MNI: FRANCE JUN MANUF SENTIMENT AT 99
Jun-21 06:45
- MNI: FRANCE JUN MANUF SENTIMENT AT 99
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USD: Cable tests immediate resistance
May-22 06:35
- The Kiwi was leading overnight following an Hawkish tilt from the RNBZ, the currency was up 0.56% and traded at its highest level since the 14th March, but has since faded going into the European session, now up 0.49%.
- Early mover is of course the Pound, with Cable spiking some 40 pips following the UK Inflation coming above consensus.
- GBPUSD tests immediate resistance right here at 1.2754 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 22 bear leg, printed a 1.2753 high.
- Further out would see, 1.2803 High Mar 21.
STIR: Hawkish Repricing In EUR STIRs Following UK CPI
May-22 06:35
The firmer-than-expected UK CPI reading promotes a hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs, with Euribor futures flat to -5.0 through the blues.
- The latest RBNZ decision had no tangible impact on EUR STIRs overnight.
- Late Tuesday saw ECB President Lagarde reiterate that a 25bps rate cut at the June meeting was likely, but she continued to align herself with the wider GC, not committing to a rate path beyond that gathering.
- Bundesbank President Nagel was a little more cautious, in line with his hawkish leanings, in warning against cutting rates “hastily” after June. Nagel noted that developments in wage growth appear to be headed in the right direction.
- ECB-dated OIS contracts price 65bps of easing through the remainder of 2024 (vs 69bps at yesterday’s close), while a 25bps June cut remains over 90% discounted.
- Today’s regional calendar is light, with focus on tomorrow’s May flash PMIs and Q1 ECB negotiated wages data.
- President Lagarde’s scheduled appearance at 0905BST is unlikely to be market moving, focusing on the effectiveness of capital markets in the EU.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-24 | 3.674 | -23.8 |
| Jul-24 | 3.633 | -27.9 |
| Sep-24 | 3.465 | -44.7 |
| Oct-24 | 3.400 | -51.2 |
| Dec-24 | 3.260 | -65.2 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Holding On To Its Gains
May-22 06:28
- RES 4: 5417.75 2.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5400.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5372.73 1.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: 5349.25 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5343.75 @ 07:15 BST May 22
- SUP 1: 5240.67 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5185.94 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5036.25 Low May 2
- SUP 4: 4963.50 Low Apr 19 and bear trigger
The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Recent gains have resulted in a break of a key resistance at 5333.50, Apr 1 high. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and signals scope for a climb to 5372.73, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial support is at 5229.67, the 20-day EMA.
