EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: China May Activity Saw Retail Sales Accelerate Y/Y

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
UK
POLITICS (BBC): “Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the government will do "everything in [its] power" to protect people in the UK from the knock-on economic effects of the conflict between Iran and Israel.”
TRADE (POLITICO): “The U.K. government has delayed the timeline for gaining exemptions from U.S. tariffs on British steel and cars. Trade Secretary Reynolds previously said he would issue a written statement to members of parliament and table legislation on market access for U.S. beef and ethanol as soon as Monday. British officials now hope Reynolds will update parliament on Tuesday.”
TRADE (POLITICO): “Canada has agreed to ratify Britain’s accession to a massive Pacific-rim trade pact, allowing the two countries to trade under its terms as they push for closer commerce ties amid Washington’s tariff war.”
DEFENCE (POLITICO): “Keir Starmer is confident the £176 billion AUKUS submarine pact will still go ahead despite a Donald Trump review of the trilateral nuclear program.”
EU
TRADE (POLITICO): “"Let's keep trade between us fair, predictable and open. All of us need to avoid protectionist measures — this is an important message that the G7 can send to the markets and to the world," von der Leyen told reporters, speaking alongside Costa at the first press conference of the G7 leaders' meeting in Canada.”
G7 (POLITICO): “French president says conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine will be a top item at the G7 summit in Canada. Emmanuel Macron on Sunday urged U.S. President Donald Trump to use his influence to bring about peace in Ukraine and in the Middle East.”
FRANCE (BBC): “In a sign of Greenland's growing importance, French President Emmanuel Macron is visiting the Arctic island today, in what experts say is a show of European unity and a signal to Donald Trump.”
DEFENCE (ECONOMIST): “The biennial Paris airshow, the world’s biggest, opens on Monday at Le Bourget, an airport in the French capital. Nearly half the show will be dedicated to the defence industry, a big increase on the previous staging in 2023, according to the organisers.”
TECH (POLITICO): “Industry, lawmakers and safety campaigners begin new lobbying scramble as AI laws are revisited.”
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “President Donald Trump spoke for an hour Saturday morning with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump announced, amid increasingly volatile situations in the Middle East — and Putin’s war in Ukraine.”
US
MIDDLE EAST (BBG): “President Donald Trump said he believed it’s possible Israel and Iran could reach an agreement to end their conflict, though the two sides may need to continue fighting before they’re ready to broker a peace deal.”
US/ISRAEL (RTRS): “President Donald Trump vetoed an Israeli plan in recent days to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Sunday. "Have the Iranians killed an American yet? No. Until they do we're not even talking about going after the political leadership," said one of the sources, a senior U.S. administration official.
FED (MNI FED WATCH): Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for a fourth straight meeting and mark up their inflation and unemployment forecasts as President Trump's tariffs begin eating away at growth.
OTHER
ISRAEL/IRAN (BBG): “ Open hostilities between Israel and Iran entered a fourth day on Monday with no sign of easing, stoking fears of a wider war in the oil-rich region.”
ISRAEL (RTRS): “Regime change in Iran could be a result of Israel's military attacks on the country, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday, saying Israel would do whatever is necessary to remove the "existential threat" posed by Tehran.”
IRAN (RTRS): “ Iran has told mediators Qatar and Oman that it is not open to negotiating a ceasefire while it is under Israeli attack, an official briefed on the communications told Reuters on Sunday, as the two foes launched fresh attacks and raised fears of a wider conflict.”
CANADA (MNI): Canada's cabinet in late March approved a borrowing plan with a CAD95 billion "contingency margin" because of geopolitical risks and officials discussed how it might be used, according to a briefing document obtained by MNI, specifying an amount which if tapped would exceed the largest deficit on record outside the pandemic.
JAPAN (BBG): “Japan’s finance minister said discussions with market participants are a key factor for ensuring government bonds are bought and sold stably ahead of a closely watched ministry meeting with investors.”
JAPAN (BBG): “Public support for Japan’s prime minister is holding up after the government moved to address high rice prices, according to new opinion polls, a positive sign for Shigeru Ishiba as he heads into an election and tries to reach a trade agreement with the US.”
AUSTRALIA (MNI): Former RBA economists discuss its future moves.
CHINA
CONSUMPTION (MNI BRIEF): China's retail sales, a gauge of consumption, quickened to 6.4% y/y in May from April's 5.1% growth, hitting the highest level since December 2023, beating the 4.9% forecast, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.
MACRO POLICIES (MNI BRIEF): Beijing will continue implementing active macro policies to enhance economic momentum, according to Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.
HOUSING (PEOPLE’S DAILY): “China will make greater efforts to help the real-estate market bottom out and recover, according to the State Council executive meeting.”
CONSUMPTION (YICAI): “Chinese consumers remain cautious about increasing leverage, with new short-term residential loans falling in May by CNY45.1 billion compared to the same period last year, Yicai.com reported, citing analysts.”
EXPORTS (YICAI): “The impact of the recent U.S. tariff reduction on Chinese exports has yet to materialise fully, as exports to the U.S. still fell by 34.5% year-on-year in May, down a further 13.5 percentage points from April, according to Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China, writing in Yicai.com.”
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY68.2 Bln via OMO Monday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY242 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY68.2 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY173.8 reverse repo today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1789 Mon; +1.10% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1789 on Monday, compared with 7.1872 set on Friday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1849 by Bloomberg survey today.
MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.09% In Week of Jun 13
The CFETS Weekly RMB Index was 95.49 on Jun 13, down 0.09% compared with 95.58 as of Jun 6.
MARKET DATA
UK JUNE RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES -0.3% M/M; MAY +0.6%
UK JUNE RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES +0.8% Y/Y; MAY +1.2%
NEW ZEALAND BNZ MAY SERVICES 44; APR. 48.1
CHINA MAY EXISTING HOME PRICES -0.5% M/M; APR. -0.4%
CHINA MAY NEW HOME PRICES -0.22% M/M; APR. -0.12%
CHINA MAY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +5.8% Y/Y; EST. +6%; APR. +6.1%
CHINA MAY RETAIL SALES +6.4% Y/Y; EST. +4.9%; APR. +5.1%
CHINA JAN.-MAY FIXED INVESTMENT +3.7% Y/Y; EST. +4%; EST. +4.0%; JAN-APR. +4.0%
CHINA JAN.-MAY PROPERTY DEV. INVESTMENT -10.7% Y/Y; EST. -10.5%; JAN-APR. -10.3%
CHINA JAN.-MAY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES -2.8% Y/Y; JAN.-APR. -1.9%
CHINA END-MAY SURVEYED JOBLESS RATE 5.0%; EST. 5.1%; END-APR. 5.1%
SOUTH KOREA APRIL ADJUSTED M2 MONEY SUPPLY +0.2% M/M; MAR. -0.1%
SOUTH KOREA APRIL ADJUSTED L MONEY SUPPLY +0.5% M/M; MAR +0.4%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Edge Higher
The TYU5 range has been 110-18 to 110.26 during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-18+, down 0-01 from the previous close.
JGBS: Cheaper, BoJ Decision Tomorrow, Ueda Presser & Taper Program In Focus
JGB futures are weaker, -52 compared to the settlement levels, and hovering near the session’s worst level.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Jobs Report On Thurs, BoJ & FOMC Decisions Beforehand
ACGBs (YMU5 -8.0 & XMU5 -9.0) are weaker and hovering at/near Sydney session lows on a data-light day.
BONDS: NZGBS: Bear-Steepens, Global Bond Yields Push Higher, Q1 GDP On Thu
NZGBs closed at the session’s worst levels, showing a solid bear-steepening of the 2/10 curve. Benchmark yields rose by 3-8bps higher.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - USD Consolidates
The BBDXY has had a range of 1202.92 - 1204.92 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1204. Japan and the EU plan to step up defense-industry cooperation, with officials and private-sector representatives set to meet Monday, Nikkei reported“(BBG). CHINA Retail Sales Strong with Urban Leading: The retail sales figures for May confirm the strength of the consumer that supports an improving domestic economy. Urban retail sales grew strongly, expanding by +6.5% whilst rural increased to +5.4%.
Data/Events : Italy CPI, EZ Labour Costs
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - Tries Higher Finds Offers Back Towards 145.00 Again
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 143.97 - 144.75, Asia is currently trading around 144.35. USD/JPY has been better bid for most of our session as US yields extend their move higher and US Equity futures turn positive again after initially trying lower.
CFTC data shows Asset managers maintained their already extensive JPY longs, leveraged funds looked to have pared back their own longs once more.
Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6467 - 0.6496 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6475. The AUD has drifted a little lower for most of our session, -0.2%.
AUD/JPY - Today's range 93.34 - 93.89, it is trading currently around 93.45. The price has topped out again towards 94.00 this morning after a big bounce off 92.50 overnight. A break back below 91.50/92.00 is needed to see the move lower regain momentum and the focus turn back to the year's lows again.
Fig 1: AUD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
NZD: Asia Wrap - Quiet Asian Session
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6004 - 0.6026 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6010. A very quiet session for the NZD, it continues to cling to its foothold above 0.6000.
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0761 - 1.0798, currently trading 1.0770. A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the cross topped out last week towards the 1.0800/25 sell area, the first target looks to be around 1.0650.
Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

ASIA STOCKS: Major Markets Mixed with KOSPI Leading
Despite the Israel - Iran conflict driving volatility across financial markets, there was an even mix of results across major Asian bourses today with the KOSPI one of the best performers. China's bourses struggled as data released showed the struggle for housing continues.
OIL: WTI Continues to Rise as Brent Moderates
GOLD: Off Earlier Highs, But Uptrend Remains Intact
Gold made highs of $3451.31 in the first part of trade, but we sit lower now, last back close to $3431, down slightly from end levels last week. Early gains were driven by the spike in oil from the open, which contributed to softer US equity futures. Sentiment has stabilized somewhat though, with US equity futures back modestly in the green. The USD has also ticked up against the majors, likely providing an additional headwind to gold.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 16/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | *** | HICP (f) | |
| 16/06/2025 | 1030/1230 | ECB Cipollone At Osservatorio Banca Impresa 2030 Meeting | ||
| 16/06/2025 | 1215/0815 | ** | CMHC Housing Starts | |
| 16/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Empire State Manufacturing Survey | |
| 16/06/2025 | 1300/0900 | * | CREA Existing Home Sales | |
| 16/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
| 16/06/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
| 16/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond | |
| 16/06/2025 | - | FOMC Meetings with S.E.P. | ||
| 17/06/2025 | 0200/1100 | *** | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement | |
| 17/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 17/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | ZEW Current Expectations Index | |
| 17/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 17/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 17/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | International Canadian Transaction in Securities | |
| 17/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 17/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Import/Export Price Index | |
| 17/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Retail Sales | |
| 17/06/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 17/06/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | Industrial Production |