MNI Global Week Ahead: BOE, Banxico; Canadian / NZ Labour Data
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
WEDNESDAY - New Zealand Labour Market
NZ Q2 labour market data print on August 6 and it is likely to show a contraction in employment and a further pickup in the unemployment rate and as a result further moderation in wage inflation. Q2 filled jobs fell 0.3% q/q after -0.1% signalling that there was job shedding in the quarter. The unemployment rate was stable in Q1 at 5.1%, helped by a 0.1pp fall in the participation rate, but this was up almost 2pp since the Q1 2022 trough. The economic recovery remains lacklustre despite 225bp of easing and thus given the lags the labour market is yet to pickup again.
THURSDAY - Bank of England Decision
- The modal expectation is a 2-5-2 vote split (7/17).
- 11 expect two votes for 50bp cut, 3 expect one vote, 3 expect no votes for 50bp cut
- 2 expect three votes for on hold, 9 expect two votes on hold, 4 expect 1 vote on hold, 2 expect no votes for on hold.
- 2-4-3 (50-25-0) is the most split committee from an analyst base case, 0-9-0 is also an analyst base case.
FRIDAY - Canada Labour Market
Consensus is for Canadian employment to rise by a net 15.0k in July's Labour Force Survey, after a surprisingly strong 83.1k June marked a 6-month best. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up a tenth to 7.0% from the 6.9% seen in June . Key to the Bank of Canada's perception of the data will be whether continued weakness in US tariff-impacted goods sector jobs spreads more broadly across the economy, which wasn't the case in June when services-producing jobs rose by a 28-month best 73.1k. The July BOC decision statement noted "Labour market conditions have weakened in sectors affected by trade, but employment has held up in other parts of the economy."
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - RBI Decision (India)
The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% in August after the hawkish shift in stance to neutral at the June meeting raised the bar for more rate cuts. A minority of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 25bp reduction at this meeting, but such a move would put additional pressure on the rupee and is therefore unlikely – albeit inflation has fallen to a 6-year low.
THURSDAY - CNB Decision (Czechia)
The CNB is expected to stand pat on rates as rising property prices and improving domestic demand generate inflationary risks, with recent communications suggesting that the easing cycle may be halted for some time - or indeed already finished.
THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)
After four consecutive 50bp rate cuts, Banxico’s governing board is widely expected to slow the easing pace in August and deliver a 25bp cut in the overnight rate to 7.75%. This would be consistent with signalling at the previous monetary policy meeting that several board members intend to proceed more cautiously with rate cuts ahead, amid an increase in core CPI inflation pressures.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 01/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** |  US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 01/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 04/08/2025 | - |  GB | Bank of England Meeting | |
| 04/08/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** |  CH | CPI |
| 04/08/2025 | 0700/0300 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 04/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 04/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Factory New Orders |
| 04/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 04/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 05/08/2025 | 2300/0900 | * |  AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 05/08/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** | AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 05/08/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 05/08/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 05/08/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** |  CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
| 05/08/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
| 05/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | * |  FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | Industrial Production |
| 05/08/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 05/08/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 05/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | PPI |
| 05/08/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 05/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 05/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 05/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 05/08/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 05/08/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 05/08/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 05/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 05/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 06/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | average wages (p) |
| 06/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06/08/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | IT | Industrial Production |
| 06/08/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06/08/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 06/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 06/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 06/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 06/08/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | |
| 06/08/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 06/08/2025 | 1910/1510 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 07/08/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance |
| 07/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Trade Balance |
| 07/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 07/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | CH | Unemployment |
| 07/08/2025 | 1100/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 07/08/2025 | 1130/1230 | GB | BOE Press Conference | |
| 07/08/2025 | - | *** | CN | Trade |
| 07/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 07/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 07/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |
| 07/08/2025 | 1300/1400 | GB | BOE Decision Maker Panel Data BOE Decision Maker Panel Data | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 07/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 07/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 07/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 07/08/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 07/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 07/08/2025 | 1900/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
| 07/08/2025 | 1900/1500 | *** |  MX | Mexico Interest Rate |
| 08/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
| 08/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | JP | Balance of Payments | |
| 08/08/2025 | 0500/1400 | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 08/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 08/08/2025 | 1115/1215 | GB | BOE Pill At National MPC Agency Briefing | |
| 08/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 08/08/2025 | 1420/1020 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem |
