FED: MNI Fed Preview-September 2025: A Reluctant Return To Easing
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ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Thursday
| 0001BST | 0701HKT | 0901AEST | UK July RICS House Price Balance |
| 0130BST | 0830HKT | 1030AEST | Australia Bill Sale |
| 0200BST | 0900HKT | 1100AEST | Australia 2035 Inflation Linked Bond Sale |
| 0230BST | 0930HKT | 1130AEST | Australia July Jobs Data |
| 0335BST | 1035HKT | 1235AEST | New Zealand 2029, 2037 Bond Sale |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
EQUITIES: Rate-Sensitive Sectors Buoyed By Fed Cut Expectations
Equity indices edged up Wednesday, helped by increasing expectations of the Federal Reserve resuming its easing cycle in September. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw fresh record high closes albeit off mid-morning session intraday highs.
- Unlike Tuesday, sectoral performances were a little more mixed though most were in the green. Within the S&P, materials (+1.7%) and health care (+1.6%) led gains, with consumer staples (-0.4%) and communication services (-0.5%) lagging.
- Homebuilders and other rate-sensitive sectors showed notable strength, as rate futures pricing showed a September 25bp Fed cut now fully discounted: the Dow outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq on strong performances by Home Depot (+2.9%) and Sherwin-Williams (+3.1%).
- Latest futures levels: Dow Jones mini up 483 pts or +1.08% at 45040, S&P 500 mini up 20 pts or +0.31% at 6488.5, NASDAQ mini down 5.5 pts or -0.02% at 23933.5.
USDCAD TECHS: Shallow Bounce Off Lows
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 1.3761 @ 16:01 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD remains subdued, despite the shallow bounce Friday feeding through to further gains on Monday. The reversal off highs on Tuesday affirms this theme. The pair remains notably lower on the week on the back of last Friday’s USD weakness. Initial firm support has been breached at the 1.3737 20-day EMA, a break below which would resume the correction off the early August high at 1.3879. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3746, which aided the rally. This week’s price action, however, has cancelled that bullish threat and returned focus lower. The 100-dma becomes a key pivot point at 1.3814 last.
