MNI Global Week Ahead - ECB Decision In Focus
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
MONDAY - New Zealand Q2 CPI
Partial NZ price data on food and energy prices points to firmer upside Q2 CPI pressures. This data prints next Monday. The figures may be above the RBNZ forecast made back In May, but the recent central bank statement highlighted firmer headline price risks in the near term. The market consensus is for a 0.6%q/q headline rise, which would take the y/y rate to 2.8%. Non-tradables inflation is forecast at 0.7%q/q, after a Q1 1.1% rise.
MONDAY - China LPR Decision
Next week sees the decision on the China Loan Prime Rate (LPR). The LPR is important because it serves as a benchmark interest rate for lending in China, influencing both loan and mortgage rates. Changes to the LPR can impact borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially affecting economic growth and financial stability. It is unlikely next week that the Commercial Banks will submit any changes to aid in the preservation of their margins, which have been pressurised. The PBOC has not changed its policy rates since May and given second quarter GDP in line with projections, there appears no immediate need for a cut in rates.
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The NBH is expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 6.50% next week for the tenth consecutive meeting as an expected phase of higher price pressures over summer prevent any action on headline policy. That said, average wages rose at the slowest pace since COVID in May, and the particular weakness stemming from the private sector has raised the risk of an earlier rate cut. As such, the September meeting is growing in importance, and may be a live meeting for policymakers to discuss the first rate cut in a year.
TUESDAY / THURSDAY - ECB Q2 Bank Lending Survey and July Flash PMIs
The ECB's Q2 Bank Lending Survey will provide an important update on credit demand and lending standards across the region. It is a closely watched survey by ECB Governing Council members. In a recent hawkish interview, Executive Board member Schnabel referenced the Q1 survey's results as rationale for her view that policy is becoming accommodative (even if her view is considered a minority amongst the rest of the Board). It will be interesting to see if the BLS echoes the broad strokes of more regular and timely lending data. After displaying signs of plateauing through the first four months of 2025, the Eurozone credit impulse metric of 3mth flows vs 3mths a year ago fell four tenths to 1.5% of GDP in May, the lowest since December. While 200bps of ECB rate cuts have clearly contributed to a recovery in credit growth since Q1 2024, this support now appears to be being countered by persistently elevated trade policy uncertainty.
Thursday's flash PMIs will as always be a closely watched data point, but will likely come too late to meaningfully influence outcomes at the ECB decision later that day. Current consensus pencils in another incremental improvement in the Eurozone composite PMI to 50.8, from 50.6 in June. Both services and manufacturing components are expected to rise, but the latter is still seen below the neutral 50 handle (cons 49.8 vs 49.5 prior). The composite PMI is expected to rise in both Germany and France, though the latter is still seen in contractionary territory.
THURSDAY - South Korea Q2 GDP
South Korea GDP Advanced for Q2 is out next week and the likelihood of any material change is muted. The first quarter result of 0% YoY and -0.2% QoQ predicated the additional supplementary budget by the new government. Full year forecast for GDP is at 1.00%, with most of the change expected to come in the back half of the year. The Q2 result therefore will remain somewhat stagnant but markets are likely to look through it into Q3. Tariffs remain the key threat to the growth outlook as uncertainty over the final trade policy with South Korea clouds investment decisions. There is some positives though with the corporate governance reforms that are ongoing giving support to the equity market and over time could feed through to consumption.
THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)
Adjustments to the CBRT’s policy statement in June indicated that policy easing will resume from July onward – which is the prevailing view shared among sell-side analysts. The median surveyed estimate looks for a 250bp cut to the one-week repo rate to 43.5%, although there are some calls for an even bolder move. Softer-than-expected headline CPI in June (attributed to food inflation) is supportive of renewed easing, however, a robust services print should prompt the CBRT to maintain a cautious outlook for the cutting cycle ahead.
THURSDAY - ECB Decision
The ECB is expected to hold its policy rate at 2.00% on Thursday, after President Lagarde emphasised that policy was in a "good place" at the June decision. Major deviations from existing policy statement guidance (signalling a “data dependent and meeting by meeting approach”) are also unlikely. Economic data since June has generally confirmed the ECB's outlook, but tariff uncertainty has once again ratcheted higher after President Trump's latest threat of a 30% reciprocal rate from August 1. Market pricing remains consistent with one more 25bp cut this cycle, which is in line with the implied rate curve embedded within the ECB's June macroeconomic projections. However, the Governing Council is appearing increasingly divided as to whether more easing is justified at this stage, and even if another cut is warranted, whether it should be delivered in September or later in the year. As such, focus will be President Lagarde’s characterisation of risks at the press conference, which will likely shape the market reaction.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 21/07/2025 | 2245/1045 | *** |  NZ | CPI inflation quarterly |
| 21/07/2025 | 0900/1100 |  EU | EZ Quarterly GDP Third Estimate | |
| 21/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | Eurozone Q1 Deficit/Debt Data | |
| 21/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 21/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | CA | BOC Business Outlook Survey |
| 21/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 21/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 22/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** |  GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 22/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 22/07/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 22/07/2025 | 0915/1015 | GB | BOE Bailey At TSC On FSR | |
| 22/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 22/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 22/07/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 22/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 22/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 22/07/2025 | 1700/1900 | EU | ECB Lagarde At EIB Informal Dinner | |
| 23/07/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 23/07/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 23/07/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 23/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 23/07/2025 | 1400/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 23/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 23/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 24/07/2025 | - | EU | European Central Bank Meeting | |
| 24/07/2025 | 2300/0900 | *** |  AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 24/07/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 24/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | * |  DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 24/07/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 24/07/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 24/07/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 24/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 24/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 24/07/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 24/07/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24/07/2025 | 1100/0700 | *** |  TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 24/07/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 24/07/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 24/07/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 24/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 24/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 24/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 24/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
| 24/07/2025 | 1245/1445 | EU | ECB Press Conference | |
| 24/07/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
| 24/07/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24/07/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 24/07/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 24/07/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 24/07/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note |
| 25/07/2025 | 2301/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25/07/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 25/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 25/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Unemployment |
| 25/07/2025 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Retail Sales |
| 25/07/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
| 25/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 25/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 25/07/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 25/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 25/07/2025 | 1300/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 25/07/2025 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
