EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: USD BBDXY Index & 10yr Nominal Tsy Yield
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv
EU
TRADE (BBG): "European Commission has launched “swift and proportionate countermeasures” on US imports into the EU, in response to the imposition of US tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports."
ECONOMY (POLITICO): “European Union leaders want to double down on cutting back red tape, lowering energy prices and unlocking private savings to jumpstart the bloc’s economy, according to a draft joint statement dated March 10 and obtained by POLITICO. They will convene in Brussels March 20-21 as part of the next European Council.”
DEFENCE (MNI): The European Commission looks set to stick with its proposal for a four-year national escape clause from the bloc's fiscal rules for states which boost their defence spending in its White Paper on defence funding due next week, according to sources close to the talks.
UKRAINE (BBC): “Ukraine has said it is ready to accept an immediate 30-day ceasefire with Russia proposed by the US, after a day of US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would present the offer to Russia and that "the ball is in their court".”
RUSSIA (BBG): “Less than two weeks after Donald Trump lambasted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in an Oval Office confrontation, the US president put the pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire agreement hammered out with Zelenskiy’s advisers.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “The United States will immediately lift the pause in intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine, according to a joint statement issued after a meeting of the Ukrainian and U.S. delegations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.”
POLAND/TURKEY (ECONOMIST): “Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, heads to Ankara, Turkey’s capital, on Wednesday. He will discuss defence and security co-operation with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president. Mr Tusk will want to gauge whether his host would send peacekeepers or provide security guarantees to Ukraine.”
PORTUGAL (BBG): “Portugal’s parliament toppled Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s center-right minority government in a confidence vote Tuesday, likely leading the country to its third early election in just over three years.”
ROMANIA (BBC): “Romanian far-right populist Calin Georgescu has lost his appeal against a ruling barring him from participating in May's presidential election. The Constitutional Court issued the final ruling on Tuesday afternoon after deliberating for two hours. It said the decision was unanimous.”
GREENLAND (BBG): “The Greenlandic party seeking the fastest breakup with Denmark stands to gain a major boost, according to early counting of the votes in the parliamentary elections that have been overshadowed by Donald Trump’s plans to take over the Arctic Island.”
US
US/CANADA (BBG): “President Donald Trump dialed back his latest trade-war threat against Canada hours after making it, while downplaying the risk of a tariff-led recession that’s sent US markets into a nosedive.”
TARIFFS (BBG): "President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force Wednesday, extending his trade wars to more of the US’s top trading partners in a risky bid to revive America’s industrial base. The president announced his plan last month to impose 25% duties on the metals. No exemptions have been granted."
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): Fed Nearly Done Easing Barring Slump-Benigno.
FISCAL (RTRS): “The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday passed a stopgap bill to keep federal agencies funded past Friday, averting a partial shutdown beginning this weekend even as President Donald Trump dramatically cuts the government.”
OTHER
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Tuesday he's only suspending a 25% tariff on electricity sent to the U.S. after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick agreed to talks on renewed free trade, warning escalation by President Donald Trump is damaging economies and stock markets.
CANADA (MNI): Farm industry leaders tell MNI they are pushing Canada's government to pay compensation for losses in a prolonged U.S. trade war and spend on expanded port and rail lines moving goods to new overseas markets, pressuring officials who are already missing deficit targets.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the rise in long-term interest rates reflects the change of market players’ view on the outlook for the economy and prices, and there is no contradiction between this and the BOJ.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan's corporate goods price index rose 4.0% y/y in February, slowing from January’s 4.2%, while import prices posted their first drop in three months, data released by the Bank of Japan showed on Wednesday.
JAPAN (RTRS): "Many of Japan's biggest companies from Toyota to tech conglomerates have met union demands for substantial wage hikes for a third consecutive year, seeking to help workers cope with inflation and retain staff amid labour shortages.
CHINA
PBOC (MNI): MNI speaks with the President of the PBOC's Shanghai head office. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
RETAIL SALES (CSJ): “China's retail sales of refrigerators and other household appliances rose 56.1% y/y between October and February, with furniture and TV and other audio-visual equipment up 28.5% and 23.3%, amid government purchase subsidies, China Securities Journal reported citing VAT invoice data released by the State Administration of Taxation (SAT).”
HOUSING (SECURITIES TIMES): “China’s plan to give local governments more autonomy on how they buy unsold homes from developers and how they use the properties should help ease bottlenecks in the purchase process, Securities Times reports.”
