EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: China Export & Imports - Y/Y

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
UK
POLITICS (BBG): “UK living standards are no higher than when Labour swept to power a year ago, highlighting the problems piling up for Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he struggles to contain the rise of Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK party.”
LABOUR MARKET (BBG): “Hiring by UK businesses plunged at the fastest pace in nearly two years, according to a survey that suggested that the fallout from a hike in payroll taxes is showing little sign of letting up.”
EU
UKRAINE (AXIOS): “President Trump will announce a new plan to arm Ukraine on Monday that is expected to include offensive weapons, two sources with knowledge of the plans tell Axios.”
TRADE (BBG): “The EU is preparing to step up its engagement with other countries hit by Donald Trump’s tariffs following a slew of new threats to the bloc and other US trading partners, according to people familiar with the matter.”
FRANCE (BBG): “President Emmanuel Macron said France will make a “new” and “historic” effort to increase defense spending to counter an acceleration of threats to freedom in Europe and the risk of outright war in the coming years.”
US
TARIFFS (RTRS): “President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal.”
FED (BBG): “President Donald Trump and his allies have seized upon a new way to criticize the head of the US central bank: his handling of an expensive renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters.”
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the central bank's mandate does not include setting interest rates with a consideration of how it affects fiscal spending, and added that new tariffs unveiled by President Trump have further muddied the economic outlook.
FISCAL (MNI BRIEF): The U.S. government posted a USD27 billion budget surplus for June, up USD98 billion from a year earlier, reflecting strong tax receipts and collections of import duties, the Treasury Department said Monday. The U.S. year-to-date deficit sits at USD1.337 trillion through nine months of the fiscal year, up 5% from the previous year.
OTHER
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson said Friday his country has leverage in trade talks with Donald Trump, rejecting the President's dismissal of any reliance on its northern neighbor for commodities the day after Trump set a revised Aug. 1 deadline for imposing 35% tariffs.
JAPAN (BBG): “Bank of Japan officials are likely to consider raising at least one of their inflation forecasts at a policy meeting later this month, after rice and food-related prices rose more than expected, according to people familiar with the matter.”
CHINA
TRADE (MNI BRIEF): China's first half exports increased 5.9% y/y, with imports narrowing to a 3.9% decline from the 7.0% drop in Q1, data released by China Customs showed on Monday. Exports in June reached USD325.1 billion, up 5.8% y/y, exceeding Mays 4.8% and the forecasted 5.2%. Imports rose 1.1% in June, the first positive change in four months and beating the market consensus of 0.5%.
TRADE (MNI BRIEF): China’s H1 imports reached CNY8.79 trillion, down 2.7% y/y, impacted by uncertainty in international trade policies and falling prices of bulk commodities, Wang Lingjun, deputy director at the General Administration of Customs, told reporters on Monday.
HOUSING (SECURITIES DAILY): “Local governments are expected to boost home sales by increasing mortgage loan quotas taken from housing provident funds and supporting fund account withdrawls to pay down payments, Securities Daily reported, citing Chen Wenjing, director of policy research at the China Index Academy”
PRICES (PEOPLE’S DAILY): “Engaging in price wars and “involution-style” competition only leads to “throwing good money after the bad”, with no true winner emerging from such rivalries, according to a front-page commentary published in the People’s Daily Monday.”
BONDS (SECURITIES TIMES): “The number of China’s bond exchange-traded funds has reached nearly 40, with their assets under management exceeding 400 billion yuan ($55.8 billion), according to a report by the Securities Times Monday.”
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY119.7 Bln via OMO Monday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY226.2 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY119.7 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY106.5 reverse repo today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1491 Mon; +1.20% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1491 on Monday, compared with 7.1475 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1772 by Bloomberg survey today.
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.30% In Week of Jul 11
The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 95.60 on Jul 11, up 0.30% compared with 95.30 as of Jul 4.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND JUNE PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX 47.3; PRIOR 44.1
NEW ZEALAND JUNE CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M 0.5%; PRIOR -0.1%
NEW ZEALAND JUNE CARD SPENDING TOTAL M/M -0.2%; PRIOR 0.3%
JAPAN MAY CORE MACHINE ORDERS M/M -0.6%; MEDIAN -1.5%; PRIOR -9.1%
JAPAN MAY CORE MACHINE ORDERS Y/Y 4.4%; MEDIAN 5.2%; PRIOR 6.6%
JAPAN MAY F INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y -2.4%; PRIOR -1.8%
JAPAN MAY CAPACITY UTILIZATION M/M 2.0%; PRIOR 1.3%
CHINA JUNE EXPORTS 5.8%; MEDIAN 5.0%; PRIOR 4.8%
CHINA JUNE IMPORTS 1.1%; MEIDAN 0.3%; PRIOR -3.4%
CHINA JUNE TRADE BALANCE $114.77bn; MEDIAN $112.10bn; PRIOR $103.22bn
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Quiet Session For US Bonds
The TYU5 range has been 110-24+ to 110-28 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-27, up 0-04 from the previous close.
Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JGBS: Bear-Steepening As Upper House Elections Approach
JGB futures are sharply weaker and hovering near session lows, -46 compared to settlement levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Cheaper, Narrow Ranges, Jun-54 Supply Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -2.0) sit weaker after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Near Cheaps, Bear-Steepener
NZGBs closed near the session’s worst level, showing a modest bear-steepener. Benchmark yields were flat to 3bps higher. The NZ-US 10-year yield differential closed 2bps tighter at +14bps.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - BBDXY Holding Around 1200
The BBDXY has had a range of 1198.51 - 1200.95 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1200, +0.05%. The BBDXY has once again found decent supply capping the 1200 area. Price action is interesting though in that the price is not violently moving lower from these bouts of strength as it did in the past. The price does look stretched and the market is short so a correction is not out of the question. Axios via (BBG) - Trump To Announce 'Aggressive' Ukraine Weapons Plan : Headlines have crossed from Axios that US President Trump will announce an 'aggressive' Ukraine weapons plan Monday. "President Trump will announce a new plan to arm Ukraine on Monday that is expected to include offensive weapons, two sources with knowledge of the plans tell Axios."
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap NZD/USD - Challenging Support Just Below 0.6000
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5981 - 0.6015 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5985, -0.40%. Risk is opening on the backfoot this morning as the world has to again digest Trump's next round of tariffs this time on Europe and Mexico, E-Mini -0.40%, NQ -0.40%. NZD/USD needs to hold this support just below 0.6000 to build for another test higher, the risk is the USD taking a leg higher. A break below this support and the market would look back towards the 0.5850/0.5900 area.
Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Moves Away From 0.6600 After A Soft Open For Risk
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6558 - 0.6588 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6565, -0.20%. CFTC Data does not show any real reduction in the AUD short positions, the price action at the end of last week suggested there might have been some paring back of these so it's interesting to see it has not had an impact yet. Risk is opened on the backfoot this morning as the world has to again digest Trump's next round of tariffs this time on Europe and Mexico. AUD/USD is being capped by decent supply towards 0.6000, price needs to clear this to gain momentum for a push higher until then it looks back to the range.
AUD/JPY - Today's range 96.46 - 96.93, it is trading currently around 96.75, -0.20%. The pair has had a good move above 96.00 and this time looks to be building real momentum to extend higher. The market has been caught wrong-footed in both legs of this pair and price action suggests a potential move back to 99.00/100.00. Dips back to 95.50/96.00 should now be supported.
Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap USD/JPY - Consolidating Above 147.00
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 146.86 - 147.57, Asia is currently trading around 147.30, -0.10%. The pair has traded sideways with little direction, the soft opening for risk saw some reprieve for JPY longs in the crosses. The USD/JPY relentless march higher has been pretty telling, challenging a market positioned the wrong way. Price is now consolidating some of those recent gains, dips back towards 145.00 should now find support first up. CFTC Data shows leveraged funds have pared back their JPY longs almost back to flat, Asset managers have pared back some of their position but still continue to run a decent sized long JPY position.
Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: Modest Gains Evident For Most Markets, Despite Negative US Futures
Asian stock markets have had a fairly indifferent start to the trading week, albeit with a positive bias for most markets. At this stage, aggregate moves are not much beyond 0.50% for the major regional bourses. US equity futures are down close to 0.40% at this stage. Weekend threats from US President Trump on a 30% tariff for the EU (as well as Mexico) has weighed on sentiment. EU futures are down around 0.60% at this stage. There appears to be room for negotiations but concrete deals might be difficult to achieve ahead of the August 1 deadline.
OIL: Little Reaction To Rumours Around Ukraine Weapons Plan
The Asia-Pac range for the CLQ5(WTI) contract was $68.41 - $68.95, it is currently trading around $68.50 in the Asia-Pac session. “In futures markets, oil rose a second day as President Donald Trump declared 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico over the weekend, ahead of a “major statement” on Russia.” - BBG
Fig 1: WTI Crude Future Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
GOLD: Steady Today After Friday Strong Gain
Gold is little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing ~1% higher at $3355.59 on Friday.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 14/07/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | Final Inflation Report | |
| 14/07/2025 | - | *** | Money Supply | |
| 14/07/2025 | - | *** | New Loans | |
| 14/07/2025 | - | *** | Social Financing | |
| 14/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Wholesale Trade | |
| 14/07/2025 | 1500/1700 | ECB Cipollone At EU Parliament | ||
| 14/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 14/07/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 15/07/2025 | 2301/0001 | * | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor | |
| 15/07/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | GDP | |
| 15/07/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | Fixed-Asset Investment | |
| 15/07/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 15/07/2025 | 0200/1000 | *** | Industrial Output | |
| 15/07/2025 | 0200/1000 | ** | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M | |
| 15/07/2025 | 0700/0900 | *** | HICP (f) | |
| 15/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 15/07/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | ZEW Current Expectations Index | |
| 15/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 15/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing | |
| 15/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | |
| 15/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 15/07/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 15/07/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 15/07/2025 | 1300/0900 | * | CREA Existing Home Sales | |
| 15/07/2025 | 1315/0915 | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman |