MNI Global Week Ahead - BOE Decision and US NFPs In Focus

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:

Developed Markets

MONDAY - Eurozone Flash January Inflation

The Eurozone flash January inflation report is due at 1000GMT/1100CET on Monday (alongside the Italian numbers). Already released flash data from France, Germany and Spain suggests the 2.4% Y/Y Eurozone headline consensus (vs 2.4% prior) still stands, with a small downward surprise in France offset by an upward surprise in Spain. The German reading was in line at  2.8% Y/Y. On core, consensus of 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.7% prior) also appears to be tracking well, with the Spanish, French and German reports noting decelerations in services price growth. The ECB continued to signal confidence in the inflation outlook at its January decision, underscored by an expected moderation in wage growth through 2025. However, these expectations will still need to be realised in the hard data. Underlying momentum in core inflation – of which services is the main element– will remain a key focus for markets and the ECB. In December, 3m/3m services momentum reached a multi-year low of 2.61%. However, some analysts have questioned the ECB’s seasonal adjustment process in recent months, potentially increasing the risk of a reacceleration of momentum in the first few months of this year (as was seen in 2024). 

MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY - US Quarterly Refunding

The coming week brings the US Treasury's quarterly refunding process, split as usual into two announcements: the financing estimates for FYQ2 and FYQ3 out Monday, followed Wednesday by the expected coupon auction sizes for the upcoming 3 months (February/March/April) along with associated materials. There aren't expected to be any surprises on upcoming auction sizes, with nominal Treasuries left unchanged for the 4th consecutive quarter. But with a new presidential administration comes new leadership at the Treasury, and there will be focus on any signals of the issuance path ahead under new Secretary Scott Bessent. The main question is whether Treasury changes its current guidance that it does not "anticipate needing to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." With expectations on this mixed, the risks run two ways: a softening or removal of this guidance would confirm that higher issuance is coming later this year (consensus is for sizes to be increased in August or November) amid expected fiscal loosening, while leaving it unchanged would likely see long-end Treasuries strengthen. Other areas to watch are Treasury's discussion of TGA cash usage and extraordinary measures to stay under the recently-reimposed debt limit, and any signal that they are considering altering the mix of funding (ie more towards the longer-end of the curve and away from bills).

WEDNESDAY - New Zealand Q4 Labour Market Report

THURSDAY - BOE Decision

The MPC is expected to cut Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.50% on Thursday in a meeting that will be accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report (MPR), new forecasts and a press conference. We would be surprised to see anything other than an 8-1 vote in favour of the 25bp cut with Mann likely to continue to dissent in favour of keeping Bank Rate on hold – this would repeat the same vote split that we saw at the last MPR meeting in November when a 25bp cut was also delivered. The bar to changes in guidance is likely still fairly high here so we would expect unchanged language surrounding “gradual” approach to removing restraint and that the “Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.” For the MPR, we don’t completely rule out a change to the scenarios (given Taylor introduced the possibility of a scenario in which Bank Rate needed to be brought below neutral) but we think that a change to introduce a “case zero” would more likely come in May or June (or potentially even March).

FRIDAY - US January Labour Market Report

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for January highlights the US macro week. It's a highly anticipated report that could alter recent trends considering it will include annual benchmark revisions along with seasonal factors and an updated birth-death model. The preliminary estimate for the benchmark revision pointed to the level of payrolls being some 818k lower than currently reported for back in March 2024. There’s a broad expectation from what we can gather that the hit seen next week won’t be as large but it could still be significant. We also watch the seasonal revisions closely, as whilst they should have a zero sum impact over the calendar year, we’ve noted some particularly favorable seasonal factors in recent months that have biased seasonally adjusted jobs growth higher. With these considerations in mind, the early days of the Bloomberg consensus points to nonfarm payrolls growth of 150k after a solid three-month average of 170k. Note that the unemployment rate from the separate household survey won’t be affected by these revisions, having already seen its own seasonal factor revisions last month. A population control will complicate month-on-month changes in the levels of employment and unemployment but shouldn’t be significant for the rate, which is seen unchanged at 4.1% having surprised lower with 4.09% in December. The recent high is technically 4.23% in November having first popped to 4.22% back in July.

Two other special mentions for the week are: 1) rare remarks from FOMC Vice Chair Jefferson speaking on the economic outlook and monetary policy late on Tuesday with both text and Q&A, having last spoke on Oct 9. 2) ISM services on Wednesday after its priced paid series jumped 5.9pts to 64.4 in December for the highest since Feb 2023.

Emerging Markets

WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)

The NBP is poised to stand pat on rates at a placeholder meeting next week, ahead of the release of the next Inflation Report in March, which could potentially revive the debate on the interest-rate outlook. Most members have pushed back their easing calls at least to 2H25, while Governor Glapinski's hawkish rhetoric continues to stand out.

THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czech Republic)

Expectations of a 25bp cut from the CNB grew as Czech inflation undershot expectations in December, while Governor Michl described a resumption of easing as "very likely", following similar hints from Eva Zamrazilova and Jan Prochazka. While a cut seems to be the market's baseline scenario, Czechia's first flash CPI release, due on the day of the meeting, may still affect the final decision.

THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)

Consensus has been building towards Banxico accelerating the easing pace in February, with the committee expected to cut the key rate by 50bps to 9.5%. This would be in line with prior dovish rhetoric in the December statement, which indicated that larger downward adjustments could be considered in some meetings. Supporting a bolder cut is the continued progress lower for headline inflation, weaker-than-expected domestic GDP data and the loss of one of the most hawkish voices of the committee. However, amid the heightened uncertainty related to US tariffs and the associated MXN sensitivity, the decision is by no means a foregone conclusion.

