MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – August 2023
Aug-29 13:28By: Tim Cooper and 1 more...
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Progress, But ECB’s Job May Not Be Done
The upcoming round of Eurozone inflation prints for August (Aug 30-31) will arguably play the key role in deciding whether the ECB decides to hike rates at the September meeting (currently just under 50% probability of a 25bp raise, per market pricing).
- Eurozone headline HICP is seen softening to 5.1% Y/Y from 5.3% in August - with core at 5.3% vs 5.5% prior.
- August flash data in line with consensus is seen providing support for a pause in the ECB deposit rate at 3.75%.
- The more dovish ECB elements may point to a reduction in momentum in inflation in recent months, including in key underlying metrics (see report for MNI’s analysis).
- Our preview includes analysis of several key areas to watch, short outlooks for the national inflation prints prior to the eurozone release, and sell-side analyst previews.
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