EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: NZD/USD & 2yr Swap Rate

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P/MNI
UK
WAGES (BBG): "- Wage growth for the lowest-paid workers is starting to slow as a worsening jobs market undercuts the bargaining power of a section of the workforce that has proved resistant to the Bank of England’s inflation-fighting efforts, new data shows."
EU
UKRAINE (BBG): "President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled that Ukraine could accept security guarantees from the US and Europe as a way to prevent future Russian aggression, and substitute for its long-term goal of joining NATO. "
NETHERLANDS (MNI INTERVIEW): The Netherlands' 2026 total funding need is about EUR7 billion higher than this year and as part of the issuance programme the Dutch State Treasury Agency will issue a new 5-year bond due in 2031 and a 10-year bond due in 2036, agency director Saskia van Dun told MNI ahead of the publication of the country's 2026 funding outlook on Friday.
US
FED (BBG): "- National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett said he’d consider President Donald Trump’s policy opinions if picked to lead the Federal Reserve, but that the central bank’s interest rate decisions would remain independent."
MIDDLE EAST (BBG): "President Donald Trump signaled Sunday the US will do “big damage” to the militants behind a deadly attack on American forces in Syria that he blamed on the Islamic State."
FED (MNI BRIEF): San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly on Friday said she favored cutting interest rates at this week’s monetary policy meeting, noting that holding policy too tight can cause undue harm to American families with a weaker labor market.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Strong U.S. productivity growth has allowed workers' wages to rise without generating inflation, but policymakers cannot count on continued gains in order to lower rates, and doing so could risk fueling asset bubbles, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday.
JAPAN
TANKAN (MNI): Japanese benchmark business sentiment rose slightly from three months earlier for a third consecutive quarter, while sentiment among major non-manufacturers was unchanged, the Bank of Japan’s December Tankan business sentiment survey released Monday showed.
TANKAN (MNI): Inflation expectations of one, three and five years ahead at Japanese firms that Bank of Japan officials closely monitor were largely unchanged from September and remained solid, supporting the bank’s inflation outlook, the BOJ’s December Tankan survey released Monday showed.
BOJ (MNI BRIEF): Japanese wage growth in fiscal 2026 is expected to remain solid, supported by high corporate profits and persistent labour shortages, according to a Bank of Japan survey released Monday.
BOJ (BBG): "Bank of Japan officials are likely to start selling the central bank’s pile of exchange-traded funds as early as next month, according to people familiar with the matter, a process expected to take decades to complete."
OTHER
CHILE (BBG): “Ultra-conservative José Antonio Kast was decisively elected Chile’s president Sunday, driven by growing fears of crime and uncontrolled migration — making it the latest Latin America nation to take a hard turn to the right.”
NEW ZEALAND (BBG): "Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman has pushed back against investor bets on an interest-rate hike next year, saying she expects the Official Cash Rate will remain unchanged for some time. The kiwi dollar fell."
CHINA
GROWTH (BBG): "Chinese President Xi Jinping lashed out at inflated growth numbers and vowed to crack down on the pursuit of “reckless” projects that have no purpose except showing superficial results."
CONSUMPTION (MNI BRIEF): Authorities need to continue implementing special actions to boost consumption, focus on stabilising employment and increasing incomes, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters on Monday, after data released earlier in the morning showed retail sales growth had slowed to 1.3% y/y in December.
