MNI Global Week Ahead - EZ Inflation and US Payrolls Headline
Developed Markets
MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY - ECB Sintra Forum
The ECB's annual forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, kicks off on Monday. The theme of this year's discussions is "Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses". Scheduled speeches and panel discussions will centre on this theme, with central bankers across developed and emerging markets making appearances (including Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BOE Governor Bailey and BOJ Governor Ueda). There may be more market interest in ad hoc commentary and interviews provided by policymakers on the sidelines of the event, with focus on any policy signals ahead of the summer break. For the ECB, expectations for meaningful guidance changes are not that high. The June decision featured firm guidance that policy is in a "good place", and data/developments since then have not swayed market pricing for a July hold. A lingering uncertainty remains the outcome of EU-US trade negotiations, with latest reporting suggesting officials believe a deal can be reached before the July 9 deadline.
TUESDAY - Japan Q2 Tankan Survey
BOJ officials will closely watch the upcoming June Tankan survey, due July 1, for signs of resilience in non-manufacturers' sentiment and upward revisions to major firms’ capital investment plans, which would support its baseline view for a gradual rate-hike path, MNI understands. The survey, which typically shows a steady capex upward revision in June, will offer a key read on how U.S. trade policy is impacting corporate sentiment. A notable weakening in non-manufacturing sentiment or lower capex plans could cast doubt on the Bank’s outlook and delay further tightening. Officials expect manufacturer sentiment to worsen due to tariffs, but believe non-manufacturers remain relatively insulated – though there is concern that weaker manufacturing profits could eventually hit household income and consumer spending. Bloomberg consensus currently has the manufacturing index at 10 (vs 12 prior), with the non-manufacturing index at 34 (vs 35 prior).
TUESDAY - Eurozone June Flash Inflation (MNI preview)
The June Eurozone inflation round is split across two weeks, with the Eurozone-wide release due on Tuesday. Already-released French and Spanish data weren't material market movers (France was one tenth above consensus at 0.8% Y/Y; Spain was in line at 2.2% Y/Y), with immediate focus turning to the German and Italian readings on Monday. Focus across the region will be on services, with the May 0.8pp disinflation on the Y/Y rate heavily impacted by volatile Easter-timing sensitive categories such as airfares. The ECB projected Q2 headline inflation at 2.0% in its latest projections. June flash headline HICP would need to print at 1.9% Y/Y for this to be realised – consensus stands marginally higher, at 2.0%. For core, a 2.5% Y/Y print is required to meet the ECB's 2.5% Q2 projection (consensus is for a lower 2.3% reading here), while 3.6% Y/Y would be required for services (ECB Q2 projection: 3.6%). While ECB officials have for now been happy to look through sub-2% headline inflation readings, a meaningful undershoot for core in Q2 and Q3 could see markets reprice the chance of a 1.50% terminal rate. ECB-dated OIS currently appear comfortably in pricing one more 25bp cut this cycle, for a 1.75% terminal.
TUESDAY / THURSDAY - US June ISM Indices
Outside of Nonfarm Payrolls (see below), the ISM Manufacturing and Services reports for June will be the key US data of the week, and both are seen improving versus May. While the Manufacturing reading (released Tuesday) is seen edging higher to 48.8 vs 48.5 in May, this is still in contractionary territory, consistent with mixed regional Fed manufacturing survey composite indices for the month (New York’s deteriorating, Philadelphia’s steady, and Richmond and Kansas City improving modestly) as trade policy uncertainty lingers. Meanwhile most regional Fed non-manufacturing surveys released so far for June have shown sequential improvement, including New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond, with Kansas City’s pulling back from an outlying multi-month high. Overall regional activity and the PMI Services reading (above 53 for 2 consecutive months) align with consensus expectations for the ISM Services index (released Thursday) to rise to 50.7 in June from 49.9 in May (which was its first sub-50 reading in 11 months).
THURSDAY - US June Employment Report
Market closures for Independence Day on Friday mean an already heavy docket on Thursday will be made even busier with June nonfarm payrolls added to the mix. The early consensus is for a 110k payroll gain, down from 139k prior. With material changes in immigration flows under the Trump administration, breakeven rates of payrolls growth are likely much lower than last year. It should keep focus on the unemployment rate as a broad barometer of labor market slack even if it’s from the noisier household survey. May saw the unemployment rate edge higher from 4.19% to 4.244% for a new recent high, only just avoiding being rounded up to 4.3% - current consensus is for the rounded figure to reach 4.3% in June. The median FOMC participant lifted their 4Q25 forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% in the June SEP, and now sees it staying there in 4Q26 vs the 4.3% from the March projection round, so it would take a fairly significant surprise to the weak side to reignite any chance of a July Fed rate cut.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
A hawkish shift in NBP communication since Karol Nawrocki won the presidential elections last month have cemented expectations that the Polish central bank will leave its main policy rate unchanged at 5.25%. While Governor Adam Glapinski refused to offer any explicit forward guidance at the previous meeting, the tone of his comments on the macroeconomic backdrop was evidently more cautious, with regulated household energy prices and loose fiscal policy flagged as key risks for the period ahead.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 28/06/2025 | 1530/1730 |  EU | ECB Schnabel On Panel At Petersberger Sommerdialog 2025 | |
| 30/06/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** |  JP | Industrial Production |
| 30/06/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/06/2025 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Retail Sales |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | GDP Second Estimate |
| 30/06/2025 | 0600/0700 | * | GB | Quarterly current account balance |
| 30/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 30/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
| 30/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 30/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 30/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 30/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 30/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 30/06/2025 | 0830/1030 | EU | ECB de Guindos At IADG Conference | |
| 30/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** |  IT | HICP (p) |
| 30/06/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
| 30/06/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** |  US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 30/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic - MNI Connect | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 30/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 30/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 30/06/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Acreage - NASS |
| 30/06/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | USDA GrainStock - NASS |
| 30/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 30/06/2025 | 1900/2100 | EU | ECB Lagarde Opening Remarks At Sintra Forum | |
| 01/07/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 01/07/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** | JP | Tankan |
| 01/07/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/07/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/07/2025 | 0630/0830 | ** | CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/07/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2025 | 0740/0940 | EU | ECB de Guindos Chairs Sintra Panel | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 01/07/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 01/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/07/2025 | 0840/1040 | EU | ECB Elderson Chairs Sintra Panel | |
| 01/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
| 01/07/2025 | 1040/1240 | EU | ECB Schnabel Chairs Sintra Panel | |
| 01/07/2025 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/07/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 01/07/2025 | 1330/1430 | GB | BOE Bailey On Panel At Sintra Conference | |
| 01/07/2025 | 1330/0930 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 01/07/2025 | 1330/1530 | EU | ECB Lagarde On Sintra Panel | |
| 01/07/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 01/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 01/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 02/07/2025 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Building Approvals |
| 02/07/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
| 02/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | EU | ECB de Guindos Chairs Sintra Panel | |
| 02/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
| 02/07/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 02/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB Cipollone Chairs Sintra Panel | |
| 02/07/2025 | 1030/1230 | EU | ECB Lane Chairs Sintra Panel | |
| 02/07/2025 | 1030/1130 | GB | BOE Taylor On Panel At Sintra Conference | |
| 02/07/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 02/07/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 02/07/2025 | 1415/1615 | EU | ECB Lagarde Gives Closing Sintra Remarks | |
| 02/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 03/07/2025 | 2300/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 03/07/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 03/07/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 03/07/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 03/07/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 03/07/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
| 03/07/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
| 03/07/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** | CH | CPI |
| 03/07/2025 | 0700/0300 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/07/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | GB | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 03/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | GB | BOE Credit Conditions Survey | |
| 03/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 03/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 03/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 03/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 03/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 03/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 03/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 03/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 03/07/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 03/07/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 03/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 03/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 03/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 03/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 03/07/2025 | 1500/1100 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 03/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 03/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 04/07/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
| 04/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04/07/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production |
| 04/07/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production |
| 04/07/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
| 04/07/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 04/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | EU | ECB Elderson Speech At IMF OEDNE/World Bank Meeting | |
| 04/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | PPI |
| 04/07/2025 | 1500/1600 | GB | BOE Taylor Speech On Natural Interest Rate |
