MNI Global Week Ahead: Heavy Central Bank Week Awaits
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
TUESDAY - BOJ Decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50% at its June 16–17 meeting. Markets see little risk of a rate hike at this meeting, with a projected policy rate of 0.60% by December. That leaves focus on whether the board opts to slow the pace of its JGB purchase reductions. The MNI Policy team noted that some board members see no need to slow the current pace of tapering – currently set at JPY400 billion per quarter – arguing the recent rise in longer-dated yields reflects improved market functioning, not something that should delay normalisation. However, views remain fluid. Members are closely watching financial market developments and will weigh “pros and cons” outlined by monetary policy officials during the pre-meeting blackout period. While no consensus has formed, a slower pace – halving the quarterly taper to JPY200 billion – is being seriously considered. The BoJ is likely to outline its bond-buying schedule through Q1 2027 to provide more transparency while maintaining flexibility.
WEDNESDAY - UK May CPI
Ahead of the publication of the MPC policy decision on Thursday, May CPI data will be published on Wednesday (although the MPC will have advance access to the data on Monday morning). The ONS has noted that there was an error in the VED (road tax) component in the April dataset which boosted headline CPI by around 0.13ppt and services CPI by around 0.25ppt - but as CPI cannot be revised the old data will not officially be corrected. Headline CPI was also boosted in April by Easter effects: airfare contributed 0.11ppt to the increase, package holidays 0.07ppt and sea transport 0.04ppt. If these were reversed in May (along with the VED) headline CPI would drop by almost 0.4ppt and services CPI by almost 0.8ppt. The early consensus looks for a smaller falls to 3.3%Y/Y for headline (from 3.53%) and for services to 4.8%Y/Y (from 5.42%). The BOE forecasts are 3.36% and 4.73% respectively. We see risks skewed more to the downside.
WEDNESDAY - Riksbank Decision
The Riksbank is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.00% on Wednesday, following through on slight dovish tilt incorporated into the May policy statement (which noted that “it is somewhat more probable that inflation will be lower than that it will be higher than in the March forecast. This could suggest a slight easing of monetary policy going forward”). Data since May has veered in a dovish direction, with soft activity signals coming alongside an easing of inflationary pressures. As such, a cut towards the lower end of the Riksbank’s 1.50-3.00% neutral range appears prudent to offer further support to Sweden’s rate-sensitive economy. This is a quarterly meeting which includes an updated MPR and rate path projection, the latter of which should see a downward revision.
WEDNESDAY - Fed Decision
The FOMC will hold rates for a 4th consecutive meeting in June, and continue to convey a patient stance on future rate cut decisions amid elevated policy-related uncertainty. The new quarterly projections will still signal the resumption of rate cuts later this year, but likely only one 25bp reduction instead of the two cuts envisaged at the March meeting. While risks to both the Fed’s inflation and employment mandates remain elevated, with the new 2025 forecasts looking increasingly reflective of stagflation, the Committee should still signal rate cuts through end-2026 of a similar magnitude to its previous set of projections. But in the meantime, the bar to action is very high, with the majority of the FOMC not fully convinced that tariff-related inflation will be transitory, while also not yet seeing a compelling enough deterioration in hard data to warrant easing. The Statement and Chair Powell press conference should again reflect the Committee’s “wait and see” approach, with limited changes to May’s language.
THURSDAY - SNB Decision
Markets assign roughly a 75% probability to the SNB cutting rates by 25bps to 0.00% on Thursday, with a smaller — but not insignificant — chance of a larger move into negative territory. Since the March meeting, inflation has continued to ease, printing below the SNB’s target range for the first time in four years. However, the SNB has maintained a focus on medium-term CPI dynamics, which will be reassessed in the updated inflation forecast due at the meeting. On the currency side, the Swiss Franc has retraced some of its early-April strength but remains firmer compared to March levels. That has prompted questions around potential SNB FX intervention again, which could be one focus of the post-decision press conference, especially given the US has set Switzerland back on their "currency manipulation" watchlist again recently.
THURSDAY - Norges Bank Decision
Norges Bank is firmly expected to hold rates at 4.50% on Thursday, at a quarterly meeting which includes an updated MPR and rate path projection. We expect guidance that the policy rate “will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025” to remain unchanged, with a risk of firmer guidance towards a September cut. Developments since the March meeting should warrant a modest downward revision to the rate path, but we still expect the June iteration to be consistent with two cuts this year. Over the last three months, spot inflation pressures have been lower than expected, energy prices have softened (assuming the latest spike on Israel/Iran tensions has come too late to impact the June forecasts) and the NOK has strengthened. These factors should pull down the June rate path. However, mainland economic signals have portrayed an economy that is coping relatively well with rates at 4.50%, meaning the board won't feel pressured to commit to a faster pace of easing.
THURSDAY - BOE Decision
Even if we see a small downside surprise to CPI ahead of the MPC meeting, we still expect the BOE to note that inflation has largely progressed as expected. However, the labour market does look softer and GDP growth appears marginally softer too. Overall we don't think there has been enough of a development to trigger a change in the BOE's guidance and with some of the members supporting the 25bp cut in May seeing the decision as balanced, we and the market would be surprised to see anything other than Bank Rate on hold. The most interesting aspect will therefore be the vote split. It would be a surprise if either Dhingra or Taylor (who both favoured 50bp cuts in May) did not continue to vote for a cut (albeit with uncertainty over the magnitude). The main question is if there is anyone else to join them. We think that either Deputy Governor Breeden or former hawk Greene would be the most likely candidates - but anything other than a 7-2 vote would be a surprise to the market. Note that as this is a non-quarterly meeting there will be no MPR or press conference accompanying the decision.
Emerging Markets
TUESDAY - BCCh Decision (Chile)
The BCCh is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting on Tuesday, amid a still uncertain external backdrop and elevated inflation pressures. The central bank maintains a dovish bias, however, and focus will be on the forward guidance for any indication that it will resume its easing cycle in the third quarter, consistent with market expectations.
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
Bank Indonesia's decision is announced on June 18 and it is likely to keep rates at 5.5% after cutting them 25bp in May. With inflation firmly in the 1.5-3.5% corridor, the focus has been on FX stability and some rupiah appreciation allowed BI to ease last month. While USDIDR is down another 1.2% since the last meeting, we believe that it will hold and monitor global and domestic developments before moving again.
WEDNESDAY - Copom Decision (Brazil)
The Copom meeting looks like being a close call between a further 25bp Selic rate hike and no change on Wednesday. A narrow majority of analysts lean towards a rate hold at 14.75%, following better-than-anticipated CPI figures earlier this week. Even if so, BCB officials have clearly indicated that rates will remain high for longer to ensure the re-anchoring of inflation expectations and communication will likely present the decision as a pause rather than a definitive end to the cycle.
THURSDAY - BSP Decision (Philippines)
The BSP is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps next week, in line with recent softer inflation outcomes. The BSP has hinted firmly at an easier policy stance as well. Focus is likely to rest on how many more cuts we may see in 2025.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
A majority of analysts expect the CBRT to keep the one-week repo rate unchanged at 46% on Thursday. The May CPI release broadly indicated a return to inflation dynamics seen before the financial market volatility and TRY depreciation following the March 19 turmoil. While the softer data opens the door to a June cut, it is more likely that the central bank re-enters its cutting cycle in July.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 16/06/2025 | - |  JP | Bank of Japan Meeting | |
| 16/06/2025 | - |  GB | Bank of England Meeting | |
| 16/06/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** |  CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 16/06/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Retail Sales |
| 16/06/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Industrial Output |
| 16/06/2025 | 0200/1000 | ** | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 16/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** |  IT | HICP (f) |
| 16/06/2025 | 1030/1230 |  EU | ECB Cipollone At Osservatorio Banca Impresa 2030 Meeting | |
| 16/06/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** |  CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** |  US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 16/06/2025 | 1300/0900 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 16/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 16/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 16/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 16/06/2025 | - | US | FOMC Meetings with S.E.P. | |
| 17/06/2025 | 0200/1100 | *** | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 17/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Unemployment |
| 17/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 17/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 17/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 17/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 17/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 17/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 17/06/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 17/06/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 17/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 17/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 17/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note |
| 18/06/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 18/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Consumer inflation report |
| 18/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** | SE | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
| 18/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | EU | ECB Elderson At SRB Legal Conference 2025 | |
| 18/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 18/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18/06/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 18/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 18/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 18/06/2025 | 1500/1700 | EU | ECB Lane At Macroprudential Conference | |
| 18/06/2025 | 1515/1115 | CA | BOC Governor speaks in Newfoundland. | |
| 18/06/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 18/06/2025 | 1730/1330 | CA | Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations | |
| 18/06/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Statement |
| 18/06/2025 | 1800/2000 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori | |
| 18/06/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 19/06/2025 | 2245/1045 | *** |  NZ | GDP |
| 19/06/2025 | - |  NO | NorgesBank Meeting | |
| 19/06/2025 | - |  CH | Swiss National Bank Meeting | |
| 19/06/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 19/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** | CH | SNB PolicyRate |
| 19/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** | CH | SNB Interest Rate Decision |
| 19/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | EU | ECB's Lagarde On Economic and Financial Integration | |
| 19/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 19/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Construction Production |
| 19/06/2025 | 0945/1145 | EU | ECB de Guindos On Eurozone Economic Outlook | |
| 19/06/2025 | 1030/1230 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote Speech At Economic Integration Conference | |
| 19/06/2025 | 1100/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 19/06/2025 | 1100/0700 | *** |  TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 19/06/2025 | - | EU | ECB Cipollone At Eurogroup Meeting | |
| 19/06/2025 | 1600/1800 | EU | ECB Lagarde At Financi'Elles event | |
| 20/06/2025 | 2301/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 20/06/2025 | 2330/0830 | *** | JP | CPI |
| 20/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 20/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 20/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | PPI |
| 20/06/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 20/06/2025 | - | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 20/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 20/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 20/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 20/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 20/06/2025 | 1400/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 20/06/2025 | 1530/1630 | GB | BOE to announce Q3 APF sales schedule | |
| 20/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 20/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