INVESTMENT (NOV): China’s fixed-asset investment growth fell further by 2.6% y/y in the first 11 months, expanding from the 1.7% fall in the Jan-Oct period and missing the -2.3% median forecast, also hitting the lowest level since Jun 2020, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Monday.
SERVICES (NDRC): “China will accelerate the relaxation of restrictions on services demand and implement policies aimed at stimulating consumption in key sectors such as sports events, e-commerce and AI-driven activites, according to Xiao Weiming, vice secretary-general at the National Development and Reform Commission.”
POLICY (CEWC): “The introduction of the term "cross-cycle" in the latest Central Economic Work Conference signals a strategic shift in macroeconomic policy, according to Guan Tao, former senior official at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.”
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY8.6 Bln via OMO Monday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY130.9 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY8.6 billion after offsetting maturities of CNY122.3 billion today, according to Wind Information
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0656 Mon; +3.45% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.0656 on Monday, compared with 7.0638 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.0555 by Bloomberg survey today.
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.06% In Week of Dec 12
The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 97.71 on Dec 12, up 0.06% from 97.65on Dec 5.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND NOV PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX 46.9; PRIOR 48.4
JAPAN 4Q TAKAN LARGE MFG INDEX 15; MEDIAN 15; PRIOR 14
JAPAN 4Q TAKAN LARGE MFG OUTLOOK 15; MEDIAN 13; PRIOR 12
JAPAN 4Q TAKAN LARGE NON-MFG INDEX 34; MEDIAN 35; PRIOR 34
JAPAN 4Q TAKAN LARGE NON-MFG OUTLOOK 28; MEDIAN 28; PRIOR 28
JAPAN 4Q TANKAN ALL INDUSTRY CAPEX ESTIMATE FY 12.6%; MEDIAN 12.1%; PRIOR 12.5%
JAPAN 4Q TANKAN SMALL MFG INDEX 6; MEDIAN 2; PRIOR 1
JAPAN 4Q TANKAN SMALL MFG OUTLOOK 2; MEDIAN -1; PRIOR -1
JAPAN 4Q TANKAN SMALL NON-MFG INDEX 15; MEDIAN 15; PRIOR 14
JAPAN 4Q TANKAN SMALL NON-MFG OUTLOOK 10; MEDIAN 9; PRIOR 10
JAPAN OCT TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M 0.9%; MEDIAN 0.2%; PRIOR 0.1%
CHINA NOV NEW HOME PRICES M/M -0.39%; PRIOR -0.45%
CHINA NOV USED HOME PRICES M/M -0.66%; PRIOR -0.66%
CHINA NOV RETAIL SALES Y/Y 1.3%; MEDIAN 2.9%; PRIOR 2.9%
CHINA NOV IP Y/Y 4.8%; MEDIAN 5.0%; PRIOR 4.9%
CHINA NOV FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT YTD Y/Y -2.6%; MEDIAN -2.3%; PRIOR 1.7%
CHINA NOV PROPERTY INVESTMENT YTD Y/Y -15.9%; MEDIAN 15.4%; PRIOR -14.7%
CHINA NOV RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES YTD Y/Y -11.2%; PRIOR -9.4%
CHINA NOV SURVEYED JOBLESS RATE 5.1%; MEDIAN 5.1%; PRIOR 5.1%
UK DEC RIGTHMOVE HOUSE PRICES Y/Y -0.6%; PRIOR -0.5%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Yields Grind Lower on Equity Weakness
US bond futures continued to add gains in the afternoon session with the 10-Yr up +04 to 112-09+. TYH6 is at the mid-point of the 100-day EMA of 112-14 and the 200-day EMA of 111-30 and will look to the array of data out over the coming days for the catalyst for the next move.
Cash was strong with the front end leading the rally as yields across the curve fell by up to -1.4bps.
Other than equity market weakness, tonight markets will focus on Empire Manufacturing (exp 10.0 vs prior 18.7), preliminary PMIs for December, November CPI but the key event later in the week Non Farm Payrolls for November.
Tonight sees a US$86bn 13-week bill and a US$77bn 26-week bill auction.
JGBS: Mixed Performance To Start BOJ Decision Week, Hike 95% Priced
JGB futures are unchanged compared to settlement levels after a relatively subdued session.
Figure 1: BOJ-Dated OIS

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
AUSSIE BONDS: AU-US 10Y Consolidates Range Break, Looks Fairly Priced
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM flat) are slightly stronger after a relatively subdued start to the week.
Figure 1: AU-US Cash 10-Year Yield Differential (%)

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
BONDS: NZGBS: Strong Rally As RBNZ Gov Pushes Back Vs Hike Expns
NZGBs closed showing a bull-steepener, with yields 5-9bps lower, after the market viewed comments from RBNZ Governor Anna Breman as a warning that market pricing was too hawkish.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Current vs. Prior (%)

Bloomberg Finance LP
FOREX: USD - BBDXY Struggles to Bounce, Is It Lagging ?
The BBDXY has had a range today of 1206.24 - 1207.71 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1206, -0.05%. The USD has failed to react to a weak close in US stocks or US yields in the long-end moving higher. Is it lagging or correctly seeing the moves as unconvincing that probably won’t follow through, or could it also be pricing in the potential Supreme Court decision that some believe is imminent. On the day look for initial resistance again back towards the 1208-1209 area and above here the more important 1212-1214 area where sellers should remerge. Support is in the 1204/05 area; a move below here would target 1198-1200.
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: USD/JPY - Slides Lower After Stalling Around 156.00 Again
The USD/JPY range today has been 155.30 - 155.99 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 155.35, -0.30%. The pair saw demand into the Japanese fix but topped out toward 156.00 and quickly turned lower trading heavily thereafter for most of the session. A poor close for risk to end the week, how it starts this week will be important for cross-Yen. The market is pricing in a hike by the BOJ for this week but US yields in the long-end are still under pressure. For the time being this is keeping the JPY confined to a wider 154.50-157.00 range. Technically USD/JPY is in an uptrend, the first big support is back toward the 152.50-154.50 area. In today's Asian session, the resistance back toward the 156.00-156.30 area capped price so look for a retest of the 155.00 area at some point a break of which would then turn the focus toward 154.40.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
AUD/USD - Holds Up Around 0.6650 For Now
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6638 - 0.6655 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6645, -0.05%. The AUD continues to consolidate around the 0.6650 area. The US stock market wobbled on Friday as AI concerns came back to the fore and US yields in the long end tick back up. This saw the USD’s decline stall but it has not bounced, yet. The AUD price action remains very constructive but the way risk starts the week will have important implications for its direction. While the AUD remains above 0.6500-0.6550 I suspect dips should continue to be supported. On the day, I will be watching how risk opens the week and whether the 0.6600-0.6630 will continue to find demand. If this area does not hold it could signal a deeper pullback toward the 0.6550 area.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD/USD - Fails Above 0.5800, Support seen 0.5730-50 Initially
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5766-0.5814 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5766, -0.70%. The NZD has slid lower in our day aided by comments from the RBNZ Governor. The US stock market wobbled on Friday as AI concerns came back to the fore and US yields in the long end tick back up. This saw the USD’s decline stall but it has not bounced, yet. The NZD’s momentum higher looks to have stalled above 0.5800 for now. On the day, price has broken below the 0.5780 area, signaling a potential retracement to the more important 0.5730/0.5750 support. I have this area between 0.5800-0.5900 as being decent longer-term resistance and it has provided some early headwinds on its first attempt.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA STOCKS: US Lead Weight on Asia Stocks, China's Property Sector in Focus
The woes in China's property sector was on full show today as the November data dump saw lower prices, lower property sector investment and lower sales. This comes on the back of China Vanke's failed bid to secure enough support from bondholders for its proposal to extend the repayment of a bond due mid-December. The extension plan needed ~90% approval but fell far short, with many holders voting against it.
In Japan markets await the BOJ decision this week with expectations they will raise rates, counter to global trends in interest rates. Markets expect the BOJ to raise rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at their meeting on December 19 and when combined with the lead in from global equities, it weighed heavy on Japan's stocks today. India's stocks are opening with a cautious tone following the global lead in and caution ahead of the wholesale price data release later. Wholesale prices fell by their most since July 2023 in October and whilst they are expected to see an improvement, are also expected to remain negative.
Tech stocks are down -1.5% -3.00% across the region as equity volatility brings into questioning their valuations, given the rally since April.
| CHINA PROPERTY STOCKS | Today's Move |
| Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co Ltd | -1.40% |
| China Vanke Co Ltd | -4.00% |
| Greenland Holdings Corp Ltd | -0.60% |
| China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co Ltd | -0.22% |
| Sunac China Holdings | -1.50% |
Oil Edges up Monday Off Near Term Lows

UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 15/12/2025 | 1000/0500 | * | CREA Existing Home Sales | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EZ Industrial Production | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1315/0815 | ** | CMHC Housing Starts | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1430/0930 | Fed Governor Stephen Miran | ||
| 15/12/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | NAHB Home Builder Index | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1530/1030 | New York Fed's John Williams | ||
| 15/12/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 15/12/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 16/12/2025 | 2200/0900 | *** | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Labour Market - AWE & Unemployment | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | Labour Market - Payrolls & Claimants | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Italy Final HICP | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | S&P Global Services PMI flash | |
| 16/12/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | S&P Global Composite PMI flash | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | * | Trade Balance | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | ZEW Current Expectations Index | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1000/1100 | Foreign Trade | ||
| 16/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Employment Report | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 16/12/2025 | 1355/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index |