FRIDAY - RBI Decision (India)

The Reserve Bank of India meets for the first time this year to decide on interest rates.  Despite economic data being strong, GDP estimates for 2025 at 6.4%, PMI’s Manufacturing at +56.6, Industrial Production at+ 5.2%, India has a liquidity problem.  In December the RBI surprised some market participants by cutting the reserve ratio by 50bps, and since has announced measures to buy bonds as an attempt to add liquidity.  The next logical step, despite inflation still being on the high side, would be to cut rates.  Consensus has moved quickly in recent weeks to a cut and we agree that the likely path (in the new Governor’s first meeting) is a cut of 25bps, with no change to the reserve ratio.  

 

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
03/02/2025	2200/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/02/2025	-		GB	Bank of England Meeting
03/02/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
03/02/2025	0030/1130	**	AU	Retail Trade
03/02/2025	0030/1130	***	AU	Retail trade quarterly
03/02/2025	0030/1130	*	AU	Building Approvals
03/02/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI
03/02/2025	0700/0200	*	TR	Turkey CPI
03/02/2025	0815/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/02/2025	0845/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/02/2025	0850/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/02/2025	0855/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/02/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/02/2025	0930/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
03/02/2025	1000/1100	***	EU	HICP (p)
03/02/2025	1000/1100	***	IT	HICP (p)
03/02/2025	-	***	US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
03/02/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final)
03/02/2025	1500/1000	***	US	ISM Manufacturing Index
03/02/2025	1500/1000	*	US	Construction Spending
03/02/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
03/02/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
03/02/2025	1730/1230		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
03/02/2025	2330/1830		US	St, Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem
04/02/2025	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
04/02/2025	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
04/02/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
04/02/2025	1500/1000	**	US	Factory New Orders
04/02/2025	1500/1000	***	US	JOLTS jobs opening level
04/02/2025	1500/1000	***	US	JOLTS quits Rate
04/02/2025	1600/1100		US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
04/02/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
04/02/2025	1900/1400		US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
05/02/2025	2200/0900	*	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI
05/02/2025	2200/0900	**	AU	S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI
05/02/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	average wages (p)
05/02/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI
05/02/2025	0030/0930	**	JP	S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI
04/02/2025	0030/1930		US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
05/02/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Services PMI
05/02/2025	0145/0945	**	CN	S&P Global Final China Composite PMI
05/02/2025	0745/0845	*	FR	Industrial Production
05/02/2025	0815/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/02/2025	0815/0915	**	ES	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/02/2025	0845/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/02/2025	0845/0945	**	IT	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/02/2025	0850/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/02/2025	0850/0950	**	FR	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/02/2025	0855/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/02/2025	0855/0955	**	DE	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/02/2025	0900/1000	*	IT	Retail Sales
05/02/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/02/2025	0900/1000	**	EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (final)
05/02/2025	0930/0930	**	GB	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
05/02/2025	0930/0930	***	GB	S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI
05/02/2025	1000/1100	**	EU	PPI
05/02/2025	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
05/02/2025	1315/0815	***	US	ADP Employment Report
05/02/2025	1330/0830	**	CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
05/02/2025	1330/0830	**	CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
05/02/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Trade Balance
05/02/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Treasury Quarterly Refunding
05/02/2025	1400/1500		EU	ECB's Lane at Euro area in 2025 event and Q&A
05/02/2025	1400/0900		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
05/02/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global Services Index (final)
05/02/2025	1445/0945	***	US	S&P Global US Final Composite PMI
05/02/2025	1500/1000	***	US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
05/02/2025	1500/1000	**	US	housing vacancies
05/02/2025	1530/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
05/02/2025	1800/1300		US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
05/02/2025	2000/1500		US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
06/02/2025	0030/1130	**	AU	Trade Balance
05/02/2025	0030/1930		US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
06/02/2025	0645/0745	**	CH	Unemployment
06/02/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Manufacturing Orders
06/02/2025	0700/0800		SE	Flash CPI
06/02/2025	0830/0930	**	EU	S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06/02/2025	0930/0930	**	GB	S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
06/02/2025	1000/1100	**	EU	Retail Sales
06/02/2025	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
06/02/2025	1200/1200	***	GB	Bank Of England Interest Rate
06/02/2025	1230/1230		GB	BOE MPR press conference
06/02/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
06/02/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
06/02/2025	1330/0830	**	US	Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity
06/02/2025	1400/1400		GB	Decision Maker Panel data
06/02/2025	1500/1000	*	CA	Ivey PMI
06/02/2025	1530/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
06/02/2025	1900/1400	***	MX	Mexico Interest Rate
06/02/2025	1930/1430		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
06/02/2025	2200/1700		CA	BOC Governor speaks on panel at Banxico conference
06/02/2025	2210/1710		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
07/02/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	Household spending
07/02/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
07/02/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Industrial Production
07/02/2025	0745/0845	*	FR	Foreign Trade
07/02/2025	0800/0900	**	ES	Industrial Production
07/02/2025	0845/0945		EU	ECB's De Guindos remarks in 'VI Encuentro Economico-Asegurador' conference
07/02/2025	1215/1215		GB	BOE's Pill at National MPC Agency briefing
07/02/2025	-		EU	ECB to publish report on R*
07/02/2025	1330/0830	***	CA	Labour Force Survey
07/02/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Report
07/02/2025	1425/0925		US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
07/02/2025	1500/1000	**	US	Wholesale Trade
07/02/2025	1500/1000	**	US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
07/02/2025	1700/1200		US	Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
07/02/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
07/02/2025	2000/1500	*	US	Consumer Credit