MNI Global Week Ahead - Flash PMIs, NATO Summit and Powell
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
DURING THE WEEK - EU H2 Issuance Plan
The EU is likely to outline its H2 issuance plans in the W/C 23 June, with funding for the ReARM programme likely to begin (note EU issuance is all consolidated rather than issued with a UoP as it was previously). We also look for the EU to confirm when non-competitive second rounds for its auctions are due to begin.
MONDAY - Eurozone June Flash PMIs
Eurozone regional data flow has been light since the ECB's June decision, with movements in EUR short-end rates dictated by the inflationary risks of the latest Israel/Iran escalation. That places considerable focus on the June flash PMI round as a barometer of the region's activity against a backdrop of still-elevated trade policy uncertainty. The Eurozone-wide composite PMI is expected to just about remain in expansionary territory at 50.5 (vs 50.2 prior). The index has hovered between 50.0 and 51.0 through this year, consistent with positive, but sluggish, growth rates. Analysts expect the differential between services and manufacturing to narrow further in June, with services seen at 50.0 (vs 49.7 prior) and manufacturing at 49.7 (vs 49.4 prior). Country-level data from France and Germany will be released before the Eurozone-wide release, with incremental improvements expected in France and slightly larger rises seen in Germany. There may be downside risks to the French manufacturing PMI (cons 49.9 vs 49.9 prior) after the INSEE survey came in soft.
TUESDAY - German Q3 Issuance Plan and 2025 Budget
A German 2025 draft budget was already agreed on internally by the past traffic light coalition 11 months ago - but a consequential court judgement ultimately led to not only its own, but also the fall of that mentioned coalition. Following snap elections, the new government saw the need for increased fiscal space, planning a E500bln infrastructure fund, increasing military spending as well as E46bln tax breaks through 2029, and the setup of these will take centre stage at Tuesday's 09:45 BST press conference. A core concern for investors will be how quick and substantial the German net issuance ramp-up will be, as also some key figures for 2026 are set to be announced - but even apart from that, implications will be plentiful, and will impact German growth and inflation as a function of the announced policies.
Relatedly, Germany is also due to announce its Q3 issuance plan on Tuesday 24 June. It is likely that there will be an increase in issuance relative to the annual 2025 plans with the re-introduction of a 7-year Bund (with a Nov-32 maturity most likely). There is also scope to increase the issuance sizes particularly across 10-year or less maturities. There had originally been some talk of a 50-year Bund – but we think that the timing for that may not be particularly attractive at present and so we think that may be more a story for 2026 or when demand at the ultra-long end appears more resilient.
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - NATO Summit
On Tuesday/Wednesday, the leaders of the 32 NATO members will convene for a summit at The Hague in the Netherlands. The summit is seen as the key opportunity for the alliance to agree on the 5% of GDP defence spending target demanded by Trump. Secretary General Rutte has proposed that defence spending be increased to 5% by 2032, with core defence spending increased to 3.5% of GDP plus an additional 1.5% of GDP for defence-related spending. Unanimous support is required for a joint statement to be published backing the proposals, but resistance from the likes of Spain, France and Italy will complicate matters. Spain has publicly opposed a target as high as 5%, while Italy has pushed to extend the deadline of the spending increases to 2035. A deadline extension may be seen as a realistic compromise, but there are still no guarantees of unanimous support. An additional risk factor, as always, comes from President Trump. Leaders have already reduced the summit to a single 2.5 hour working g session to ensure the President does not leave early. A joint statement on the Russia/Ukraine conflict is also expected to be agreed on at the summit.
TUESDAY - Fed Chair Powell Testimony
Fed Chair Powell is set to deliver congressional testimonies on Tuesday (House) and Wednesday (Senate). The first appearance should as usual carry more weight. We expect a similar tone from Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, where he was far from emphatic about the prospect of rate cuts, all but taking a cut at the July meeting off the table. “As long as the economy is solid, as long as we're seeing the kind of labor market that we have and reasonably decent growth, and inflation moving down, we feel like the right thing to do is to be where we are, where our policy stance is, and learn more. And in particular we feel like we're going to learn a great deal more over the summer on tariffs." With repeated attacks from President Trump including calls for rates to be materially lower, expect a partisan approach to questions. Fedspeak can also be important this week considering the dot plot revealed a particularly divided FOMC with seven pencilling in zero cuts this year through to two looking for three cuts. Post-FOMC commentary has already been kickstarted by a dovish Governor Waller stating the Fed could cut rates next month.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US Q1 GDP Third Read; May PCE
US data is headlined by Thursday’s Q1 GDP revisions and Friday’s PCE report for May although there are plenty of other releases that will be watched with interest throughout the week. Q1 GDP data will be “stale”, especially being a third release, but it will nevertheless help the Fed assess whether its previous view on the economy is playing out. Powell at the May FOMC press conference said he expected consumption and inventories to have increased more strongly than first reported in the flash release. Last month’s second release showed that only partly played out, with inventories revised even higher but consumption revised down from 1.8% to 1.2%. Nevertheless, Powell at Wednesday’s June FOMC press conference still described the downward revised 2.5% for PDFP as “solid”. The May PCE report should be more impactful for clues on latest consumer momentum amidst strong income growth. Retail sales saw the largest monthly drop since March 2023 although the closely-watched control group was stronger than expected. As for inflation metrics, core PCE is seen around 0.15% M/M in May judging by unrounded estimates after the usual CPI, PPI and import price inputs, following 0.12% M/M in April.
As for the other releases to watch, Monday’s preliminary June PMIs will give timely updates on wider activity after Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys remained in contractionary territory. We also expect greater than usual focus on housing data (existing home sales Mon, new home sales Wed) after what have been some troubling releases for both construction and sentiment. Tuesday then sees the Conference Board consumer survey for an alternative look at the improvement since the de-escalation in trade policy before Wednesday’s advance trade data for the latest post tariff front-running update.
FRIDAY - Japan June Tokyo CPI; May Labour Market and Retail Sales Data
Headline, core and core-core Tokyo CPI measures are all seen at 3.3% Y/Y in June. Such a read would keep the core-core measure at its joint highest since January 2024. At the June BOJ press conference, Governor Ueda re-iterated that underlying inflation was likely to converge to target levels in the second half of the projection horizon. Additionally, he continued signalling that rates will be raised in accordance with improvements in the economy and prices if they move in line with projections. Labour market data and retail sales are also due on Friday, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 2.5% and retail sales seen softening to 2.5% Y/Y (vs 3.5% prior).
FRIDAY - Spain and France Flash June Inflation
The Eurozone June flash HICP round kicks off with Spain and France on Friday. Focus across the region will be on services, with the May disinflation heavily impacted by volatile Easter-timing sensitive categories such as airfares. Early analyst consensus sees Spanish headline HICP ticking up to 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.0% prior), while French HICP is seen remaining very soft at 0.6% Y/Y. The ECB projected Q2 headline inflation at 2.0% in its latest projections. June flash headline HICP would need to print at 1.9% Y/Y for this to be realised. For core, a 2.5% Y/Y print is required to meet the ECB's 2.5% Q2 projection, while 3.6% Y/Y is required for services (ECB Q2 projection: 3.6%). While ECB officials have for now been happy to look through sub-2% headline inflation readings, a meaningful undershoot for core in Q2 and Q3 could see markets reprice the chance of a 1.50% terminal rate. ECB-dated OIS currently appear comfortably in pricing one more 25bp cut this cycle, for a 1.75% terminal.
Emerging Markets
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep its base rate on hold at 6.50% again this month, sticking to its ‘cautious and patient’ approach to monetary policy. Comments from central bank officials continue to indicate that it is unlikely that any changes will be made to the Bank’s hawkish guidance either, with officials committed to achieving and maintaining price stability amid an uncertain geopolitical backdrop.
WEDNESDAY - BOT Decision (Thailand)
The Bank of Thailand cut rates 25bp to 1.75% on April 30 to bring the total easing this cycle to 75bp. There is considerable uncertainty heading into the June 25 meeting which may drive BoT to cut rates again as risks around the economic outlook have deteriorated or it may want to maintain room to ease at a more opportune time. The prospect of a 36% US tariff remains, conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices sharply higher and domestically, the ruling coalition is fracturing, risking the passage of the budget.
WEDNESDAY - CNB Decision (Czech Republic)
The Czech National Bank is unanimously expected to keep the repo rate on hold at 3.50% following a 25bp rate cut in May. Various officials have indicated that sticky inflation requires restrictive monetary conditions, though the MPC Board remains divided over whether last month’s rate cut was the last of the cycle, or if instead there will be room for further easing at upcoming meetings.
THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)
Despite both headline and core inflation edging higher in May, the Banxico committee look likely to continue its easing cycle, with another 50bp cut of the overnight rate to 8.00%. This would be in line with most recent communication that stated the board would consider adjusting the monetary policy stance “in similar magnitudes” ahead. A strong peso and ongoing concerns around the growth trajectory are supportive of further easing. However, the probability of a dissenting vote/view has risen following recent headlines from Deputy Governor Heath, who suggested that it may be prudent to pause the easing cycle to assess whether the projected inflation slowdown actually materialises in Q3.
FRIDAY - BanRep Decision (Colombia)
After a surprise unanimous 25bp rate cut in April, the BanRep Board is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% next week, given mounting fiscal concerns. This follows the government’s decision to suspend its fiscal rule last week amid an increase in its budget deficit targets, which have added uncertainty to the outlook and raised the risk of a credit rating downgrade. That said, marginally softer CPI data and further peso gains since the last meeting keep the door open to further easing, and the vote is likely to be split, with some members calling for additional easing.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 20/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** |  US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 20/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 22/06/2025 | 1715/1315 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 23/06/2025 | 2300/0900 | *** |  AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 23/06/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 23/06/2025 | 0700/0300 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 23/06/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/06/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 23/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 23/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** |  GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 23/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 23/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 23/06/2025 | - | GB | BOE Bailey At Insurance Chairs Dinner | |
| 23/06/2025 | 1300/1500 | EU | ECB Lagarde At ECON Hearing | |
| 23/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 23/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 23/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 23/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 23/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 23/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 23/06/2025 | 1720/1320 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 23/06/2025 | 1830/1430 | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 24/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24/06/2025 | 0800/0900 | GB | BOE Bailey At Gold Standard Conference | |
| 24/06/2025 | 0845/1045 | DE | 2025 Budget Press Conference | |
| 24/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 24/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 24/06/2025 | 0930/1030 | GB | BOE Green On CB Balance Sheet Mgmt | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24/06/2025 | 1115/1315 | EU | ECB de Guindos At XLII APIE seminar | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  CA | CPI |
| 24/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | US | Current Account Balance |
| 24/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 24/06/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 24/06/2025 | 1300/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 24/06/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 24/06/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 24/06/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 24/06/2025 | 1300/1500 | EU | ECB Lagarde Accepts De Sanctis Award "Europa" | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1315/0915 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1335/1435 | GB | BOE Ramsden At Barclays-CEPR MonPol Forum | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1355/1555 | EU | ECB Lane Keynote At Barclays-CEPR MonPol Forum | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 24/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 24/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Fed Chair Jay Powell | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1400/1500 | GB | BOE Bailey At Lords Econ Affairs Committee | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1540/1640 | GB | BOE Pill At Gold Standard Conference | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1550/1650 | GB | BOE Breeden At UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1630/1230 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 24/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 24/06/2025 | 1805/1405 | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
| 24/06/2025 | 2000/1600 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 25/06/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 24/06/2025 | 0015/2015 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 25/06/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 25/06/2025 | 0600/1400 | ** |  CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
| 25/06/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 25/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | GDP (f) |
| 25/06/2025 | 0845/0945 | GB | BOE Lombardelli At BOE MonPol Conference | |
| 25/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 25/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 25/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | GB | BOE Pill On Panel At BOE MonPol Conference | |
| 25/06/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 25/06/2025 | 1230/1330 | GB | BOE Lombardelli Chairs Riksbank's Breman Speech At BOE MonPol Conf | |
| 25/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 25/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 25/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Fed Chair Jay Powell | |
| 25/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 25/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 25/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 25/06/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | Federal Reserve Board Meeting | |
| 26/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 26/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 26/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | GB | BOE Breeden On UK Competetiveness Panel | |
| 26/06/2025 | 0945/1145 | EU | ECB De Guindos At Deutsch Bank Forum 2025 | |
| 26/06/2025 | 0945/1045 | GB | BOE Greene Chairs Panel On MonPol Communication | |
| 26/06/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26/06/2025 | 1100/1300 | EU | ECB Schnabel At 'Wirtschaftsrat der CDU' Finanzmarktklausur | |
| 26/06/2025 | 1100/1200 | GB | BOE Bailey Keynote Speech At BCC Conference | |
| 26/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 26/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 26/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 26/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 26/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP |
| 26/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 26/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 26/06/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 26/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 26/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 26/06/2025 | 1430/1530 | GB | BOE Lombardelli Chairs Panel On Communicating Uncertainty | |
| 26/06/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 26/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 26/06/2025 | 1715/1315 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 26/06/2025 | 1830/2030 | EU | ECB Lagarde Opening Speech at Münchner Opernfestspiele | |
| 26/06/2025 | 1900/1500 | *** |  MX | Mexico Interest Rate |
| 27/06/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 27/06/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 27/06/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 27/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | PPI |
| 27/06/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) |
| 27/06/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 27/06/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 27/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) |
| 27/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 27/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 27/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 27/06/2025 | 1000/1200 | ** | IT | PPI |
| 27/06/2025 | 1130/0730 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 27/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 27/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 27/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 27/06/2025 | 1315/0915 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 27/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 27/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 27/06/2025 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 27/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 27/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 28/06/2025 | 1530/1730 | EU | ECB Schnabel On Panel At Petersberger Sommerdialog 2025 |
