MNI FOMC Minutes Preview – Jun 2025

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Our preview of the June FOMC meeting includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum; analyst previews; and key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the June meeting.

• The minutes of the June 17-18 FOMC meeting (released Wednesday Jul 9 at 2pm ET) should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty, as encapsulated in the meeting's Dot Plot which showed participants largely divided between no cuts and 2 cuts by year-end.
• We have heard significant dovishness on the rate front from Board members Bowman and Waller since June's meeting, and while they appear to be outliers, it could be interesting to see whether any other members tend to agree with the view that the incoming tariff inflation will be largely transitory.
• In addition, we will be watching to see what the flavor of the discussion is around easing thresholds: how many months of inflation data would convince that tariffs are transitory, for instance, and would that be enough in itself to permit further rate cuts, or would it require a further deterioration in the labor market.
• With the Fed otherwise firmly in "wait-and-see"' mode, particularly since the June employment report looked too solid to cut at end-month, there will be some added focus this time on any discussion of the Fed's 5-year policy review. The new framework is due to be wrapped up by late summer (possibly at the Jackson Hole symposium in late August.
• Additionally, we will be watching for discussion on the format of the much-maligned "Dot Plot" - Powell noted at the press conference that the Committee discussed "enhancements to our suite of communication tools" at a high level, including the Summary of Economic Projections, and said that this would be reviewed in the fall.