MNI: FRANCE APR MANUF SENTIMENT AT 100

• RES 4: 167.45 1.382 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 2: 166.00/36 Round number resistance / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 165.35 High Mar 20
• PRICE: 164.22 @ 06:42 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 162.84 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 161.61 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 3: 160.22 Low Mar 11
• SUP 4: 159.47 Low Feb 8

The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and recent weakness appears to be a correction. The move on Mar 20, through 164.30, the Nov 16 ‘23 high and a medium-term bull trigger confirms a resumption of the long-term uptrend. The break higher opens the 166.00 handle and 166.32, the top of a MA envelope. Initial firm support lies at 162.84, the 20-day EMA. Trendline support, drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, lies at 161.61.

Austria, Italy and Greece are due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany and France have already come to the market this week. We expect issuance to be E22.6bln in first round operations, up from E18.2bln last week.

• Today, Austria will look to come to the market with E1.0bln of the 3-month Jul 25, 2024 ATB and E1.0bln of the new 6-month Oct 31, 2024 ATB.
• Also today, Italy will look to sell E1.5bln of the 3-month Jun 14, 2024 BOT and E7.0bln of the new 6-month Sep 30, 2024 BOT.
• Finally tomorrow, Greece will look to issue E625mln of the new 26-week Sep 27, 2024 GTB.

For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
• RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 1: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 99.29 @ Close Mar 25
• SUP 1: 98.91/05 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Despite yesterday’s pullback, Gilt futures remain closer to their recent highs. A continuation higher would expose key short-term resistance at 100.37, the Mar 13 low, where a break would strengthen any developing bullish theme. Key short-term support has been defined at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. A break would be bearish. For now, 98.05 and 100.37 mark the key short-term directional triggers.