MNI Global Week Ahead - ECB, BOC Decisions and US Payrolls

May-30 17:54By: Emil Lundh

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:

SATURDAY / TUESDAY / THURSDAY - China May PMIs

Over the weekend China will release their official PMIs for May. Official PMIs represent the state owned enterprises and their activity and market consensus is for little change with Manufacturing PMI mildly contracting at +49.5 (from +49.0 in April) and Non-Manufacturing PMI remaining in a mild expansion at +50.5 (from +50.4). The modest improvement in manufacturing are likely given what appears to be diminishing tariff risks and data suggests that shipments to the US are increasing again. The modest pick up in services can be attributed to the holidays at the beginning of the month were likely to feed into modestly higher services results. Next week sees the CAIXIN PMIs released on June 3. The CAIXIN PMIs reflect private companies. The CAIXIN PMI's have been modestly expanding and expectations that May will see a continuation of that theme with CAIXIN Manufacturing forecast to rise to +51.0, from +50.4. As with the official PMIs the CIAXIN services is anticipated to benefit from the holidays, feeding through to services. The CAIXIN PMI services is forecast to expand to +51.1, from +50.7 in April.

TUESDAY - Eurozone Flash May Inflation

Country-level data released this week suggests Eurozone headline inflation may surprise to the downside next Tuesday, with our tracking pointing to a ~1.9% Y/Y print versus the current 2.0% median consensus (and vs 2.2% prior). A 1.8% Y/Y rounded print also cannot be ruled out if the Dutch data due Tuesday morning prints significantly below the 3.9% Y/Y 4-analyst strong consensus. Although German flash HICP surprised a tenth to the upside at 2.1% Y/Y, French data (released Tuesday) was very soft at 0.6% Y/Y (vs 0.9% cons) and Spain was also weaker-than-expected at 1.9% Y/Y (vs 2.0% cons). Italy was in line with consensus at 1.9% Y/Y. It’s difficult to get a clean tracking of the core HICP print against the current 2.4% Y/Y consensus (vs 2.7% prior), as most country-level details are only provided for CPI. However, details of the German, French, Spanish and Italian releases suggest an unwind of last month’s Easter-timing related effects was clearly at play – as expected. The MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece looked at possible forecast changes to the ECB's 2026 and 2027 inflation projections.

WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)

The NBP is unanimously expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 5.25%. Governor Adam Glapinski essentially pre-announced an on-hold decision in the June meeting, with the Board expected to wait for the July forecasts before re-evaluating the macro picture. Benign inflation data could allow for a more dovish NBP at the margins this month.

WEDNESDAY - BOC Decision (Canada)

The Bank of Canada is likely to keep the overnight rate on hold at 2.75% on June 4 for a second consecutive meeting, with firmer-than-expected inflation and activity data since the April decision suggesting insufficient urgency to cut rates amid significant US/Canada tariff-related economic uncertainty. The median estimate in the Bloomberg survey as of May 30 shows a 25bp reduction is narrowly expected, but implied market cut pricing is down to ~20% after inflation and GDP data, and some cut-minded analysts are changing their minds after a stronger-than-expected GDP reading out Friday. Even before the GDP data, BOC Governor Macklem said that "I think the direction of travel [since the April meeting] has been more toward" what he called the bank's "not-so-bad scenario", suggesting that a decision to ease further can wait until a later meeting when there may be more clarity on the outlook.

THURSDAY - ECB Decision (Eurozone)

The ECB will very likely deliver another 25bp cut on Thursday, bringing the deposit rate to 2.00% - the middle of its heavily caveated 1.75-2.25% neutral range. Markets have essentially fully priced such an outcome since the April decision, with focus now whether another sequential cut will be delivered in July or if the Governing Council can initiate its first pause in almost a year. The April decision was viewed as dovish, with the ECB emphasising heightened uncertainty and downside growth risks stemming from US tariff developments. While there has been some progress on the tariff front since then (e.g. between the US and China), trade policy uncertainty remains acute, and the weak May flash PMIs have kept growth concerns in focus. Meanwhile, already released country-level May flash inflation prints and the soft Q1 negotiated wages reading underscore Governing Council confidence in the inflation outlook. The June policy statement will likely re-iterate the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach, with dovish leanings coming from the commentary around the updated macroeconomic projections. The MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece looked at possible forecast changes to the ECB's 2026 and 2027 inflation projections. President Lagarde's press conference tone may provide some clues as to the appetite for a potential pause in July. ECB speakers have generally lent dovish since April, with only familiar hawks Schnabel and Holzmann expressing hesitance around the need for future rate cuts.

FRIDAY - RBI Decision (India)

At time of writing there is a heavy consensus for a further cut to 5.75%. At the last meeting in April, the RBI cut rates and signalled that more cuts were ahead, as it seeks to boost the sluggish economy in the face of fresh US tariffs. Since that meeting, economic data has shown resilience with PMI's rising very strongly, exports surprising to the upside, industrial production resilient all against a backdrop of moderating inflation. During the last month the RBI has repeatedly provided strong liquidity support to markets, a sign that the transmission mechanism for monetary policy may not be as effective as required. Market consensus is very strongly for a cut with all economists surveyed on BBG advocating a cut and -23bps priced in by the bond market. We align our thinking with consensus and expect a cut and for now and are focused on the RBI liquidity injections in the near term.

FRIDAY - US Employment Report

Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to moderate in May after a surprisingly robust 177k in April, with Bloomberg consensus currently around the 130k mark. The industry breakdown was one of general resilience in April but will again be watched after an upward drift in continuing jobless claims in recent weeks has left a marked step higher in the May payrolls reference period compared to recent months. One industry we will continue to watch more closely than usual is transportation & warehousing, which received a boost by tariff front-running in April. The unemployment rate meanwhile is seen holding at 4.2% for what would be a third consecutive month. It has drifted slowly higher in recent months, from 4.14% in February to 4.15% in March and 4.19% in April. A faster climb towards the 4.4% the median FOMC participant pencilled in for 4Q25 back in the March SEP would be more notable. However, FOMC officials will be wary of a repeat of the head fake from the spike to 4.22% in July last year (at the time 4.25%), seemingly heavily prompting a 50bp start to the easing cycle in September, but which has largely marked a top aside from the 4.23% in November.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
30/05/2025	2330/1930		US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
31/05/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/05/2025	0130/0930	**	CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
02/06/2025	2300/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/06/2025	0000/2000		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
02/06/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
02/06/2025	0630/0830	**	CH	Retail Sales
02/06/2025	0700/0900	***	CH	GDP
02/06/2025	0715/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/06/2025	0745/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/06/2025	0750/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/06/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/06/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/06/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	BOE Lending to Individuals
02/06/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	BOE M4
02/06/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
02/06/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final)
02/06/2025	1400/1000	***	US	ISM Manufacturing Index
02/06/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Construction Spending
02/06/2025	1400/1000	*	US	Construction Spending
02/06/2025	1400/1000		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
02/06/2025	1400/1500		GB	BOE's Mann fireside chat at Fed's IF 75th anniversary conference
02/06/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
02/06/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
02/06/2025	1630/1830		EU	ECB Lagarde Video Message at Women In Finance Event
02/06/2025	1645/1245		US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
02/06/2025	1700/1300		US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
02/06/2025	1700/1800		GB	BOE Greene Fireside Chat
03/06/2025	0130/1130		AU	Business Indicators
03/06/2025	0130/1130		AU	Balance of Payments: Current Account
03/06/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI
03/06/2025	0630/0830	***	CH	CPI
03/06/2025	0700/0300	*	TR	Turkey CPI
03/06/2025	0900/1100	***	EU	HICP (p)
03/06/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	Unemployment
03/06/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
03/06/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
03/06/2025	0915/1015		GB	BOE Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Mann At TSC
03/06/2025	-	***	US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
03/06/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
03/06/2025	1400/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
03/06/2025	1400/1000	***	US	JOLTS jobs opening level
03/06/2025	1400/1000	***	US	JOLTS quits Rate
03/06/2025	1400/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
03/06/2025	1645/1245		US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
03/06/2025	1700/1300		US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
03/06/2025	1930/1530		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
04/06/2025	2300/0900	*	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI
04/06/2025	2300/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI
04/06/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI
04/06/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI
04/06/2025	0130/1130	***	AU	Quarterly GDP
04/06/2025	0700/0900	**	ES	Industrial Production
04/06/2025	0715/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/06/2025	0715/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/06/2025	0745/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/06/2025	0745/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/06/2025	0750/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/06/2025	0750/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/06/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/06/2025	0755/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/06/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/06/2025	0800/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
04/06/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
04/06/2025	0830/0930	***	GB	S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI
04/06/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
04/06/2025	0900/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
04/06/2025	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
04/06/2025	1215/0815	***	US	ADP Employment Report
04/06/2025	1230/0830		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
04/06/2025	1345/0945	***	CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
04/06/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (final)
04/06/2025	1345/0945	***	US	S&P Global US Final Composite PMI
04/06/2025	1400/1000	***	US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
04/06/2025	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
04/06/2025	1430/1030		CA	BOC press conference
04/06/2025	1800/1400		US	Fed Beige Book
05/06/2025	-		EU	European Central Bank Meeting
05/06/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	average wages (p)
05/06/2025	0130/1130	**	AU	Trade Balance
05/06/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Services PMI
05/06/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Composite PMI
05/06/2025	0545/0745	**	CH	Unemployment
05/06/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Manufacturing Orders
05/06/2025	0600/0800	***	SE	Flash Inflation Report
05/06/2025	0730/0930	**	EU	S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
05/06/2025	0745/0845		GB	BOE's Greene Opening Remarks at Econdat Conference 2025
05/06/2025	0800/1000	*	IT	Retail Sales
05/06/2025	0830/0930		GB	Decision Maker Panel data
05/06/2025	0830/0930	**	GB	S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
05/06/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	PPI
05/06/2025	1215/1415	***	EU	ECB Deposit Rate
05/06/2025	1215/1415	***	EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
05/06/2025	1215/1415	***	EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
05/06/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
05/06/2025	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
05/06/2025	1230/0830	**	CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
05/06/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
05/06/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Non-Farm Productivity (f)
05/06/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
05/06/2025	1245/1445		EU	ECB Press Conference
05/06/2025	1400/1000	*	CA	Ivey PMI
05/06/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
05/06/2025	1600/1200		US	Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
05/06/2025	1620/1220		CA	BOC Deputy Kozicki speech
06/06/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	Household spending
06/06/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
06/06/2025	0600/0800	**	DE	Industrial Production
06/06/2025	0645/0845	*	FR	Industrial Production
06/06/2025	0645/0845	*	FR	Foreign Trade
06/06/2025	0830/1030		EU	ECB Lagarde Video Message For CIBP Anniv
06/06/2025	0900/1100	**	EU	Retail Sales
06/06/2025	0900/1100	***	EU	GDP (final)
06/06/2025	0900/1100	*	EU	Employment
06/06/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
06/06/2025	1230/0830	***	US	Employment Report
06/06/2025	1230/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
06/06/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
06/06/2025	1700/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
06/06/2025	1900/1500	*	US	Consumer Credit
07/06/2025	0730/0930		EU	ECB's Lagarde Speech In Monaco
07/06/2025	0940/1140		EU	ECB's Schnabel in Dubrovnik panel discussion
07/06/2025	0940/1040		GB	BOE Greene On Central Bank Decoupling Panel