MNI Global Week Ahead - Backloaded Calendar Next Week
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets this week:
TUESDAY - NBH Decision (Hungary)
The National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep the base rate on hold at 6.50% again this month, sticking to its ‘cautious and patient’ approach to monetary policy. Officials are likely to strike a hawkish tone and reiterate their commitment to achieving and maintaining price stability given that headline inflation expected to remain above the upper bound of the central bank’s tolerance range in the coming months. MNI's full preview is here.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision (South Korea)
The Bank of Korea ("BOK") meets next week on August 28 with the market consensus at this stage for no change. At the prior meeting, the BOK held rates steady with the ongoing surge in Seoul property prices and global uncertainty due to tariffs, the drivers. The BOK had cut in May and a subsequent government implemented strict mortgage regulation was announced. The policy capped mortgage loans for home purchases in the capital region at 600 million won and suspended home-backed loans for multi-homeowners. BOK Gov. Rhee Chang-yong has guided that the pace of rate cuts would be adjusted based on housing market conditions, despite the ongoing monetary easing cycle that began in October 2024. Seoul property prices rose +1.2% MoM in July.
THURSDAY - BSP Decision (Philippines)
The Central Bank of the Philippines (the BSP) is expected to cut rates at their meeting on August 28, according to market consensus. The Philippine Central Bank indicated last week it may deliver the first of two further interest rate cuts this year at its August 28 policy meeting as inflation remains subdued. BSP Governor Remolona said it was "quite likely" the bank would lower its key policy rate later this month, reiterating its easing bias to support growth amid global uncertainties and as inflation continues to slow.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US Q2 GDP and July PCE
Thursday sees the second estimate for Q2 national accounts, offering revisions to real GDP growth of 3.0% annualized having surprised stronger in the flash release (consensus 2.6%, GDPNow 2.9%) after -0.5% in Q1. Smoothing the tariff-distorted quarters out, the average of 1.2% annualized in 1H25 was a clear slowdown from the 2.5% in 2024. Domestic demand will continue to be watched for signs of underlying economic strength after PDFP slowed to 1.2% in Q2 for its slowest quarter since 4Q22. Similarly, the 1.6% in 1H25 followed 3.0% in 2024. Residential investment was a sizeable drag within private domestic demand with a -0.2pp contribution as the housing market remains under pressure. Core PCE inflation revisions for Q2 can also give hints as to what to expect in Friday’s monthly release.
On that note, Friday sees the PCE and incomes report for July for a useful update on consumer momentum early in Q3. Early days for Bloomberg consensus points to a 0.3% M/M increase in real spending, helped by a solid (nominal) retail sales report that also included upward revisions. Income growth has been playing a strong role here and is expected to continue to do so, seen rising a 0.5% M/M after 0.3% M/M and preventing a decline in the saving ratio. Core PCE inflation meanwhile is seen somewhat centered on a 0.3% M/M print although perhaps more likely to be in the high 0.2s than low 0.3s. This would mark the fourth consecutive monthly acceleration, including 0.26% M/M in June prior to any revisions, and would leave year-ago inflation at ~2.9% Y/Y as it consolidates a stabilization in core inflation at above target rates.
FRIDAY - Japan End of Month Data Releases
FRIDAY - Eurozone Country-level Flash Inflation Data
Signals from flash PMI data, President Lagarde’s speech and the latest Bloomberg sources piece all but ensure the ECB deposit rate will be held at 2.00% in September. Focus now turns to the August flash inflation round (starting on Friday with country level data), which alongside the final Q2 GDP report on September 5th will be the last major inputs before the ECB’s September decision.
Early consensus based on the previews MNI has seen looks for the Eurozone-wide headline HICP reading to tick up a tenth to 2.1% Y/Y (on higher energy prices), while the core measure is expected to ease a tenth to 2.2% Y/Y (on softer services). Such a dynamic would be in line with the ECB's broader view of the inflation outlook, and shouldn't have a material impact on market pricing. ECB-dated OIS currently price 18bps of cuts through June 2026. The Eurozone-wide data is not released until September 2, but country-level data from Spain, France, Germany and Italy are all due on Friday.
The week ahead also includes the August European Commission sentiment survey, and ECB consumer expectations for July.
FRIDAY - Canada Q2 GDP
Current Bloomberg analyst consensus shows Q2 data are expected to show a 0.7% Q/Q annualized contraction, versus +2.2% in Q1. The private sector consensus is more optimistic than the Bank of Canada's -1.5% estimate in its July Monetary Policy Report (which MNI thinks is too low) but the component-by-component breakdown is similar if of differing magnitudes. Widely expected are: a softening in household consumption growth, with a pickup in government spending, continued weakness in fixed investment, and a reversal of Q2's positive contribution from net exports. Going forward, the BOC envisages growth resuming in Q3 (+1.0% in its "current tariff" scenario). In the meantime, a weak Q2 reading could provide Governing Council with more conviction to resume easing rates in September.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 25/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | PPI |
| 25/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** |  DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises |
| 25/08/2025 | 1300/1500 | ** |  BE | BNB Business Confidence |
| 25/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** |  US | New Home Sales |
| 25/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
| 25/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 25/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 25/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 25/08/2025 | 1915/1515 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 26/08/2025 | 2301/0001 | * |  GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 25/08/2025 | 2315/1915 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 26/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  SE | PPI |
| 26/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** |  FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26/08/2025 | - | GB | DMO to hold FQ3 consultations with investors / GEMMs | |
| 26/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 26/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 26/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 26/08/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 26/08/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 26/08/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 26/08/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 26/08/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 26/08/2025 | 1300/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
| 26/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 26/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 26/08/2025 | 1400/1500 | GB | BOE Mann at Banxico Conference (text release) | |
| 26/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 26/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 26/08/2025 | 1830/1430 | CA | BOC Governor speech in Mexico City | |
| 27/08/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** |  AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
| 27/08/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly construction work done |
| 27/08/2025 | 0600/1400 | ** |  CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
| 27/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27/08/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 27/08/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 27/08/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 27/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 27/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 27/08/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 27/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 28/08/2025 | 0130/1130 | * | AU | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure |
| 28/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
| 28/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** |  CH | GDP |
| 28/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  EU | M3 |
| 28/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 28/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 28/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Current account |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 28/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP / PCE Quarterly |
| 28/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 28/08/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 28/08/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 28/08/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 28/08/2025 | 2200/1800 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 29/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | * |  JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 29/08/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 29/08/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | GDP |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 29/08/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 29/08/2025 | 0630/0730 | GB | DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar | |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 29/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 29/08/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | IT | GDP (f) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | Baden Wuerttemberg CPI |
| 29/08/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 29/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB de Guindos at Cursos Europeos de Verano | |
| 29/08/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 1200/1400 | *** | DE | Germany CPI (p) |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 29/08/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 29/08/2025 | 1342/0942 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 29/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 29/08/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 29/08/2025 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
