MNI Global Week Ahead - A Few CBs As US Shutdown Continues
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets in the coming week.
THROUGH THE WEEK - US Government Shutdown
With the Senate's fourth vote on the GOP and competing Democratic funding bills failing on Friday, the US Government Shutdown is expected to continue into next week. At the time of writing, roughly 67% of bettors on Polymarket believe the shutdown is likely to last between 10 and 29 days. An additional 17% believe the shutdown will persist longer than a month. For markets, one area of focus is the timing of data releases that have been delayed because of the shutdown, most notably the September Employment report. MNI will update clients on Shutdown developments through the week as usual.
Wednesday - RBNZ Decision
The RBNZ decision will be announced Wednesday 8 October and it is widely expected to continue easing policy but what is unclear is by how much. After Q2 GDP fell 0.9% q/q, more than the RBNZ projected in August, expectations of a 50bp rate cut increased. Monthly data for Q3 have shown there is a recovery but it remains soft, while price series are showing elevated food and power price inflation. The new governor will start in December after the last meeting for 2025.
Wednesday - BOT Decision (Thailand)
The new BoT Governor Vitai took over on October 1 and in his inaugural speech he said that he would adopt accommodative monetary policy in order to support growth. The government often pressured his predecessor Sethaput to cut rates and Vitai has said that he will ensure the central bank's independence. Given his tone and continued THB strength, it is likely that rates will be cut 25bp to 1.25% on Wednesday 8 October but decisions are made by an MPC vote and preferences to use limited policy space at another time have previously resulted in delays. The BoT cut rates 25bp in August.
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
Analysts are divided on whether the National Bank of Poland will deliver another 25bp rate cut in October, with a majority (7/10 analysts polled by Bloomberg) currently leaning towards a hold. The pace of forthcoming easing is likely to become clearer when the central bank publishes its next inflation report in November, and the meeting that month is therefore seen as a more likely point to continue easing. Nonetheless, ongoing benign inflation readings support the case for what would be a third consecutive rate cut as early as this month.
THURSDAY - BSP Decision (Philippines)
The Central Bank of the Philippines, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ("BSP") meets next Thursday for it's second last meeting for 2025. The BSP was one of the first regional Central Banks to start cutting rates last year, reducing the Target RRP rate by 150bps since. Whilst the market is not expecting a further cut in the borrowing rate at the October meeting, consensus has moved over recent days towards a reduction in the BSP Standing Overnight Deposit Facility Rate from 4.50% to 4.35%.
THURSDAY - BCRP Decision (Peru)
The BCRP is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.25% next week, although latest softer-than-expected CPI inflation data still keep the door open to another cut. After delivering the expected 25bp reduction to 4.25% last month, the central bank said that the policy rate was now very close to neutral, and Governor Velarde has subsequently said that there is no need to be aggressive with rate cuts. With growth still around potential there is little urgency to cut next week, but some analysts still see scope for one final move later in the quarter.
FRIDAY - Canada September Labour Market Data
Friday's Labour Force Survey is not expected to dissuade the Bank of Canada from cutting rates for a 2nd consecutive meeting in October, with the early analyst consensus eyeing a third consecutive fall in employment in September (-2.5k) with another uptick in the unemployment rate (0.1pp to 7.2%). The prior two months of declines totaling over 100k left employment only minimally above the level at the start of the year, with the unemployment rate having risen from 6.6% in February. More concerning for the BOC, whose September meeting deliberations note "members agreed that the labour market had softened", employment weakness is showing signs of spreading into sectors not directly related to tariff-hit trade with the US. Another poor figure could tilt the balance slightly more toward a 25bp follow-up cut on October 29 (currently market-priced at about 55%).
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 06/10/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  ES | Industrial Production |
| 06/10/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** |  CH | Unemployment |
| 06/10/2025 | 0715/0915 |  EU | ECB de Guindos Speech at Diario Expansion | |
| 06/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/10/2025 | 0730/0930 | *** |  FR | HCOB France Construction PMI |
| 06/10/2025 | 0800/1000 | EU | ECB Lane Keynote at ECB MonPol Conference | |
| 06/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Retail Sales |
| 06/10/2025 | 1500/1600 | GB | BOE Bailey Keynote at Scotland Global Investment Summit | |
| 06/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 06/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 06/10/2025 | 1700/1900 | EU | ECB Lagarde at ECON Hearing, European Parliament | |
| 06/10/2025 | 2100/1700 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 07/10/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Household spending |
| 07/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** |  DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 07/10/2025 | 0645/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 07/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 07/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 07/10/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 07/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/10/2025 | 1405/1005 | US | Fed's Miki Bowman | |
| 07/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | US | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | |
| 07/10/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 07/10/2025 | 1530/1130 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 07/10/2025 | 1610/1810 | EU | ECB Lagarde Speech at Business France Event | |
| 07/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 07/10/2025 | 1900/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit |
| 07/10/2025 | 2005/1605 | US | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | |
| 08/10/2025 | - |  NZ | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting | |
| 08/10/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | average wages (p) |
| 08/10/2025 | 2350/0850 | JP | Balance of Payments | |
| 08/10/2025 | 0100/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 08/10/2025 | 0500/1400 | JP | Economy Watcher's Survey | |
| 08/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production |
| 08/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 08/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | SE | Flash Inflation Report |
| 08/10/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 08/10/2025 | 1030/1230 | EU | ECB Elderson In Panel at Finance Conference | |
| 08/10/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 08/10/2025 | 1320/0920 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 08/10/2025 | 1330/0930 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 08/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 08/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | US DOE Petroleum Supply |
| 08/10/2025 | 1500/1600 | GB | BOE Pill Speech at University of Birmingham | |
| 08/10/2025 | 1600/1800 | EU | ECB Lagarde Video Message at Werner Report Event | |
| 08/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 08/10/2025 | 1800/1400 | US | FOMC Minutes | |
| 08/10/2025 | 1915/1515 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 08/10/2025 | 2145/1745 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 09/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Trade Balance |
| 09/10/2025 | 0830/0930 | GB | BOE Mann Keynote at Resolution Foundation Event | |
| 09/10/2025 | 1145/0745 | CA | BOC Sr Deputy Gov Rogers speaks in Toronto (time TBC) | |
| 09/10/2025 | - | EU | ECB Lagarde & Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting | |
| 09/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 09/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 09/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 09/10/2025 | 1235/0835 | US | Fed's Miki Bowman | |
| 09/10/2025 | 1245/0845 | US | Fed's Miki Bowman | |
| 09/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 09/10/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 09/10/2025 | 1500/1700 | EU | ECB Lane Round Table at Irish Investment Managers Event | |
| 09/10/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 09/10/2025 | 1645/1245 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 09/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 09/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 09/10/2025 | 1945/1545 | US | Fed's Miki Bowman | |
| 10/10/2025 | 2301/0001 | GB | KPMG / REC Report on Jobs | |
| 10/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/10/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/10/2025 | 0900/1100 | * |  IT | Industrial Production |
| 10/10/2025 | - | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting | |
| 10/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 10/10/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 10/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 10/10/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectation |
| 10/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 10/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 10/10/2025 | 1700/1300 | US | St Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 10/10/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
