MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – April 2025

DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT HERE

• Eurozone April flash HICP printed 2.2% Y/Y, 0.1pp above consensus expectations. Core inflation saw a more meaningful 0.2pp ‘beat’ at 2.7% Y/Y as services inflation sped up to a pace last seen in January – coming in above the highest analyst estimate we had seen for our preview of the release.
• However, some of the national-level data released over the last week points towards the Easter Effect having been stronger than expected by analysts, which, if true, would open up the possibility for a partial reversal in the services category in May.
• Across the main countries, higher-than-expected readings could be observed in Germany, France, Spain, and, notably, the Netherlands. Only Italy was softer than forecast at 2.1% (vs 2.3% cons).
• MNI last Tuesday published a sources story highlighting that for the next June meeting, the more hawkish cohort of the ECB governing council warns that a “lively debate” will be seen despite “general expectations” for a cut.