EUROPEAN INFLATION: MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – September 2025
Oct-03 12:40
We have published the MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight, with the full report found here.
- Eurozone September headline HICP inflation printed broadly in line with consensus expectations on Tuesday, at 2.23% (consensus 2.2%) for an acceleration versus August’s 2.04%.
- As we flagged in our preview ahead of country-level data, such a marginal upside surprise was not sufficient to ensure a material tilt in EUR rates, with markets expecting both the October and December ECB meetings to remain largely out of play.
- Across categories, food, alcohol and tobacco (FAT) was the only notable surprise, coming in softer than expected at 3.04%Y/Y (down from 3.19%Y/Y where it was expected to remain).
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CANADA DATA: Q2 Labour Productivity Down As US Trade War Hits Factories
Sep-03 12:39
- Canada labour productivity -1.0% in Q2 as GDP -0.7% and hours worked +0.3%. It was the biggest decline since Q4 2022, StatsCan says Wed.
- Manufacturing and wholesale were the biggest contributors to the decline amid US trade tensions.
- Q2 hourly compensation (-0.5%) decreased for the first time since the first quarter of 2021.
- Productivity YOY was 0.0%.
STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'25 SOFR Scale Seller
Sep-03 12:36
Total 40,000 SFRU5 sold over last 30 minutes from 95.9075 to 95.91, latest cross of 20k at 95.91 at 0828:38ET keeping the short end anchored.
OAT: Natixis Recommend Real Yield Entry
Sep-03 12:31
Natixis recommend going long OATei ’36.
- They argue that “much of the French political risk is already priced in and any negative surprises regarding Eurozone growth could lead to a quick decline in real yields”.
