EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: USD BBDXY Index Versus US Tsy 10yr Nominal Yield

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
BOE (MNI BRIEF): It is not possible to simply offset the impact of quantitative tightening on financial conditions by cutting Bank Rate, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann said.
DEFENCE (BBC): “The government will invest billions of pounds to move the UK to "war-fighting readiness" in the face of a new era of threats from nuclear powers like Russia and China, the defence secretary has said. The government has accepted all 62 recommendations set out in a long-awaited Strategic Defence Review (SDR).”
EU
UKRAINE/RUSSIA (BBC): “A second round of direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have ended without a major breakthrough, and only a deal to swap more prisoners of war. Ukrainian negotiators said Russia had again rejected an "unconditional ceasefire" - a key demand by Kyiv and its allies in Europe and the US.”
RUSSIA (BBG): “Ukraine’s drone strike deep inside Russian territory left Kremlin officials angry and alarmed over the sudden vulnerability of a nuclear-capable air fleet far from the battlefield, according to people close to senior officials in Moscow.”
POLAND (POLITICO): “Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk intends to call a parliamentary vote of confidence in his government following the victory of opposition-backed Karol Nawrocki in Sunday’s presidential election, he said Monday evening.”
US
IRAN (BBG): “The US will not allow any uranium enrichment as part of any deal with Iran under any deal the countries reach, President Donald Trump said.”
FISCAL (BBG): “President Donald Trump worked the phones Monday and took to social media to try to sway Republican holdouts on his multi-trillion dollar tax bill, encountering conflicting demands from GOP senators even as he urged them to move swiftly.”
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): Federal Reserve officials will face a difficult choice on interest rates later this year as a significant reprieve on tariffs remains unlikely, so inflation will rise at the same time as economic growth falters, former White House economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin told MNI.
MANUFACTURING (MNI INTERVIEW): Uncertainty over trade policy will drag on U.S. manufacturing until at least the fourth quarter, as demand remains weak and the preemptive build-up of inventories begins to deplete, Institute of Supply Management survey chief Susan Spence told MNI on Monday.
OTHER
CANADA (MNI BOC WATCH): Canada's central bank is seen by a majority of economists as leaving interest rates unchanged for a second meeting Wednesday after core inflation moved above the target band and growth held up in the early days of the U.S. trade war.
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Monday laid out a short list of conditions needed for resource projects to be fast-tracked into a two-year approval timeline, and said he's open to oil pipelines linking Alberta's landlocked heavy crude to overseas markets.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Japan will maintain its stance of gradually raising the policy rate if economic and price conditions are realised, despite uncertainties surrounding the economic and price outlook remaining high, Governor Kazuo Ueda told lawmakers Tuesday.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Japan will conduct an interim assessment of its bond tapering plans at the June 16-17 policy meeting, taking market participants’ views into account when deciding the course of JGB purchases, Governor Kazuo Ueda told lawmakers Tuesday.
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): Domestic economic developments on their own justified the Reserve Bank of Australia board's May decision to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, with the easing case strengthened by global trade uncertainty, according to the minutes released Tuesday.
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): Australia’s bulk commodities exporters should weather global trade volatility in the short term, assuming Chinese authorities support their economy through fiscal stimulus, Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter told an industry association Tuesday.
CHINA
MANUFACTURING (MNI BRIEF): China's Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3 in May, down from April's 50.4, falling into the contraction zone below the 50 mark for the first time since October 2024, the financial publisher said on Monday.
LIQUIDITY (ECONOMIC INFORMATION DAILY): “Interbank market liquidity will remain loose in June following the PBOC’s reserve requirement ratio cut and increased medium-term lending facility rollover in May, Economic Information Daily reported citing analysts’ expectations.”
CHINA/US (MOFCOM): “The U.S. has successively introduced discriminatory measures against China since the Geneva talks, gravely undermining the hard-won trade consensus reached by both sides, a Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY375.5 Bln via OMO Tuesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY454.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY375.5 billion after offsetting the maturities of CNY830 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1869 Tues; +0.72% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1869 on Tuesday, compared with 7.1848 set before Dragon Boat Festival. The fixing was estimated at 7.1732 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q1 TERMS OF TRADE +1.9% Q/Q; EST. +3.5%; Q4 +3.2%
NEW ZEALAND Q1 EXPORT VOLUMES +4.6% Q/Q; Q4 +1.5%
NEW ZEALAND Q1 IMPORT VOLUMES -2.4% Q/Q; Q4 -1.7%
AUSTRALIA Q1 NET EXPORTS CUT 0.1PP FROM GDP; EST. 0.0PP; Q4 -0.1PP
AUSTRALIA Q1 PUBLIC SECTOR DEMAND TO DETRACT 0.1PP FROM GDP; Q4 +0.1PP
AUSTRALIA Q1 COMPANY PROFITS -0.5% Q/Q; EST 1.3%; Q4 +6.0%
AUSTRALIA Q1 INVENTORIES +0.8% Q/Q; EST 0.2%; Q4 +0.2%
AUSTRALIA Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT A$14.7B; EST. -A$12.5B; Q4 -A$16.3B
JAPAN MONETARY BASE MAY -3.4% Y/Y; APR. -4.8%
CHINA MAY CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI 48.3; EST. 50.7; APR. 50.
