
30/10/2025	0855/0955	**	DE	Unemployment
30/10/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	GDP (p)
30/10/2025	0900/1000	***	IT	GDP (p)
30/10/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	Bavaria CPI
30/10/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
30/10/2025	0900/1000	***	DE	Baden Wuerttemberg CPI
30/10/2025	1000/1100	*	EU	Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
30/10/2025	1000/1100	**	EU	EZ Unemployment
30/10/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ GDP 1st (Prelim Flash)
30/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
30/10/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
30/10/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	Payroll employment
30/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	GDP / PCE Quarterly
30/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	GDP / PCE Quarterly
30/10/2025	1300/1400	***	DE	Germany CPI (p)
30/10/2025	1300/1400	***	DE	Germany CPI (p)
30/10/2025	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Deposit Rate
30/10/2025	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
30/10/2025	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
30/10/2025	1345/1445		EU	ECB Press Conference
30/10/2025	1355/0955		US	Fed's Michelle Bowman
30/10/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
30/10/2025	1515/1615		EU	ECB Lagarde Presents Rate Decision on ECB Podcast
31/10/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	Tokyo CPI
31/10/2025	2330/0830	*	JP	Labor Force Survey
31/10/2025	2350/0850	*	JP	Retail Sales (p)
31/10/2025	2350/0850	**	JP	Industrial Production
31/10/2025	0030/1130	*	AU	Producer price index q/q
31/10/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/10/2025	0130/0930	**	CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
31/10/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Import/Export Prices
31/10/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Retail Sales
31/10/2025	0745/0845	***	FR	HICP (p)
31/10/2025	0745/0845	**	FR	PPI
31/10/2025	0930/0930		GB	Blue Book / Pink Book
31/10/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Flash
31/10/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Flash
31/10/2025	1000/1100	***	IT	Italy Flash Inflation
31/10/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Personal Income and Consumption
31/10/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Employment Cost Index
31/10/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/10/2025	1330/0930		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
31/10/2025	1342/0942	***	US	MNI Chicago PMI
31/10/2025	1500/1100		CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
31/10/2025	1600/1200		US	Fed's Beth Hammack, Raphael Bostic