MNI Global Week Ahead - EZ Inflation and US NFPs In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
THROUGH THE WEEK - BOE Speakers
We think that markets are underpricing the probability of a Q4 cut and we would likely need the same five MPC members who voted for a cut in November to vote for a follow up in November / December. Bailey, Breeden and Ramsden are the three who didn't vote for a sequential cut in September and we will hear from two them in the upcoming week - both discussing monetary policy. Dave Ramsden will appear as a panellist on the policy panel at the ECB / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025 Conference” on Monday. Alongside him on the panel will be ECB Chief Economist Lane and the Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (2026 voting member). We place Ramsden as the most dovish member on the MPC who did not vote for a cut in September – and will be looking for confirmation of this next week. Deputy Governor Breeden rarely speaks on monetary policy but her speech scheduled for Tuesday at Cardiff University is provisionally entitled “The Monetary Policy Outlook”. This will certainly be a key speech. She sounded slightly more dovish than Governor Bailey following her testimony ahead of the TSC on 3 June but hasn’t really spoken on monetary policy since. Her tone is likely to be pivotal for markets, particularly if she strikes a dovish tone given current market pricing.
MONDAY / TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - Eurozone September Flash Inflation Round
The Eurozone September flash inflation reading is due on Wednesday, with country-level data coming from Spain on Monday and France, Germany and Italy on Tuesday. Early consensus sees the Eurozone-wide headline reading increasing three tenths to 2.3% Y/Y on an energy base effect, while core is expected to remain steady at 2.3% Y/Y. Markets have been paring back expectations of another ECB rate cut steadily since the September decision, where President Lagarde expressed confidence in the medium-term inflation outlook and noted that growth risks are now “more balanced”. However, with just under 10bps of easing priced through July 2026, markets may still be sensitive to a downside core surprise. Some more dovish ECB officials continue to stress that inflation risks are tilted to the downside. Headline HICP inflation is expected to increase across the four major Eurozone economies, most notably in France and Italy.
TUESDAY - RBA Decision
The RBA decision is announced Tuesday 30 September and we believe that it will maintain its cautious approach to policy and keep rates unchanged at 3.6%. It continues to focus on quarterly CPI as the monthly series is not yet complete. July & August trimmed mean printed at 2.7/2.6% respectively, suggesting that Q3 was similar to Q2’s 2.7% (i.e. stabilising disinflation). Thus, as in July the RBA is likely to wait for the quarterly CPI data on 29 October before changing rates. Governor Bullock's statement to a parliamentary committee in September that "domestic data have been broadly in line with our expectations or if anything slightly stronger" is also consistent with a cautious approach to monetary easing and the Board's data dependence.
TUESDAY - BanRep Decision (Colombia)
BanRep is widely expected to remain on hold at 9.25% for a third consecutive meeting on Tuesday, following recent stronger-than-expected economic activity data and a rebound in headline inflation. Speaking earlier this month, BanRep Governor Villar argued that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive to ensure that inflation slows to target, as he noted that inflation has not slowed as quickly as expected and reiterated his concern about the country’s elevated fiscal deficit. Subsequent survey data have revealed that analysts don’t expect the easing cycle to resume until Q1 2026.
WEDNESDAY - Japan Q3 Tankan Survey
Tankan: The main focus will be on the Tankan survey out on Wednesday. The market expects a resilient to slightly better backdrop for large manufacturing firms (+14 expected versus +13 in Q2), while capex is seen at +11.0% (prior was 11.5%). The is a ley BoJ watch point in terms of gauging fall out from higher US tariff levels. Data this week saw the manufacturing PMI slip further into contraction, which if sustained would leave downside risks for IP growth. Tokyo CPI was weaker than forecast and real wage gains in July were revised back into negative territory.
WEDNESDAY - RBI Decision (India)
The Reserve Bank of India meets next week on the 1st of October for its second last meeting of the year. As the trade war loomed large in early 2025, the RBI cut rates for the first time in over two years and has reduced the central bank rate by 100bps over several meetings. Interest rate cycles in emerging markets typically are contingent on the US rate cycle and with the Federal Reserve recently cutting rates, the door is ajar for the RBI to cut rates further. Inflation continues to undershoot in India and with fiscal policy changes coming into effect via GST relief, to meet the RBI's dual mandate of growth and inflation the market expects a further cut of 25bps.
FRIDAY - US September Employment Report
The September Employment report scheduled for Friday is expected to show a continuation of the sluggish growth in U.S. payrolls seen over the prior 4 months, with early consensus estimates eyeing 50k overall gains (22k prior) made up entirely of private employment at 50k (38k prior). While the headline job change number has been de-emphasized by various Federal Reserve officials due to the uncertainty over what constitutes the "breakeven" pace of job growth, the FOMC is clearly concerned about incipient labor market weakness and another soft reading (private payrolls have averaged 39k growth over May/June/July/October, overall payrolls just 27k) would keep the Committee on track to cut rates again at the end of October. Just as closely-eyed, the unemployment rate is seen steady at an unrounded 4.3%, having broken out to a 46-month high 4.32% in August, while average hourly earnings (0.3% M/M) and weekly hours (34.2) are seen unchanged as well. It should be said, we’re not even guaranteed to get an employment report in the coming week: there is a high probability of a federal government shutdown beginning on October 1 that could prevent the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing the data.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 29/09/2025 | 0650/0850 |  EU | ECB Cipollone Keynote At Baltic Digital Euro Conference | |
| 29/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (p) |
| 29/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 29/09/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 29/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 29/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB Schnabel On Current Aspects of Monetary Policy | |
| 29/09/2025 | 1130/0730 |  US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 29/09/2025 | 1200/1400 | EU | ECB Lane In Policy Panel At Inflation Conference | |
| 29/09/2025 | 1200/0800 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 29/09/2025 | 1200/1300 | GB | BOE Ramsden On ECB Inflation Panel | |
| 29/09/2025 | 1330/0930 | US | NY Fed's Roberto Perli | |
| 29/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 29/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 29/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 29/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 29/09/2025 | 1730/1330 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 29/09/2025 | 1730/1330 | US | Ex-St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | |
| 29/09/2025 | 1730/1330 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 29/09/2025 | 2200/1800 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 30/09/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30/09/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** |  JP | Industrial Production |
| 30/09/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 30/09/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/09/2025 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/09/2025 | 0130/1130 | * |  AU | Building Approvals |
| 30/09/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/09/2025 | 0430/1430 | *** | AU | RBA Rate Decision |
| 30/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Retail Sales |
| 30/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 30/09/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 30/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | * | GB | Quarterly current account balance |
| 30/09/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | GDP Second Estimate |
| 30/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (p) |
| 30/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 30/09/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 30/09/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 30/09/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 30/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | PPI |
| 30/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 30/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 30/09/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 30/09/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30/09/2025 | 1000/0600 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 30/09/2025 | 1100/1300 | EU | ECB Cipollone In Panel At Sibos | |
| 30/09/2025 | 1150/1250 | GB | BOE Lombardelli Panel On MonPol, Bank of Finland | |
| 30/09/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 30/09/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 30/09/2025 | 1250/1450 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote at MonPol Conference, Bank of Finland | |
| 30/09/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 30/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 30/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 30/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 30/09/2025 | 1300/1500 | EU | ECB Elderson In Panel On Climate Action | |
| 30/09/2025 | 1300/0900 | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
| 30/09/2025 | 1325/1425 | GB | BOE Mann Fireside Chat At FT | |
| 30/09/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 30/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 30/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 30/09/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 30/09/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 30/09/2025 | 1530/1630 | GB | BOE Breeden Speech At Cardiff University | |
| 30/09/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 30/09/2025 | 1600/1200 | ** | US | USDA GrainStock - NASS |
| 01/10/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 30/09/2025 | 2310/1910 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 01/10/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** | JP | Tankan |
| 01/10/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/10/2025 | 0630/0830 | ** | CH | Retail Sales |
| 01/10/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | EU | ECB Elderson Keynote at ECB Climate Conference | |
| 01/10/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/10/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/10/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/10/2025 | 0755/0955 | EU | ECB de Guindos Interview & Panel at Politico Summit | |
| 01/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Flash |
| 01/10/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 01/10/2025 | 0955/1055 | GB | BOE Mann In Bloomberg Interview | |
| 01/10/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 01/10/2025 | - | *** | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 01/10/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 01/10/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 01/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 01/10/2025 | 1730/1330 |  CA | BOC Summary of Deliberations | |
| 01/10/2025 | 1805/1405 | CA | BOC Sr Deputy Rogers speaks at competition panel | |
| 02/10/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 02/10/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** | CH | CPI |
| 02/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | GB | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 02/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Unemployment |
| 02/10/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 02/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 02/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 02/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 02/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 02/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 02/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 02/10/2025 | 1700/1900 | EU | ECB de Guindos Fireside Chat at ESADE Madrid | |
| 02/10/2025 | 1725/1325 | CA | BOC Deputy Mendes speaks at Western University | |
| 03/10/2025 | 2300/0900 | * | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 03/10/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 03/10/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 03/10/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 03/10/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 03/10/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production |
| 03/10/2025 | 0700/0300 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/10/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 03/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 03/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 03/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ PPI |
| 03/10/2025 | 0940/1140 | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech At Knot Farewell Symposium | |
| 03/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 03/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 03/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 03/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 03/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 03/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Employment Report |
| 03/10/2025 | 1320/1420 | GB | BOE Bailey Keynote At Knot Farewell Symposium | |
| 03/10/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 03/10/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 03/10/2025 | 1350/1550 | EU | ECB Schnabel In Panel At Knot Farewell Symposium | |
| 03/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
