MNI Global Week Ahead - Calendar Picks Up, UK Data Headlines

Jan-16 19:34By: Emil Lundh

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:

Developed Markets

MONDAY - Canada December Inflation Data

Measures of Canadian headline and core inflation are seen remaining relatively steady in December versus November, which would reinforce Bank of Canada Governor Macklem's comment last month that "inflation pressures continue to be contained" - and keep near-term rate hike speculation subdued. MNI median consensus is for a headline CPI rate of 2.2% Y/Y (2.22% prior) in December, with ex-food/energy seen at 2.3-2.4% Y/Y (2.4% prior) and the trim/median average gauge ticking down to 2.70% (2.80% prior). A similar December Y/Y aggregate compared to November's would arguably represent some disinflationary progress given the upward base effect implied by the sales tax holiday in December 2024 (which should boost food prices in this report). A sizeable Y/Y drop in gasoline prices is also expected however, offsetting that effect. This divergence in headline dynamics will keep the focus on core aggregates which are seen continuing to diminish following November's services-led moderation yet offset by core goods' stubbornness. In November, overall core goods prices continued to tick up, rising to a 4-month high 1.9% Y/Y (1.6% prior), but services prices printed a 3-month low 2.8% (3.2% prior) as shelter inflation fell to a a 4+ year low.

TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Supreme Court

The US Supreme Court could release its ruling on the legality of the White House's IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) tariffs on its next scheduled opinion day on Tuesday (it would be issued from 10am ET onward). The court does not reveal in advance what opinions it will be releasing, but the previous two opinion days this month bore significant market anticipation. If there is an IEEPA decision in the coming week, the first order question is whether it will favor upholding the tariffs (prediction markets think only about 30% chance the justices will allow them to stand) but there are many permutations, for example striking them down completely and ordering the government to pay refunds retroactively, or allowing the existing revenues to remain but not allow future IEEPA tariffs to be collected. If there is no opinion issued, it would look increasingly likely that a decision may have to wait until late February - or even later.

In a busy Supreme Court week for market participants, on Wednesday the justices will hear oral arguments over whether President Trump is allowed to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. No decision is expected in the near future and prediction markets mark under 5% probability that Cook will be dismissed before March, but we may get a sense of how the Court regards the inviolability of the Fed's independence and ability of the US President to reshape the monetary policy-setting Fed Board.

TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - UK Labour Market and Inflation Data

Both labour market data (Tuesday) and inflation data (Wednesday) are due for release in the upcoming week. On the labour market data, private regular wage growth is expected to continue to moderate and the early Bloomberg consensus sees it at 3.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to November. This would be a deceleration from 3.87%Y/Y in the 3-months to October and on the way to the BOE's Q4 forecast of 3.51%. Quantities data is expected to show further payrolls deterioration but analysts are split between whether the unemployment rate will remain rounded at 5.1% or fall back to 5.0%. Regarding CPI, we noted that across air fares, core goods (which seem to have had a large impact from Black Friday timing) and tobacco duty, it would be a surprise if we did not see headline CPI increase from the 3.25%Y/Y rate in the December print. The early Bloomberg consensus is centred around 3.3% with some two-way risks. Either way it looks as though the print will clearly undershoot the 3.47%Y/Y BOE staff forecast - it is merely a question of by how much. Unless we saw something substantial in both prints, we don't think there will be any impact on the February MPC decision. And then the communication there will be key for next steps from the BOE.

THURSDAY - Australia December Labour Market Data

Jobs growth is forecast near +26k for Dec, reversing the -21k fall from Nov, if realised. The best of the labour market in Australia is behind us but the unemployment rate (projected at 4.4% from 4.3% in Nov) is only signalling a gradual worsening in conditions.

THURSDAY - Norges Bank Decision

Norges Bank is firmly expected to hold the deposit rate at 4.00% on Thursday. This will be an interim decision where only a concise update of economic conditions will be presented, and not an updated MPR or rate path projection. Norges Bank rarely makes material guidance changes at these decisions, and the limited developments since the December meeting warrant a continuation of the Board's cautious approach to easing. CPI-ATE inflation was a tenth higher than expected at 3.1% Y/Y in December, with underlying pressures in food and services inflation still noted. The modest strengthening in the I-44 effective exchange rate since the last meeting shouldn't have a material impact on deliberations. The March decision will attract much more attention, with Norges Bank having received more details on inflation, output, the labour market and 2026 union wage negotiations to assess the appropriate policy stance.

THURSDAY - US Q3 PCE and GDP

Thursday’s monthly personal income and outlays report headlines the weekly US data calendar with another unusual two-month combined release for October and November. The BEA has announced it will use an average for BLS Sep/Nov CPI where required (ie most of the report) for October pricing calculations. Latest PPI inputs have seen some unrounded estimates for core PCE inflation on average looking for 0.20% M/M in October (wide range of 0.13-0.28) and 0.18% M/M for November (more typical range of 0.16-0.20). Those follow an average 0.22% M/M in the three months to September, prior to any revisions, but we’re in the unusual position of already having post-CPI estimates for core PCE in December. These currently look for a strong 0.4% M/M but won’t be firmed up until the delayed December PPI report on Jan 30. On the activity side of the report, nominal retail sales data have been solid, with the control group rising 0.4% M/M in November after 0.6% M/M in October. Real goods & services consumption was strong in Q3, rising 3.5% annualized after 2.5% in Q2, with a significant tailwind from strong increases in net household worth on continued equity gains. This report should offer a useful update on consumer momentum deeper into Q4, where GDP tracking is currently at a particularly elevated 5.3% annualized per Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, admittedly buoyed by a slide in pharma imports that could see further volatility in months ahead.

Thursday will also see the “third” release for Q3 national accounts but we expect its delayed nature will see it secondary to the PCE report – early days for consensus looks for an unchanged 4.3% annualized having surpassed already solid expectations in last month’s initial release in the first update after the government re-opened.

FRIDAY - New Zealand Q4 CPI

The Q4 CPI is projected at +0.5%q/q, and 3.0%y/y for headline. This would be above the RBNZ projections made last Nov, +0.2%q/q and 2.7% y/y. Dec data showed firmer monthly trends for some components outside of the food price drop. Market forecast is likely to rest with non-tradables inflation as well (which rose 1.1%q/q in Q3). Any signs of better momentum, on the back of better growth, may impact the RBNZ outlook. The Q4 consensus for this item is +0.5%q/q.

FRIDAY- BOJ Decision

The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at the January 22–23 meeting following the December hike. The broader trajectory remains toward further tightening as Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated in recent guidance. However, with a snap election possible, we doubt Ueda will provide signals on the timing or magnitude of future hikes, given the risk of political backlash.

FRIDAY - Eurozone January Flash PMIs

The Eurozone January flash PMI round will provide a timely update on economic activity, with markets focused on the speed and magnitude of the region's anticipated cyclical recovery. The bar to an ECB rate change in either direction remains high, with a string of one-way surprises required to drive a material repricing of the rate outlook. The December PMIs were a little disappointing relative to consensus, but continued to point to expansive activity. Consensus sees the January composite reading at 51.7 (vs 51.5 prior) with services expected at 52.5 (vs 52.4 prior) and manufacturing at 49.0 (vs 48.8 prior). Across countries, one-tenth improvements are expected in both the German (51.4 cons vs 51.3 prior) and French (50.1 vs. 50.0 prior) composite PMIs.

Emerging Markets

MONDAY - China LPR and Q4 GDP

The market consensus is for Q4 y/y GDP growth to slow to 4.5% from 4.8%. Full year growth is still expected around 5.0%. This fits with broader indicators around China growth, which were softer in H2 last year compared to H1. Greater focus may rest with the Dec activity indicators and house price prints. Fresh softness for these indicators may bring forward rate easing expectations, although monetary policy shifts are still expected to be modest this year. The China loan prime rates are forecast to be steady next week.

WEDNESDAY - BI Decision (Indonesia)

Bank Indonesia is seen on hold next week. USD/IDR has pushed higher since the start of the year, while Fed easing expectations/US Tsy yields, have generally held up amidst resilient US data so far this year. This supports the on hold backdrop but we still suspect the BI will ease at some stage in 2026 as the government looks to continue to drive stronger growth outcomes.

THURSDAY - BNM Decision (Malaysia)

The BNM is also forecast to be on hold (policy rate currently at 2.75%). Policy settings look to be in somewhat of a sweet spot. Q4 growth was above expectations near 6% y/y, while inflation pressures remain benign near 1.5%. We do get the Dec CPI update next week ahead of the BNM outcome, but it is unlikely to shift central bank thinking at this stage.

THURSDAY - CBRT Decision (Turkey)

The CBRT is expected to reduce the one-week repo rate by 150bps to 36.50% after the December CPI inflation data came in slightly below expectations. The downside surprise to forecast stemmed from core goods, which should allow the central bank to continue easing at 150bp increments given its “meeting-by-meeting” approach to monetary policy.

See our full CEEMEA week ahead here

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
16/01/2026	2030/1530		US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
19/01/2026	2350/0850	*	JP	Machinery orders
19/01/2026	0200/1000	***	CN	GDP
19/01/2026	0200/1000	***	CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
19/01/2026	0200/1000	***	CN	Retail Sales
19/01/2026	0200/1000	***	CN	Industrial Output
19/01/2026	0200/1000	**	CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
19/01/2026	0430/1330	**	JP	Industrial Production
19/01/2026	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
19/01/2026	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
19/01/2026	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final
19/01/2026	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ HICP Final (2dp)
19/01/2026	-		EU	ECB Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting, Brussels
19/01/2026	1330/0830	***	CA	CPI
19/01/2026	1530/1030	**	CA	BOC Business Outlook Survey
20/01/2026	0700/0800	**	DE	PPI
20/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
20/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
20/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants
20/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment
20/01/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	EZ Current Account
20/01/2026	0945/0945		GB	BOE Bailey, Ramsden at TSC on FSR
20/01/2026	1000/1100	***	EU	EZ GDP 4th (Final)
20/01/2026	1000/1100	**	EU	EZ Construction Output
20/01/2026	1000/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
20/01/2026	-		EU	ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting, Brussels
20/01/2026	1330/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
20/01/2026	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
20/01/2026	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
20/01/2026	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
21/01/2026	0001/0001	*	GB	Brightmine pay deals for whole economy
21/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Producer Prices
21/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Consumer Inflation Report (1dp)
21/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Consumer Inflation Report (2dp)
21/01/2026	0730/0830		EU	ECB Lagarde Dialogue at World Economic Forum
21/01/2026	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
21/01/2026	1100/1100	**	GB	CBI Industrial Trends
21/01/2026	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
21/01/2026	1330/0830	*	CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
21/01/2026	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
21/01/2026	1500/1000	**	US	NAR Pending Home Sales
21/01/2026	1500/1000	*	US	Construction Spending
21/01/2026	1500/1000	*	US	Construction Spending
21/01/2026	1645/1745		EU	ECB Lagarde on EU Single Market at WEF
21/01/2026	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
22/01/2026	-		JP	Bank of Japan Meeting
22/01/2026	-		NO	NorgesBank Meeting
22/01/2026	0030/1130	***	AU	Labor Force Survey
22/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Public Sector Finances
22/01/2026	0900/1000	***	NO	Norges Bank Rate Decision
22/01/2026	1100/0600	***	TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
22/01/2026	1100/1100	**	GB	CBI Distributive Trades
22/01/2026	1230/1330		EU	ECB Publishes Account of Dec MonPol Meeting
22/01/2026	1330/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
22/01/2026	1330/0830	***	US	GDP / PCE Quarterly
22/01/2026	1330/0830	***	US	GDP / PCE Quarterly
22/01/2026	1500/1600	**	EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
22/01/2026	1500/1000	***	US	Personal Income and Consumption
22/01/2026	1530/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
22/01/2026	1700/1200	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
22/01/2026	1700/1200	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
22/01/2026	1800/1300	**	US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
23/01/2026	2145/1045	***	NZ	CPI inflation quarterly
23/01/2026	2200/0900	***	AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
23/01/2026	2330/0830	***	JP	CPI
23/01/2026	0001/0001	**	GB	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
23/01/2026	0030/0930	**	JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
23/01/2026	0300/1200	***	JP	BOJ Policy Rate Announcement
23/01/2026	0700/0800	**	SE	Unemployment
23/01/2026	0700/0700	***	GB	Retail Sales
23/01/2026	0745/0845	**	FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
23/01/2026	0815/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/01/2026	0815/0915	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/01/2026	0830/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/01/2026	0830/0930	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/01/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
23/01/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
23/01/2026	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
23/01/2026	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
23/01/2026	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Services PMI flash
23/01/2026	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
23/01/2026	0930/0930		GB	BOE Greene Speech at Resolution Foundation
23/01/2026	0930/0930		GB	BOE Publishes Forecast Evaluation Report
23/01/2026	1000/1100		EU	ECB Lagarde on Global Economic Outlook at WEF
23/01/2026	1330/0830	**	CA	Retail Trade
23/01/2026	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
23/01/2026	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash)
23/01/2026	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
23/01/2026	1500/1000	***	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
23/01/2026	1500/1000	**	US	University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation