EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: US Recession Probability - US 3m/10yr Curve (BBG)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
UK
LABOUR MARKET (MNI): The KPMG-REC Report on Jobs for February continued to signal warning signs regarding the state of the UK labour market. Permanent salary growth posted its lowest seasonally-adjusted reading for four years according to the press release, with "weaker demand for staff, improved candidate numbers and tighter budgets" all cited as reasons. Hiring continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace than in January with the press release citing that "recruiters frequently commenting that redundancies had expanded the pool of available workers."
EU
DEFENCE(MNI): European Union finance ministers will discuss the possibility of extending the proposed four-year exemption for defence spending from the bloc’s fiscal rules to 10 years when they meet in Brussels on Tuesday morning, according to a Polish Presidency paper.
UKRAINE (BBG): “President Donald Trump said Volodymyr Zelenskiy will eventually make a natural-resources deal with the US, while accusing the Ukrainian president of “taking candy from a baby” in maximizing US military aid during the Biden years.”
GEOPOLITICS (BBG): “Billionaire Elon Musk threw his weight behind a US exit from NATO, saying on his social media platform that it “doesn’t make sense for America to pay for the defense of Europe.” The senior adviser to US President Donald Trump was responding to a post on X early Sunday that asserted the US should “Exit NATO *now*!”
US
ECONOMY (BBG): “ President Donald Trump said the US economy faces “a period of transition,” deflecting concerns about the risks of a slowdown as his early focus on tariffs and federal job cuts causes market turmoil. Asked on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures whether he’s expecting a recession this year, Trump said, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big.”
FED (MNI): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday the central bank can take its time before considering any further changes to interest rates as inflation is still above target and policy uncertainty out of Washington remains high. "We are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity," Powell told an annual monetary policy conference sponsored by Chicago Booth, according to prepared remarks.
FED (MNI BRIEF): San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday uncertainty surrounding the economy and economic policy is elevated and it is a reason to keep interest rates on hold.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said Friday she expects the impacts from new policies in Washington to raise prices before there is an impact on economic growth, underpinning her argument for a hold on interest rates for some time.
OTHER
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Mark Carney won the contest to become Canada’s next Liberal Party leader and replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister, and the former BOE and BOC governor will soon be thrust into negotiations with Donald Trump and an election where polls show he's erasing a deficit with the Conservatives.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of household purchasing power, declined 1.8% in January, following 0.3% growth in December and marking the first negative reading in three months, preliminary data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on Monday showed.
AUSTRALIA (MNI): The RBA's new board will thrash out its functions this month. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
CHINA
INFLATION (MNI BRIEF): China's Consumer Price Index fell 0.7% y/y in February, marking the first contraction in 13 months, following January's 0.5% growth and missing the expected -0.4%, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Sunday. The CPI rose by 0.1% y/y when accounting for this year’s Spring Festival disruption, which occurred earlier than in 2024.
LABOR (YICAI): “Authorities will support labour-intensive industries to stabilise employment during periods of transformation and upgrading, said Wang Xiaoping, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security.”
EXPORTS (YICAI): “China’s slowdown in export growth to 2.3% y/y during January and February could indicate the surge of previous months has declined, according to Yang Chang, chief analyst at Zhongtai Securities Research Institute.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY0.5 Bln via OMO Monday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY96.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY0.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY97 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1733 Mon; -0.60% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1733 on Monday, compared with 7.1705 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2408 by Bloomberg survey today.
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.85% In Week of Mar 7
The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 99.05 on Mar 7, down 0.85% compared with 99.90 as of Feb 28.
MARKET DATA
JAPAN JAN LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y 2.8%; MEDIAN 3.0%; PRIOR 4.4%
JAPAN JAN REAL CASH EARNINGS Y/Y -1.8%; MEDIAN 1.6%; PRIOR 0.3%
JAPAN JAN CASH EARNINGS - SAME SAMPLE BASE Y/Y 2.0%; MEDIAN 3.5%; PRIOR 5.3%
JAPAN JAN SCHEDULED FULL-TIME PAY - SAME BASE Y/Y 3.0%; MEDIAN 2.9%; PRIOR 2.8%
JAPAN JAN BOP CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTED ¥1937.5bn; MEDIAN ¥1987.1bn; PRIOR ¥2731.6bn
JAPAN JAN TRADE BALANCE BOP BASIS -¥2937.9bn; MEDIAN -¥2454.7bn; PRIOR ¥62.3bn
JAPAN FEB BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS Y/Y 3.1%; PRIOR 2.9%
JAPAN JAN P LEADING INDEX CI 108; MEDIAN 108.2; PRIOR 107.9
JAPAN JAN P COINCIDENT INDEX 116.2; MEDIAN 116.4; PRIOR 116.1
MARKETS
US TSYS: Cash Bonds Richer Across Benchmarks But Off Session Bests
TYM5 is 110-25+, +0-7+ from closing levels, but off the Asia-Pac session high of 111-00.
JGBS: Sharply Weaker After Poor 5Y Auction, Q4 GDP Tomorrow
JGB futures are sharply weaker, -41 compared to settlement levels, after today’s 5-year auction result. The market opened stronger after weaker-than-expected Labor Earnings but that as quickly reversed.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Modest Ranges, Cons & Bus Confidence Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -3.0) are cheaper and near the session’s worst levels on a data-light session.
BONDS: NZGBS: Modestly Richer, Middle Of Ranges, Light Local Calendar
NZGBs closed in the middle of the day’s ranges, with benchmark yields 1bp higher, on a local data light day.
FOREX: Recession Concerns Fuel Safe Haven Demand
The USD BBDXY index sits up from earlier lows, last near 1268.5. Earlier we got to 1265.28, as dollar sentiment was weighed by US growth/recession concerns. Safe havens JPY and CHF have been the outperformers, although sit away from best levels.
ASIA STOCKS: China’s Equity Markets Lower as Regional Markets Mixed.
Over the weekend, data out showed that the Chinese economy is mired in deflation with both the PPI and CPI now in negative territory. PPI has been stuck firmly negative for multiple years now, showing the challenges companies face after 29 consecutive months of decline. For CPI it was the first time it had fallen back into deflation in over a year.
Oil Markets Grasp With Deflation in China.
GOLD: Gold Prices Steady as Central Bank Buying Continues
Data out from China shows the PBOC added to its gold reserves in February, marking four straight months of a rise in their gold reserves.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
10/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | ![]() | CPI Norway |
10/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | Private Sector Production m/m |
10/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | Trade Balance |
10/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
10/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | PPI |
10/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | New Loans |
10/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Money Supply |
10/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Social Financing |
10/03/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** | ![]() | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
10/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
10/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
11/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | ![]() | Household spending |
11/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** | ![]() | GDP |
11/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | ![]() | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
11/03/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | ![]() | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
11/03/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | ![]() | Redbook Retail Sales Index |