MNI Global Week Ahead - ECB, UK Data, China Fiscal In Focus
Developed Markets
Monday / Thursday - Fed Waller Speech and US September Retail Sales
While Monday is a US holiday for cash bond markets, Fed Governor Waller's speech at 1500ET will garner attention for any updated views on the rate cut outlook. His last public appearance, which came immediately after the September FOMC meeting, was perceived quite dovishly for his seeming openness to another 50bp cut in November were the labor market to worsen or inflation to come in softer than expected. Since then, a strong September nonfarm payrolls report and an upside surprise in September CPI have seen markets price out a 50bp cut, and even put a pause into play - any commentary from Waller about potential a November "skip" will be closely eyed.
The Advance Retail Sales report for September (Thursday) is the highlight of the coming week's US data calendar, and will provide a key update on consumer activity at the end of Q3. Consensus expectations are for a pickup in overall sales growth (to 0.3% M/M, vs 0.1% in Aug). Countervailing factors include a potential pickup in the single largest retail category - auto sales - after a soft August, while gasoline stations are likely to see another pullback on the back of lower pump prices (all figures are nominal, not price-adjusted). The key "control group" will be most closely eyed as an input to the quarterly GDP calculations, and is seen rising 0.4% (vs 0.3% in Aug), with a strong figure potentially weighing against the case for a Fed cut in November.
Monday - MAS Decision (Singapore)
The MAS is expected to remain on hold at Monday's policy meeting. The local inflation backdrop has seen further improvement in headline momentum, which is now down to 2.2%y/y, the softest pace since the first part of 2021. Still, the core measure has proven to be stickier.
TUESDAY - Canada September CPI
The Canadian CPI report for September is the last major release before the BoC meets on Oct 23, set to realistically determine whether it cuts by 25bp for a fourth consecutive meeting or accelerates its easing cycle with a 50bp cut. There have been some recent analyst call changes for a 50bp cut, which we thought looked aggressive coming ahead of Friday’s jobs report. That report proved stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate surprising lower at 6.5% rather than increasing a tenth to 6.7% per Bloomberg consensus. There were some softer details within it though and it was also been followed by a soft pair of BoC business and consumer surveys. Nevertheless, we feel the onus is on a dovish surprise to current consensus of core CPI inflation remaining unchanged at an average 2.35% Y/Y in September for the Bank to more seriously consider a 50bp cut.
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - UK Labour Market and CPI
In another big week for UK data, inflation data is due for release on Wednesday following labour market data on Tuesday. For CPI, the August print was still a bit softer than the BOE’s forecast, particularly for services prices (headline 2.22%Y/Y vs BOE 2.37%Y/Y; services 5.56%Y/Y vs BOE 5.84%Y/Y). Air fares, cultural services and furniture prices all provided upside to last month’s print that could pose some downside risks while catering services could provide some upside risks. Hotel prices remain volatile. For the labour market data we think that most focus will remain on private regular wage growth – which remains notably above levels consistent with target inflation but is slowly moderating. The MPC will watch the data closely – particularly following Governor Bailey’s comments that the BOE could be “a bit more activist” if inflation good news continues.
WEDNESDAY - New Zealand Q3 CPI
NZ CPI is expected to slip back into the RBNZ's 1-3% target for the first time since the start of 2021. The focus is likely to rest on domestic/service price pressures, given the aggressive market pricing outlook into early 2025.
THURSDAY - ECB Decision
A 25bp cut at next Thursday’s decision is widely expected by analysts and over 90% implied by ECB-dated OIS. A cut would reflect increasing concerns around the Eurozone growth outlook (following the weak September flash PMIs) and confidence in inflation returning to target in a timely manner (following the soft September flash inflation data). As such, President Lagarde will argue it as consistent with the bank’s “data dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach”. However, focus will be on to what extent the ECB’s communication balances developments in spot growth/inflation outcomes with medium-term considerations. A reminder that the ECB has invested significant intellectual capital into analysing the interrelationship of wages, profits and productivity as a key determinant of inflation and in turn the direction of policy rates. However, this concept has largely taken a backseat in recent ECB-speak in favour of recent data outturns.
FRIDAY - Japan September CPI
Japan Y/Y CPI momentum is expected to cool across headline and core measures. Still, there will be some focus from a central bank standpoint given the September print marks the halfway point of the fiscal year.
Emerging Markets
SATURDAY / SUNDAY - China MOF Meeting and September Inflation
All eyes remain on China stimulus measures, with a key press conference taking place on Saturday from the MOF on fiscal policy. We have more meetings at the start of next week. Local equities sit comfortably off recent highs. September inflation data is also due over the weekend, with Q3 GDP on Friday. Domestic CPI pressures are expected to remain fairly steady, while PPI is forecast to fall further into deflation territory. Current consensus for Q3 GDP is 4.6% Y/Y (vs 4.7% prior).
WEDNESDAY - BoT Decision (Thailand)
The BoT is expected to keep rates on hold at 2.50% at next week's meeting, although there is a chance of a cut. CPI pressures remain benign, while domestic growth could use more support. THB has also rallied very strongly in recent months. The central bank may want to keep policy space though heading into 2025.