AUTOS (CAAM): “China’s car sales and production reached 2.12 and 2.10 million in February, up 34.4% and 39.6% y/y, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY177.8 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY175.4 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY177.8 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY353.2 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1696 Weds; -0.47% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1696 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1741 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2269 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND FEB. TOTAL CARD SPENDING UNCHANGED M/M; JAN. 0.0%
NEW ZEALAND FEB. RETAIL CARD SPENDING +0.3% M/M; JAN. -1.6%
JAPAN FEB. PRODUCER PRICES UNCHANGED M/M; EST. -0.1%; JAN. +0.3%
JAPAN FEB. PRODUCER PRICES +4.0% Y/Y; EST. +4.0%; JAN. +4.2%
JAPAN Q1 BSI LARGE MANUFACTURER CONFIDENCE -2.4 PPT Q/Q; Q4 +6.3
JAPAN Q1 BSI LARGE ALL-INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE +2.0 PPT Q/Q; Q4 +5.7
SOUTH KOREA FEB. ADJUSTED JOBLESS RATE 2.7%; EST. 3.0%; JAN. 2.9%
SOUTH KOREA FEB. EMPLOYED +136K Y/Y; JAN. +135K Y/Y
SOUTH KOREA FEB. HOUSEHOLD LENDING KRW1,143.7T; JAN. KRW1,140.5T
MARKETS
US TSYS: Futures Stronger Ahead Of CPI Data
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is 110-30, 0-03+ from closing levels.
JGBS: Cheaper Apart From 20Y After Supply, US CPI Due Later
JGB futures are weaker, -35 compared to settlement levels, after dealing in a narrow range.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, No Steel/AL Tariff Exemption For Oz, US CPI Out Later
ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -7.5) are weaker but mid-range on a data-light session.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A Bear-Steepener, US CPI Due Later Today
NZGBs closed showing a bear-steepener, with benchmark yields 5-7bps higher. That said, yields finished away from their worst levels, with US tsys partially retracing some of yesterday’s weakness.
FOREX: USD Edges Up, But Still Close To Recent Lows, Risk Appetite More Stable
The USD BBDXY index has ticked up as the Wednesday Asia Pac session has unfolded. We were last just above 1268.0, up around 0.20% versus end Tuesday levels in NY. The index continues to oscillate around its simple 200-day MA and isn't too far from recent lows of 1264.63. EUR/USD is already above its simple 200-day MA, but USD/CNY bounced off the 200-day MA support zone today.
ASIA STOCKS: Asia Equities Mixed, Eminis Still Sub 5600
Asia Pac equity market trends are mixed in Wednesday trade. We have seen higher trends for some of the tech sensitive plays. The South Korean Kospi is up around 1.5%, while the Taiex is also +1% firmer. In Japan, the Topix is up around 1.00%, but the NKY is up more modestly.
Fig 1: Australian Equities Nearly 10% Off Earlier Feb Highs
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
OIL: Prices Higher, US CPI, OPEC Report & EIA US Inventories Released Later
Oil prices have continued rising during today’s APAC session driven by reduced excess supply expectations. WTI is 0.7% higher at $66.72/bbl after falling to $66.49 before rising to $66.84. Brent is up 0.7% to $70.03/bbl after an intraday low of $69.79 and a high of $70.13. The USD index is up 0.2%.
GOLD: Bullion In Tight Range Ahead Of US CPI
Gold prices are little changed during APAC trading rising moderately to $2916.5/oz, close to March’s high of $2930.31. It is up 2.1% this month benefiting from flight-to-quality flows driven by increased global uncertainty. Risk appetite improved following the US taking a step back from an escalation of the US-Canada trade war and Ukraine agreeing to a US ceasefire proposal. This drove bullion down to $2910.96 early in today’s session but it has now recovered. Markets are waiting for US February CPI data out later.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
12/03/2025 | 0730/0730 | ![]() | DMO propose calendar for first 3 weeks of FY25/26 | |
12/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ![]() | Lagarde at "ECB and Its Watchers" conference Frankfurt | |
12/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
12/03/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | ![]() | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
12/03/2025 | 1100/1200 | ![]() | ECB Wage Tracker | |
12/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | New Loans |
12/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Money Supply |
12/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Social Financing |
12/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | CPI |
12/03/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | ![]() | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
12/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
12/03/2025 | 1515/1615 | ![]() | Lane at "ECB and Its Watchers" conference Frankfurt | |
12/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
12/03/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | ![]() | Treasury Budget |
13/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | ![]() | Inflation Report |
13/03/2025 | 0950/1050 | ![]() | de Guindos in fireside chat at EIOPA Sustainable Finance Conference | |
13/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Building Permits |
13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Household debt-to-income |
13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | PPI |