MNI Global Week Ahead - Central Banks Navigating War Impact

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week. Of course, developments in the Middle East will continue to take centre stage ahead of the events noted below. See our Political Risk team's publication on what factors could push the conflict towards a "short" war (weeks, a month), and those that direct it towards a longer conflagration (many months).

Developed Markets

MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - Canada CPI and BOC Decision

The Bank of Canada is unanimously expected to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% on Wednesday. February's weak labour market report pared expectations for of 2026 rate hikes, which had ramped up this month alongside rising energy prices amid the conflict in the Middle East. Monday's release of February CPI data could reduce hiking impetus further if it shows further disinflationary progress as expected (Y/Y CPI to 1.9% from 2.3% in January, core trim/median average to 2.35% after 2.45%). However the BOC is likely to look through the latest data as somewhat stale given Mideast developments, so attention will be paid to the Bank's communications on higher energy prices' expected net impact on the Canadian economy.

TUESDAY - RBA Decision

Market pricing and sell-side economic consensus is for a hike next week. Comments from RBA Deputy Governor Hauser were deemed as hawkish this week, highlighting the inflation risks from the oil price spike and limited spare capacity in the economy. The problem the RBA faces is the already elevated inflation backdrop, with leaves very little wiggle room in terms of upside surprises. Still, the long the Iran conflict continues the greater the downside risks to global growth and local growth, so the RBA decision is likely to be finely balanced tightening.

WEDNESDAY - FOMC Decision

The FOMC will hold the Federal Funds rate at 3.50-3.75% for a second consecutive meeting in March, in what increasingly looks like a prolonged pause before the next move. The updated Dot Plot is likely to show the same median expectation for the rate path, including one 25bp cut by end-2026, which combined with a largely unchanged statement will effectively maintain the Committee's easing bias. Incoming data for the year so far won't allay skepticism that inflation is returning sustainably to 2%, and while the labor market hasn't deteriorated to the point once feared, job gains remain soft at best. The threat posed to both dual mandate variables from the conflict in the Middle East gives policymakers even more reason to wait and see how things develop.

THURSDAY - New Zealand Q4 GDP

NZ Q4 GDP is quite dated now, but will provide the RBNZ with a sense of where the economy was at towards the end of 2025, and an update on where spare capacity may rest. The market forecast is for a slowing in q/q growth versus Q3, but a pick up in y/y momentum. Most survey indicators are indicating higher y/y growth.

THURSDAY - BOJ Decision

The BOJ is unanimously expected to hold the policy rate at 0.75% on Thursday, with the terms of trade implications from the Iran war adding uncertainty to the outlook and the normalisation timeline. OIS markets assign just a ~7% implied probability of a rate hike at Thursday's decision, though our Policy Team's latest sources piece noted the board is increasingly vigilant about second-round effects from yen weakness and crude oil prices, particularly the risk of rising inflation expectations. This vigilance has increased the chances of a surprise move in March, though officials may still want to wait for more information to justify a rate increase. That keeps focus on the April 27-28 meeting, for which markets currently assign a 60% implied probability of a rate hike.

THURSDAY - BOE Decision and UK Labour Market Data

The March MPC meeting had not long ago been largely priced for a 25bp cut but with events in the Middle East that eventuality looks unlikely with markets and analysts now expecting an on hold decision and at the time of writing markets are fully pricing in a cut later this year. The main focus will be on the Bank's updated guidance, the vote split and the individual member paragraphs. Previously the guidance had stated that "On the basis of the current evidence, Bank Rate is likely to be reduced further. Judgements around further policy easing will become a closer call." Whether this easing bias is maintained will be a key determinant of the market reaction and it is expected to be replaced by more balanced guidance but we would expect the guidance to continue at least implicitly refer to the current Bank Rate as restrictive. We pencil in a 7-2 vote split with Taylor and Dhingra voting for a 25bp cut but wouldn't be hugely surprised with either a unanimous vote or at least one of Ramsden and Breeden continuing to vote for an immediate cut. Given her activist nature we also wouldn't rule out Mann voting for a hike her (having been a swing voter before the conflict in the Middle East began) - this is not our base case however. The individual member paragraphs of any members who voted for a cut in February and who no longer support a cut as well as Bailey and Mann (assuming she supports an on hold decision) will be closely watched. Labour market data will also be released on Thursday, 5 hours ahead of the decision (although the MPC will have received this data at 8:00 on Monday morning ahead of their deliberations. Private regular wage growth was in line with the BOE's forecasts in the last release while the quantities side of the labour market has continued to soften faster than BOE staff forecasts.

THURSDAY - Riksbank Decision

The Riksbank is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.75% on Thursday. We expect the policy statement to stress considerable uncertainty around the updated March MPR forecasts and rate path projection. Although the central forecast may still indicate that a 1.75% rate is appropriate through the course of this year, we are unsure as to whether the Board will have enough confidence to repeat its guidance of steady rates for “some time to come” given the geopolitical uncertainty. This should not necessarily be interpreted as an overtly hawkish tweak, but rather a reflection of the wider range of potential outcomes relative to December. Prior to the Iran war starting, developments since the December decision had been dovish, which would have warranted a downward revision to the March MPR rate path – and therefore some implied probability of another rate cut this cycle. That said, the Riksbank’s mandate prioritises inflation as a first order objective. The policy statement is thus likely to stress heightened vigilance on inflation and inflation expectations development, and a willingness to act if required. 

THURSDAY - SNB Decision

Markets and analysts see a hold at 0.00% at Thursday’s meeting as most likely. Against the backdrop of Swiss inflation printing close to the lower bound of the SNB’s definition of price stability, focus is on any signals on the balance of risks around CHF appreciation on the one hand against higher energy prices on the other. This means key to watch in the initial press statement will be the FX communications paragraph as well as the conditional inflation forecast, while President Schlegel’s opening remarks and later Q&A may then contain more comments on the monetary policy outlook. Having said that, the bank is likely to stick to its meeting-by-meeting approach, maintaining optionality as uncertainty remains high.

THURSDAY - ECB Decision

The ECB is unanimously expected to hold its three key interest rates steady on Thursday, including the deposit rate at 2.00%. The outbreak of war between Israel, the US and Iran has driven a sharp rise in oil and gas prices, which has increased near-term inflation risks and prompted a significant hawkish repricing of front-end EUR rates. ECB-dated OIS now pricing 40bps of hikes through year-end, having previously maintained a modest easing bias ahead of the war. ECB speakers have pushed back on the need for a rate reaction as soon as next week’s meeting, but the near-term risks stemming from the war are clearly inflationary and Governing Council members are cognizant of the lessons from the 2022 Russia/Ukraine shock. MNI’s latest sources piece noted that the ECB is set to retire its current “good place” language describing the state of monetary policy in March, but while it must signal that risks to inflation have shifted to the upside due to the surge in energy prices, it will still need to make clear that any policy move is unlikely in the near term.

The March macroeconomic projections may attract less attention than usual, with the latest geopolitical developments already rendering them stale. However, ECB’s Schnabel suggested the projections may incorporate some impact of the war, suggesting the technical assumption cutoff date may be pushed back. 

EMERGING MARKETS

MNI CEEMEA Week Ahead here

MNI LatAm Week Ahead here

TUESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)

All economists on Bloomberg expect BI to keep the benchmark BI-Rate steady at 4.75%. This would mark the sixth consecutive meeting at this level. The Governor's primary focus has shifted from supporting growth to defending stability.  With the Rupiah testing the 17,000 level—a historic psychological floor—a rate cut is virtually off the table. Any hint of easing right now would likely trigger a massive capital outflow (though signs are emerging this has already begun).  For the first time in nearly three years, headline inflation has surged past the central bank’s target range (1.5%–3.5%), hitting 4.76% in February. Whilst much of this is driven by volatile food and the global oil spike, it significantly narrows the room for BI to cut . This will be a critical meeting for newly appointed Deputy Governor Thomas Djiwandono. Investors are watching for any shift in the bank's tone given the deputy governor is the President's nephew.

WEDNESDAY - Copom Decision (Brazil)

The Copom is widely expected to begin an easing cycle on Wednesday, although the market remains split over whether it will start with a 25bp or 50bp move. Despite uncertainty over the outlook for the conflict in the middle east and the associated surge in crude oil prices, BCB director Nilton David said last week that the guidance for a calibration of monetary policy this month remains valid. The decline of inflation and near-term inflation expectations indicate that the tight monetary policy stance is working. However, longer-term expectations remain unanchored and still far from target, suggesting that the Copom will proceed cautiously with rate cuts and keep monetary policy well inside restrictive territory for some time.

THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czechia)

The Czech National Bank is widely expected to keep the two-week repo rate unchanged at 3.50%, after several Bank Board members urged caution in addressing the fallout from the Iran war. While the domestic outlook has not materially changed since the previous meeting, the conflict is likely to delay any renewed discussion of a ‘fine-tuning’ rate cut for the time being.

FRIDAY - CBR Decision (Russia)

20 out of 23 analysts polled by Vedomosti expect the CBR to lower its key interest rate by 50bps to 15% at its board meeting on March 20, despite the uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Weekly inflation data look relatively benign and confirm that the January price surge due to tax hikes was temporary, whilst economists on average expect inflation to slow to around 5.2% by the end of the year.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
16/03/2026	0200/1000	***	CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
16/03/2026	0200/1000	***	CN	Retail Sales
16/03/2026	0200/1000	***	CN	Industrial Output
16/03/2026	0200/1000	**	CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
16/03/2026	1215/0815	**	CA	CMHC Housing Starts
16/03/2026	1230/0830	***	CA	CPI
16/03/2026	1230/0830	*	CA	Household debt-to-income
16/03/2026	1230/0830	**	US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
16/03/2026	1315/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
16/03/2026	1400/1000	**	US	NAHB Home Builder Index
17/03/2026	0330/1430	***	AU	RBA Rate Decision
17/03/2026	0900/1000	**	IT	Italy Final HICP
17/03/2026	0900/0500	*	CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
17/03/2026	1000/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
17/03/2026	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
17/03/2026	1215/0815	***	US	ADP Employment Report
17/03/2026	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
17/03/2026	1400/1000	**	US	NAR Pending Home Sales
18/03/2026	0001/0001	*	GB	Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
18/03/2026	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
18/03/2026	1100/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
18/03/2026	-		EU	European Central Bank Meeting
18/03/2026	1230/0830	*	CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
18/03/2026	1230/0830	***	US	PPI
18/03/2026	1345/0945	***	CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
18/03/2026	1400/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
18/03/2026	1430/1030		CA	BOC press conference
18/03/2026	1430/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
18/03/2026	1430/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
18/03/2026	1800/1400	***	US	FOMC Statement
18/03/2026	2000/1600	**	US	TICS
19/03/2026	2145/1045	***	NZ	GDP
19/03/2026	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
19/03/2026	0030/1130	***	AU	Labor Force Survey
19/03/2026	0300/1200	***	JP	BOJ Policy Rate Announcement
19/03/2026	0430/1330	**	JP	Industrial Production
19/03/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
19/03/2026	0830/0930	***	SE	Riksbank Interest Rate Decison
19/03/2026	0830/0930	***	CH	SNB Interest Rate Decision
19/03/2026	1000/1100	**	EU	EZ Construction Output
19/03/2026	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
19/03/2026	-		EU	ECB Lagarde at European Council Meeting, Brussels
19/03/2026	1200/1200		GB	BOE Agents' Summary of Business Conditions
19/03/2026	1230/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
19/03/2026	1230/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
19/03/2026	1230/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
19/03/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Deposit Rate
19/03/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Main Refi Rate
19/03/2026	1315/1415	***	EU	ECB Marginal Lending Rate
19/03/2026	1330/1430		EU	ECB Press Conference
19/03/2026	1400/1000	**	US	Wholesale Trade
19/03/2026	1400/1000	***	US	New Home Sales
19/03/2026	1400/1000		US	Fed Board meeting on capital requirements
19/03/2026	1430/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
19/03/2026	1700/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
20/03/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Public Sector Finances
20/03/2026	0700/0800	**	DE	PPI
20/03/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	EZ Current Account
20/03/2026	0900/1000		IT	Foreign Trade
20/03/2026	1000/1100	*	EU	Trade Balance
20/03/2026	1100/1100	**	GB	CBI Industrial Trends
20/03/2026	1200/1200		GB	BOE Market Participants Survey
20/03/2026	1230/0830	*	CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
20/03/2026	1230/0830	**	CA	Retail Trade