MNI: FRANCE AUG MANUF SENTIMENT AT 99
- MNI: FRANCE AUG MANUF SENTIMENT AT 99
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STIR: Year-end ECB Easing Expectations Inch Towards Recent Dovish Extremes
Year-end ECB implied rates have inched back towards the post-June meeting dovish extremes, with OIS currently pricing 47bps of easing through the remainder of this year.
- There remains an ~80% implied probability of a 25bp cut through the September meeting, with VP de Guindos the latest to hint at such a move yesterday morning.
- De Guindos and Lane are both have scheduled appearances at the ongoing ECB-IMF conference on “Global Challenges and Channels for Fiscal and Monetary Policy”.
- De Guindos chairs the keynote session covering “Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents”, while Lane appears on a panel on “The global 'new normal': fragmentation, tensions, and uncertainty”.
- PMIs headline the regional data calendar, with the BoC decision also of interest this afternoon.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Sep-24 | 3.462 | -20.3 |
| Oct-24 | 3.393 | -27.2 |
| Dec-24 | 3.195 | -47.0 |
| Jan-25 | 3.096 | -56.9 |
| Mar-25 | 2.926 | -73.9 |
| Apr-25 | 2.835 | -83.0 |
| Jun-25 | 2.677 | -98.8 |
| Jul-25 | 2.600 | -106.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Stable Above Lows
- RES 4: 5786.66 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5764.00 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: 5741 34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: 5721.25 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 5561.00 @ 07:40 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 5542.00 Low Jul 19
- SUP 2: 5501.50 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5398.75 Low Jun 11
- SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
Prices returned lower early Wednesday on the back of poor after-market earnings, pressuring the Jul 19 lows at 5542.00. Any renewed weakness through here would challenge the 50-day EMA and key support of 5501.50. The broader trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the slip lower into last week’s close appears to be a correction. MA studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5741.34, a Fibonacci projection.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Recovers Off Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 1: 4994.76/5087.00 50-day EMA / High Jul 12
- PRICE: 4911.00 @ 07:35 BST Jul 24
- SUP 1: 4860.00 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4848.00 Low Jul 19
- SUP 3: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 4800.00 Round number support
A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact, despite the pullback in prices into the Friday close. Prices recovered well across the Monday and Tuesday sessions, however the move lower last week undermines the bullish theme somewhat, with price having tested the bear trigger at 4860.00, the Jun 14 low. Clearance of this level would expose 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key reversal point. For bulls, a move higher and a break of 5087.00, the Jul 12 high, would again highlight a bullish theme.