WEDNESDAY - BSP Decision (Philippines)
The BSP should continue its easing cycle given recent downside inflation surprises. The BSP Governor has hinted 25bps rather 50bps policy shifts are probably what will be delivered.
WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)
Much like BoT, the BI decision will be a close call. Current consensus sees rates on hold at 6.00%. What may tip the odds more towards a move is great policy space in terms of the BI outlook. We have seen USD/IDR rise recently, but we remain comfortably off recent highs, so that shouldn't be an impediment to lower policy settings.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
The CBRT is likely to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50% for the seventh consecutive meeting, though further tightening may arrive through the implementation of additional macroprudential measures. Last month, the central bank removed the bias to further tightening from its policy statement, though a stronger-than-expected inflation reading since then has increased the risk of rates staying on hold in the coming months, opposed to prior expectations that an easing cycle could commence before year-end.
THURSDAY - BCC Decision (Chile)
The BCCh is expected to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut to 5.25% next week, following weaker-than-expected September CPI inflation data. In September, the monetary policy committee said that the policy rate would be reduced to its neutral level more quickly than previously thought, and recent survey data suggest that further gradual cuts over the coming meetings are widely expected.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 12/10/2024 | - | *** |  CN | Money Supply |
| 12/10/2024 | - | *** |  CN | New Loans |
| 12/10/2024 | - | *** |  CN | Social Financing |
| 12/10/2024 | - |  CN | MOF Meeting On Fiscal Policy | |
| 13/10/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CPI |
| 13/10/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | Producer Price Index |
| 14/10/2024 | 0630/0730 |  GB | BoE Dhingra At Bank of India Conferece | |
| 14/10/2024 | - | *** |  CN | Trade |
| 14/10/2024 | - |  GB | International Investment Summit | |
| 14/10/2024 | 1300/0900 |  US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 14/10/2024 | 1900/1500 |  US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 14/10/2024 | 2100/1700 |  US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 15/10/2024 | 0430/1330 | ** |  JP | Industrial Production |
| 15/10/2024 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Inflation Report |
| 15/10/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | Labour Market Survey |
| 15/10/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 15/10/2024 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 15/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 15/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 15/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 15/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** |  EU | Industrial Production |
| 15/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 15/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  CA | CPI |
| 15/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 15/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/10/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** |  US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 15/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | * |  CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 15/10/2024 | 1500/1100 | ** |  US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 15/10/2024 | 1530/1130 |  US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 15/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 15/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 15/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 15/10/2024 | 1700/1300 |  US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 16/10/2024 | 2145/1045 | *** |  NZ | CPI inflation quarterly |
| 15/10/2024 | 2300/1900 |  US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 16/10/2024 | 2350/0850 | * |  JP | Machinery orders |
| 16/10/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | Consumer inflation report |
| 16/10/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | Producer Prices |
| 16/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 16/10/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 16/10/2024 | 1215/0815 | ** |  CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 16/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 16/10/2024 | 1840/2040 |  EU | ECB's Lagarde Speech at Banka Slovenije Dinner | |
| 17/10/2024 | - |  EU | European Central Bank Meeting | |
| 17/10/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** |  JP | Trade |
| 17/10/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 17/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** |  EU | HICP (f) |
| 17/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | * |  EU | Trade Balance |
| 17/10/2024 | 1100/0700 | *** |  TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 17/10/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** |  EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 17/10/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** |  EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 17/10/2024 | 1215/1415 | *** |  EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 17/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Jobless Claims |
| 17/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Retail Sales |
| 17/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 17/10/2024 | 1245/1445 |  EU | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference | |
| 17/10/2024 | 1315/0915 | *** |  US | Industrial Production |
| 17/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | * |  US | Business Inventories |
| 17/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** |  US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 17/10/2024 | 1415/1615 |  EU | ECB Podcast: Lagarde presents MonPol Decision | |
| 17/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** |  US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 17/10/2024 | 1500/1100 | ** |  US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 17/10/2024 | 2000/1600 | ** |  US | TICS |
| 17/10/2024 | 2000/2100 |  GB | BOE's Woods Speech at Mansion House | |
| 18/10/2024 | 2330/0830 | *** |  JP | CPI |
| 18/10/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** |  CN | GDP |
| 18/10/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** |  CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 18/10/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** |  CN | Retail Sales |
| 18/10/2024 | 0200/1000 | *** |  CN | Industrial Output |
| 18/10/2024 | 0200/1000 | ** |  CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 18/10/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | Unemployment |
| 18/10/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | Retail Sales |
| 18/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | EZ Current Account |
| 18/10/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** |  EU | Construction Production |
| 18/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** |  US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 18/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Housing Starts |
| 18/10/2024 | 1330/0930 |  US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 18/10/2024 | 1400/1000 |  US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 18/10/2024 | 1610/1210 |  US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 18/10/2024 | 1630/1230 |  US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic |
