MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: Shanghai Home Curbs Eased, China Stocks Up

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• POWELL SIGNALS RATE CUT LOOMS CLOSER AS JOBS RISK RISE - MNI 
• POWELL LEANING TOWARD SEPTEMBER CUT - MNI INTERVIEW 
• TRUMP - WILL FIRE FED'S COOK IF SHE DOESN'T RESIGN - MNI BRIEF  
• SHANGHAI EASES HOME BUYING CURBS FROM AUG 26 - BBG
• NEW ZEALAND RETAIL SALES UNEXPECTEDLY RISE IN SIGN OF RECOVERY - BBG

Fig 1:  NZ Retail Sales Improved In Q2 

Source: MNI - Market News/LSEG
 

EU

TRADE (BBG): “European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended the bloc’s trade deal with the US, arguing that it brings stability and avoids escalating tensions with a key ally.” 

TRADE (EURACTIV): “Irish pharmaceutical exporters are cautious about the new EU-US trade framework, which offers at least temporary relief from escalating tariffs. Industry leaders want the Irish government to seek more competitive terms.”

ECB (POLITICO): “Speaking at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Wyoming, Lagarde said an influx of foreign labor helped the eurozone absorb successive shocks like soaring energy costs and record inflation, while keeping growth and jobs intact.”

ECB (POLITICO): “Internal ECB documents show the bank wants the digital euro system to be able to handle more than 50 billion transactions a year from the get-go, central bank officials told POLITICO.”

UKRAINE (POLITICO): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday that security guarantees for Ukraine will be ready “in the coming days,” following intensified efforts to end Russia’s war on his country.”

UKRAINE (BBC): “President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would continue to fight for its freedom "while its calls for peace are not heard," in a defiant address to the nation on its independence day.”

UKRAINE (BBC): “Ukraine's President Volodymr Zelensky has accused Russia of "doing everything it can" to prevent a meeting with Vladimir Putin to try to end the war.”

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (RTRS): “Ukraine launched a drone attack on Russia on Sunday, forcing a sharp fall in the capacity of a reactor at one of Russia's biggest nuclear power plants and sparking a huge blaze at the major Ust-Luga fuel export terminal, Russian officials said.”

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (KYIV IND): “Drones struck a gas terminal in Russia's Leningrad region and an oil refinery in Samara region on Aug. 24, the Russian Telegram news channel Astra reported, citing local reports and footage of the attacks.”

FINANCE (POLITICO): “José Manuel Campa, chair of the Paris-based European Banking Authority, said he “would like to see more transactions that have a cross-border nature in their economic logic,” but that “we don't see enough” now. “I feel frustrated because I continue to see domestic mergers with a domestic logic, not single-market mergers,” Campa told POLITICO in an interview.”

GERMANY (DW): “German Chancellor Merz has called for a reform of Germany's social welfare spending while ruling out tax increases on medium-sized companies. The comments, made at a state-level party conference of his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Lower Saxony on Saturday, will likely be seen as paving the way for further contention with his government coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD).”

GERMANY/CANADA (POLITICO): ““There’s a broad range of areas, from critical minerals to energy and defense and security, where we are intensifying our discussions with Germany,” Carney told reporters Friday on Parliament Hill.”

FRANCE (POLITICO): “In a statement published late Sunday, the French foreign ministry said it had summoned Kushner, the father of U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, to appear on Monday over what it called “unacceptable” allegations that “violate international law, particularly the duty not to interfere in the internal affairs of states.””

ITALY (BBG): “ Italy’s deputy prime minister said he’s against imposing windfall taxes on banks, a topic that’s been a divisive issue for the government led by Giorgia Meloni.” 

US

FED (MNI): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled Friday interest rates cuts are nearing, warning that downside risks to the labor market are rising while the tariffs-driven uptick in inflation looks likely to be a one-time adjustment.

FED (MNI BRIEF): President Donald Trump said Friday he will fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook if she does not resign from her position.

FED (MNI INTERVIEW): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested he's leaning toward resuming interest rate cuts at the September meeting, but he's hedging his bets on data and issuing a warning that the Fed won't be pushed around by political pressure, former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder told MNI.

FED (MNI): The Federal Reserve would be taking a major risk to its credibility if it decided to "look through" price changes seen as temporary because they were caused by supply change disruptions, especially with the memory of recent high inflation still fresh in the minds of Americans, according to research presented Saturday to the Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole.

DEBT (MNI): The supply of U.S. debt over the next 75 years will eventually outstrip demand and force interest rates higher, though large fiscal adjustments could allow debt-to-GDP levels to increase sharply over time without pushing up interest rates, according to research presented Saturday to the Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole.

RUSSIA (POLITICO): “U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday renewed his threat to impose sanctions on Russia unless progress is made to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, as tensions between Moscow and Washington escalated.”

RUSSIA (POLITICO): “During an English-language interview that aired Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denied that Russia has erred in striking civilian targets in Ukraine, including hospitals, schools and American-owned factories that purport to build electronics for personal consumption.”

OTHER

MIDDLE EAST (RTRS): “Israeli strikes hit the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Sunday in retaliation for Houthi missiles fired towards Israel, with a Houthi health official saying the attack killed six people and wounded 86.” 

NEW ZEALAND (BBG): "New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said he personally agrees that the Reserve Bank should have cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points last week." 

NEW ZEALAND (BBG): "New Zealand retail sales unexpectedly increased in the second quarter, suggesting that lower interest rates are starting to support household spending and underpin an economic recovery." 

JAPAN (BBG): "Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s approval ratings surged in local media polls ahead of a verdict on last month’s election performance that could determine his future as leader. " 

CHINA 

FISCAL (SECURITIES TIMES): “ China’s recent moves to curb excessive competition has helped boost fiscal income, and by optimizing the business environment and nurturing sustainable tax sources, they will fundamentally benefit the health and stability of fiscal revenue, Securities Times reports, citing analysts.” 

PROPERTY (SECURITIES TIMES): “Chinese authorities may issue more policies to speed up urban renovation work in September to support slumping property market, the Securities Daily reported, citing an industry expert.” 

CONSUMPTION (CSJ): “China may enhance its financial support for the consumer goods trade-in policy and expand its scope to boost domestic consumption, China Securities Journal reports, citing analysts.” 

PROPERTY (BBG): "Shanghai will no longer restrict the number of homes that eligible residents, including those from outside Shanghai, can purchase in outer suburbs, the city’s government says in a statement." 

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY21.9 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY288.4 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY21.9 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY266.5 billion today, according to Wind Information. 

• The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4273% at 09:30 am local time from the close of 1.4669% on Friday.
• The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 49 on Friday, compared with the close of 47 on Thursday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1161 Mon; -0.98% Y/Y

MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1161 on Monday, compared with 7.1321 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1527 by Bloomberg survey today.

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.40% In Week of Aug 22

The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 96.57 on Aug 22, up 0.40% compared with 96.17 as of Aug 15.

MARKET DATA

NEW ZEALAND Q2 RETAIL SALES EX. INFLATION +0.5% Q/Q; EST. -0.3%; Q1 +0.8%

MARKETS

US TSYS: Yields Retrace Some Of Fridays Move

The TYU5 range has been 112-01 to 112-05 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 112-01+, down 0-03 from the previous close. 

• The US 2-year yield has edged higher trading around 3.715%, up 0.02 from its close.
• The US 10-year yield has retraced higher trading around 4.27%, up 0.02 from its close.
• 10-Year Yields held its 4.35% pivot area perfectly and Powell gave the market a reason to add to longs helping yields move lower. While this area continues to hold, bounces should be met with demand. First target the recent lows around 4.18% then the bottom of the range towards 4.10% comes back into focus.
• RenMac on X: “This is about September. If you get solid data, you’ll get a hawkish cut in September. If you get bad data, you’ll get a dovish cut. That’s how to think about this. Through the lens of an insurance cut being green lit in September. Importantly, Powell is accepting the Waller framing of the world. We had a shadow chair already. Time to give him the job.”
• MNI: US Debt-To-GDP At 250% May Not Push Up Rates - JH Paper. The supply of U.S. debt over the next 75 years will eventually outstrip demand and force interest rates higher, though large fiscal adjustments could allow debt-to-GDP levels to increase sharply over time without pushing up interest rates, according to research presented Saturday to the Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
• MNI BRIEF: Trump - Will Fire Fed's Cook If She Doesn't Resign. President Donald Trump said Friday he will fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook if she does not resign from her position. “I’ll fire her if she doesn’t resign,” Trump told reporters at the Kennedy Center. “What she did was bad, so I’ll fire her if she doesn’t resign,” he said.
• Data/Events: Building Permits, New Home Sales, Dallas Fed Manf. Activity

Fig 1: 10-Year US Yield 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JGBS: Slightly Richer, Gov. Ueda's Wage Comments In Focus

JGB futures are little changed, -1 compared to settlement levels, after giving up Friday's overnight gains.

• (Bloomberg) Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he expects a tight labour market to keep upward pressure on wages, reflecting his view that stable inflation is set to take hold.
• "Wage growth is spreading from large enterprises to small and medium enterprises," Ueda said Saturday in remarks at the Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "Barring a major negative demand shock, the labour market is expected to remain tight and continue to exert upward pressure on wages."
• Joseph Wang on X: "Good speech by Ueda on how Japan's ageing demographics are driving up wages. Increasing participation rates and retiring at a later age have reached their limits. It looks like the theory that ageing demographics is inflationary will be validated. https://t.co/YyW7JcMySw"
• Cash US tsys are ~2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's strong rally.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 1bp richer across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.8bp lower at 1.617% versus the cycle high of 1.627%, set last week.
• Swap rates are ~2bps higher. Swap spreads are wider.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see PPI Services alongside an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 15.5-39 YR.

AUSSIE BONDS: Richer, Analysts Split On RBA Rates Outlook

ACGBs (YM +3.5 & XM +3.5) are stronger.

• Cash US tsys are ~2bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's strong rally.
• Cash ACGBs are 3-4bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +1bp.
• Bloomberg's updated consensus forecasts show that the RBA is widely expected to be on hold in September and that there will be one final cut for the year in Q4, likely November as that coincides with the RBA's revised outlook. Forecasters are split over 2026 though and where rates will trough with most projecting either 3.35% with no moves in 2026 or 3.1% with one last cut early next year. One of the main outliers is Westpac, which expects another rate cut in Q2 2026 with the cash rate then stabilising at 2.85%. AMP is forecasting the same path.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +4.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in September is given a 29% probability, with a cumulative 36bps of easing priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the RBA Minutes.
• This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$1000mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond on Friday.

BONDS: NZGBS: Closed With A Modest Bull-Steepener, But Off Bests

NZGBs closed showing a modest bull-steepener, with benchmark yields 1-3bps lower, after opening 5-6bps richer following the strong Friday for US tsys.

• Cash US tsys are ~2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session.
• NZGBs underperformed their $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield spreads 5bps and 3bps wider, respectively, on the day.
• Swap rates closed 2-3bps higher.
• (Bloomberg) “NZ Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said he personally agrees that the Reserve Bank should have cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points last week.
• Luxon said he routinely meets with RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby before rate decisions to discuss how the economy is performing and that he suggested the bank should be more aggressive. Luxon emphasized that the Reserve Bank's independence is "sacrosanct" and that his conversations with RBNZ officials are constructive and do not involve directing the bank.”
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed slightly softer across meetings. 19bps of easing is priced for October, with a cumulative 36bps by November 2025.
• The local calendar will be empty tomorrow and Wednesday, ahead of Filled Jobs and ANZ Business Confidence on Thursday.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond and NZ$200mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond.

FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - BBDXY(USD) Looking To Test Below 1200 Again

The BBDXY has had a range of 1201.36 - 1203.53 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1202, +0.05%. The USD collapsed with US yields as the market interpreted Powell to be surprisingly dovish. ‘Up the stairs and down the elevator’ would be an accurate way to describe price action in the USD with the market being dragged kicking and screaming to reduce its shorts into the event but is very quick to reinstate USD shorts when it perceived very little hawkish push back. A sustained break below 1197/1195 is needed to regain the momentum lower and retest the year's lows. There are some who do not see Powell’s speech to be as dovish, price action over the next couple of days will determine who is right.

• EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1694 - 1.1724, Asia is currently trading 1.1705. The market is attempting to regain its upward momentum after Jackson Hole. The pair needs to sustain a break back above 1.1800/1.1850 to start another leg higher.
• GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3391 - 1.3544, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3515. The pair found solid demand towards its support around 1.3400 and has bounced nicely from there with the help of Powell. Back in the middle of its recent 1.3350-1.3650 range, the USD’s fate will have a direct impact on which side is tested.
• USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1572-7.1743, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1161, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1590. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2200/2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2500 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
• Cross asset : SPX -0.05%, Gold $3366, US 10-Year 4.27%, BBDXY 1202, Crude Oil $63.79
• Data/Events : Germany IFO

Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Bounces As Support Holds For Now

The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 146.80-147.53, Asia is currently trading around 147.30, +0.25%. USD/JPY collapsed lower with US yields on Friday as the markets initial interpretation of Powell’s speech was taken to be quite dovish. Was it that dovish ? That remains to be seen but the price action was again clear, the market is still very quick to sell USD’s. Price was very quickly back to testing its recent support towards 146.00, the demand has been pretty solid back towards here all of August, lets see if it can continue to hold. A sustained break below here would see short-term direction turn lower again. CFTC data shows leveraged accounts again added to JPY shorts so this reaction to Powell would have been unwelcome and a break sub 145/146 would add pressure.

• (Bloomberg) -- “Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he expects a tight labor market to keep upward pressure on wages, reflecting his view that stable inflation is set to take hold. “Wage growth is spreading from large enterprises to small and medium enterprises,” Ueda said Saturday. https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/T1GSQIGP9VCY”
• "JAPAN CABINET APPROVAL RATING SURGES 17PPTS TO 39%:YOMIURI POLL" - BBG
• "JAPAN ISHIBA CABINET APPROVAL RISES 4.2 PPTS TO 38.8%: FNN POLL" - BBG
• Joseph Wang on X: “Good speech by Ueda on how Japan's aging demographics are driving up wages. Increasing participation rates and retiring at a later age have reached their limits. It looks like the theory that aging demographics is inflationary will be validated. https://t.co/YyW7JcMySw”
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 147.90($1.59b).Upcoming Close Strikes : 148.00($912m Aug 26), 147.95($885m Aug 27),  - BBG.
• CFTC data shows last week asset managers have begun to add to their JPY longs after a consistent period of reduction +71379( Last +60866), leveraged funds though again used the dip to add to their newly built short JPY position -50848(Last -41257).

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot 2H Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

AUD: Asia Wrap - AUD/USD Consolidates After A Decent Friday Bounce

The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6472 - 0.6495 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6490, -0.02%. US equities roared higher and the USD reverted back to type and got hammered lower on the market's interpretation that Powell’s speech was dovish. I have read some differing views and not sure the speech was as clear cut as the market would like it to be, as we know the market is clearly more comfortable selling USD’s but lets see if this move can follow through the first couple of days this week. The AUD found some solid demand towards 0.6400 and has bounced back into the middle of its recent multi-month range of 0.6350-0.6650.

• Analysts Split Over Where Cash Rate Expected To Trough: Bloomberg’s updated consensus forecasts show that the RBA is widely expected to be on hold in September and that there will be one final cut for the year in Q4, likely November as that coincides with the RBA’s revised outlook. The survey was taken over August 14-19, after the last RBA decision and updated forecast release. Forecasters are split over 2026 though and where rates will trough with most projecting either 3.35% with no moves in 2026 or 3.1% with one last cut early next year.
• One of the main outliers is Westpac, which expects another rate cut in Q2 2026 with the cash rate then stabilising at 2.85%. AMP is forecasting the same path.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6400(AUD621m), 0.6510(AUD520m), 0.6465(AUD349m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6400(AUD621m Aug 26) - BBG
• CFTC Data last week shows Asset managers continue to add to their shorts -72904(Last -67449), the Leveraged community though again reduced their own shorts -7818(Last -10121).
• AUD/JPY - Asia-Pac range 95.31 - 95.63, Asia is trading around 95.55. The pair found some demand around 94.50 last week and has bounced from there, sellers should be around back towards 96.00 initially. This pair’s direction will be determined by the market's ability to follow on with this risk-on move or not.

Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Bounces Off 0.5800 As USD Collapses

The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5852 - 0.5871 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5860, -0.10%. US equities roared higher and the USD reverted back to type and got hammered lower on the market's interpretation that Powell’s speech was dovish. I have read some differing views and not sure the speech was as clear cut as the market would like it to be, as we know the market is clearly more comfortable selling USD’s but lets see if this move can follow through this week. The NZD has bounced off its support around 0.5800 but I would still expect sellers to be lining up to fade any move back towards 0.5900/0.5950 initially. US Futures have traded slightly lower this morning, E-minis -0.10%, NQU5 -0.10%. CFTC Data is at odds with the price action after a dovish surprise last week from the RBNZ.

• Sales Volumes Supported By Lower Retail Prices: Q2 real retail sales were a lot stronger than expected rising 0.5% q/q after 0.8%. This was the fourth consecutive non-negative quarter bringing annual growth to 2.3% y/y from 0.7% and the sector now appears to be recovering. There will be manufacturing, trade and building volumes released before GDP prints on September 18.
• Westpac Expects Spending To Rise As Cuts Feed Through: Westpac notes that while conditions for the sector remain tough, there are signs of a “long-awaited recovery”. Westpac is currently forecasting a flat Q2 GDP print on September 18 but will review its forecast after other quarterly data releases. Westpac is optimistic regarding the consumption outlook noting that “spending levels are already pushing higher, and the full impact of the large reductions in interest rates over the past year is yet to be felt”.
• Bloomberg - “New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon told local media he personally agrees the RBNZ should have cut rates by 50 bps last week instead of 25 bps.”
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data:  none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6200(NZD355m Aug 27) - BBG
• CFTC Data of last week shows Asset Managers slightly reduced their new short position in the NZD -3198(Last -3679), the Leveraged community also reduced their own shorts slightly -4004(Last -4190).

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

ASIA STOCKS: China Rallies As Shanghai Housing Curbs Eased, Japan Lags

Asian equity markets are mostly up in the first part of Monday trade, with tech related indices outperforming. China property stocks are also up strongly. The main exception is Japan markets, which are closer to flat. US equity futures are down slightly in latest dealings, after strong cash gains following Powell's dovish rhetoric on Friday at Jackson Hole. Key offshore event risks this week are US inflation data and earnings from tech bellwether Nvidia. 

• Japan markets are a touch higher, with the NKY 225 up around 0.25%, while the Topix is marginally higher. USD/JPY is up slightly today, after falling nearly 1% on Friday, so this may be trimming risk appetite at the margin today. The transportation sub index for the Topix has fallen by 0.46% so far today.
• In Hong Kong the HSI is up over 2%, while the HSTECH sub index is up over 3%. The CSI 300 on the mainland is up close to 1.4%.  Onshore analysts expect further support for consumers via the trade-in policy (per CSJ), while headlines have also just crossed of easing Shanghai home buying curbs. Details so far point to buying limits being lifted in outer suburbs, while some households will be exempt from the first home property tax (via BBG). The CSI 300 real estate sub index has surged so far today, up close to 5.8%, putting the index at multi month highs.
• Taiwan's Taiex is up close to 2.5% after strong offshore selling last week weighed on the local bourse. The Kospi is up over 1% at this stage.
• In South East Asia, gains are a little more muted, although Indonesia is doing well, up over 1%. Thailand shares are +0.70%, but gains elsewhere are more modest.
• Australia's ASX 200 is up over 0.40%, last above 9000, which fresh record highs.  

OIL: Crude Continues To Find Support From Fed Easing Expectations

Oil prices continued gradually moving higher during today’s APAC trading but remain in a narrow range. WTI fell to $63.53/bbl and then recovered to $63.89. It is now up 0.2% to $63.78. Brent is 0.2% higher at $67.86/bbl after a low of $67.57 followed by a high of $67.91. The USD index is up slightly.

• The US OIS market now has around an 88% chance of a 25bp rate cut on September 17 priced in and about 50% of another in October. Improved easing prospects should support oil as it improves the demand outlook. The market will watch upcoming key data to gauge where the economy is and especially any feed through of increased tariffs on US inflation.
• July PCE prices this Friday, August ISM next Tuesday and August payrolls Friday 5 September are key upcoming releases.
• Trump has again threatened Russia with “massive sanctions or massive tariffs or both” if an agreement isn’t reached in two weeks but a decision would be made then whether to take these steps or admit “it’s your fight” and do nothing. Punitive tariffs on consumers of Russian crude are the main market worry. India could still face an additional 25% US duty.
• The Fed’s Logan and Williams speak later. July Chicago Fed index and August Dallas Fed manufacturing print as well as some July US housing data and Germany’s August Ifo survey. The UK is closed for a holiday.

Gold Holds Onto Most Of Friday’s Gains Following Powell’s Comments

After rising strongly on Friday following suggestions the Fed may ease, gold prices have traded in a narrow range today. They reached $3371.31 early in today’s APAC session but then fell to $3359.87 and are currently down 0.2% to $3365.3/oz. Pressure is coming from a 0.1% rise in the BBDXY USD index and slightly higher Treasury yields.

• Fed Chair Powell said on Friday “with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”. The US OIS market now has around an 88% chance of a 25bp rate cut on September 17 priced in and about 50% of another in October. Monetary easing is supportive of non-interest bearing gold.
• Silver rose to $39.001 earlier before falling to $38.764 and is currently down 0.2% to $38.82.
• Equities are rallying in APAC with the Hang Seng up 2.1% and ASX +0.3%, while the S&P e-mini is 0.1% lower. Oil prices are up with WTI +0.2% to $63.81/bbl. Copper is 0.3% higher.
• The Fed’s Logan and Williams speak later. July Chicago Fed index and August Dallas Fed manufacturing print as well as some July US housing data and Germany’s August Ifo survey. 

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL) 

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
25/08/2025	0700/0900	**	ES	PPI
25/08/2025	0800/1000	***	DE	IFO Business Climate Index
25/08/2025	1230/0830	*	CA	Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises
25/08/2025	1300/1500	**	BE	BNB Business Confidence
25/08/2025	1400/1000	***	US	New Home Sales
25/08/2025	1400/1000	***	US	New Home Sales
25/08/2025	1430/1030	**	US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
25/08/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
25/08/2025	1530/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
25/08/2025	1915/1515		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
26/08/2025	2301/0001	*	GB	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
25/08/2025	2315/1915		US	New York Fed's John Williams
26/08/2025	0600/0800	**	SE	PPI
26/08/2025	0645/0845	**	FR	Consumer Sentiment
26/08/2025	-		GB	DMO to hold FQ3 consultations with investors / GEMMs
26/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Durable Goods New Orders
26/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
26/08/2025	1230/0830	**	US	Durable Goods New Orders
26/08/2025	1255/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
26/08/2025	1300/0900	**	US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
26/08/2025	1300/0900	**	US	FHFA Home Price Index
26/08/2025	1300/0900	**	US	FHFA Home Price Index
26/08/2025	1300/0900	**	US	FHFA Quarterly Price Index
26/08/2025	1300/0900	**	US	FHFA Quarterly Price Index