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields A Little Lower
The TYU5 range has been 110-16 to 110-20+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-20, up 0-05 from the previous close.
JGBS: 10Y Auction Result Sparks Rally, BoJ Ueda Speech Later Today
JGB futures are stronger, +10 compared to settlement levels, after gapping higher following a strong 10-year auction.
AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed, RBA Minutes Highlight Uncertainty
ACGBs (YM flat & XM -1.0) are little changed after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session.
BONDS: NZGBS: Twist-Steepener After Long Weekend
After the long weekend, NZGBs closed showing a twist-steepener, with benchmark yields 1bp lower to 4bps higher.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - USD Bounces in Asia
The BBDXY has had a range of 1207.93 - 1211.32 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1210. Robin Brooks on X: “Today's Dollar fall is worrying. It mirrors Dollar weakness in early April, when the Dollar (black) fell even as interest differentials of the US vis-à-vis the G10 (blue) were stable(see graph below). That kind of decoupling of the Dollar from rate differentials is unusual and a worrying sign.” https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1929653605440606282
Data/Events : Spain Unemployment, Italy Unemployment, EC CPI
Fig 1: DXY vs 2Y2Y FWD Rate

Source - Robin Brooks via X
JPY: Asia USD/JPY Wrap - Ueda Puts the Brakes On The Move Lower, For Now ?
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 142.38 - 143.27, Asia is currently trading around 143.10. USD/JPY has had an unexpected bounce in our session as the BOJ Governor pushes back on being forced to raise rates.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 143.00($450m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 140.00($1.89b June 5), 140.00($1.13b June 6).
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Struggling To Hold Above 0.6000
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6011 - 0.6055 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6015. The NZD has failed to hold onto its gains above 0.6050 and drifted lower all day. The move lower has been a reaction to weaker Chinese data and US Equity futures trading poorly in our session. The Bulls will be hoping demand can keep it on a 0.6000 handle to build for another attempt.
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0727 - 1.0770, currently trading 1.0755. A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the market will have been looking for a more dovish tone from the RBNZ last week and AUD/NZD could now see supply on bounces. The sell zone is back towards 1.0825/50 with the first target being around 1.0650.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUD: Asia Wrap - Fails At 0.6500 Once More
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6464 - 0.6500 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6465. The AUD has again failed towards the 0.6500 area, the move lower has been a reaction to weaker Chinese data and US Equity futures trading poorly in our session.
AUD/JPY - Today's range 92.49 - 92.86, it is trading currently around 92.55. Range looks 92.00 - 94.00 for now, a sustained break sub 91.50/92.00 will bring focus back to towards the lows again.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
ASIA STOCKS: China Up on Stimulus Hopes, Elsewhere Mixed
As China returns from a break yesterday, an unexpected weak CAIXIN manufacturing PMI drove markets higher as investors speculate about the potential for further policy intervention. With Korea closed, all eyes were on China's major bourses with some of the beaten down EV related stocks having a better day in Hong Kong (BYD +1.7%, Li Auto +6.4%)
OIL: Crude Holds Onto Gains As Supply Worries Fade
Oil prices have held onto Monday’s 3.7% gains and continued to trade higher during today’s APAC session. WTI is up 0.4% to around $62.80/bbl but off the intraday high of $63.25, but continues to trade above the 50-day EMA at $62.47 opening up key resistance at $65.82. Brent is 0.3% higher at $64.82 but down from today’s peak of $65.34, just above initial resistance at $65.31. The USD index is up 0.1%.
GOLD: Bullion Gives Up Some Gains As US Dollar Strengthens
After rising 2.8% to $3381 on Monday, gold prices are down 0.6% to $3361.9, holding just below initial resistance at $3365.9, 23 May high, during today’s APAC trading. They reached a high of $3392.2 early in the session but have trended lower since reaching a trough of $3359.91 as the US dollar strengthened (USD BBDXY +0.2%), but trade and geopolitical risks remain present with talks on a number of fronts ongoing.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 03/06/2025 | 0630/0830 | *** | CPI | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0700/0300 | * | Turkey CPI | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | *** | HICP (p) | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 03/06/2025 | 0915/1015 | BOE Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Mann At TSC | ||
| 03/06/2025 | - | *** | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | JOLTS jobs opening level | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | JOLTS quits Rate | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | Factory New Orders | |
| 03/06/2025 | 1645/1245 | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | ||
| 03/06/2025 | 1700/1300 | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | ||
| 03/06/2025 | 1930/1530 | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | ||
| 04/06/2025 | 2300/0900 | * | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI | |
| 04/06/2025 | 2300/0900 | ** | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0030/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0130/1130 | *** | Quarterly GDP | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | ADP Employment Report | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | ||
| 04/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | Bank of Canada Policy Decision | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |