EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: The 30yr JGB Yield Hits Highest Since 2008
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
UK
UKRAINE (BBC): “Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has spoken to US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after a meeting between the two leaders in Washington descended into a row about US support for Ukraine.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “The Thales missile factory in Belfast is to supply 5,000 air defence missiles to Ukraine, the Prime Minister has announced. The deal is worth up to £1.6bn and will involve recruiting 200 additional staff.”
EU
EU (MNI): “The European Commission is working on a new joint-funding instrument for about EUR100 billion to help pay for a significant boost to European spending as a proposal for Thursday's Brussels summit, a well-placed source told MNI, with EU member states likely to pay for the lion’s share for any increase in military budgets.”
EU (POLITICO): “"We will give a mandate to the European Commission to define our capacity needs for a common defense," Macron said in an interview published in several French newspapers on Sunday. "This massive funding probably reaches hundreds of billions of euros," he said.”
UKRAINE (BBG): “French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are working on a plan to reach a one-month truce in Ukraine, including ground and maritime operations as well as energy infrastructure.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “More countries have signed up to Britain and France’s plan to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, Keir Starmer said.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced a four-point plan to work with Ukraine to end the war and to defend the country from Russia. The UK, France and other countries will step up their efforts in a "coalition of the willing" and seek to involve the US in their support for Ukraine, he said.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “In a lengthy social media thread on Saturday following the dismaying Washington meeting, Zelenskyy struck a conciliatory tone, expressing gratitude for American aid while emphasizing that Ukraine still needs “security guarantees” in order to achieve a “just and lasting peace.””
UKRAINE (BBG): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is willing to meet with US President Donald Trump if invited again "to solve real problems".”
DEFENCE (POLITICO): “A pooling of France’s nuclear warheads to help protect Europe won’t happen ― not if Marine Le Pen can help it. The far-right leader on Saturday vigorously opposed plans to build a stronger, more integrated European defense, including by sharing France’s nuclear umbrella.”
GERMANY (DW): “Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens look set to be able to continue their coalition in the northern state of Hamburg following a regional election Sunday. According to preliminary official results, the SPD took 33.5% of the vote compared to 39.2% in 2020, but remained the largest party in Hamburg. The center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) of chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz gained ground, coming in second with 20%.”
GERMANY (DW): “Likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz has said he will find "ways and means" for Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Germany. Israel's Prime Minister is wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.”
AUSTRIA (DW): “Austria's liberal NEOS party on Sunday approved a deal that paves the way for a three-way coalition government led by the center-right under Christian Stocker who is set to become chancellor next week.”
IRELAND (BBC): “The taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) has been invited to the White House by US President Donald Trump to celebrate St Patrick's Day next month. The meeting is scheduled to take place on 12 March.”
US
FED (MNI): “Policymakers don't yet know whether the recent productivity surge will last and monetary policy should react cautiously, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Friday.”
TRADE (MNI): “New tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico would noticeably boost consumer prices in an "immediate and persistent" manner, a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on Friday finds.”
TRADE (BBG): “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Mexico has proposed matching Washington's tariffs on China, and urges Canada to do the same.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “In a sometimes combative interview Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio posited that the thing that matters most when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine war is getting Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table — and everything else is just noise.”
POLITICS (POLITICO): “Sen. Lisa Murkowski delivered a scorching rebuke Saturday of President Donald Trump’s explosive exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a rare voice of Republican dissent as party members lined up in support of the president’s increasingly combative relationship with Ukraine.”
FINANCE (BBC): “US President Donald Trump has revealed the names of five cryptocurrencies that he says he'd like to be included in a new strategic reserve to make the US "the Crypto Capital of the World".”
AGRICULTURE (BBG): “American farmers will soon start receiving the first tranche of $30 billion in funding approved by Congress to fight a downturn in the markets, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.”
POLITICS (POLITICO): “A federal judge ruled Saturday that President Donald Trump’s firing of a federal workforce watchdog was illegal — teeing up a Supreme Court showdown over the president’s claim to nearly absolute control of the executive branch.”
OTHER
KOREA (DW): “The USS Carl Vinson has entered the port of Busan, South Korea, in a show of force expected to enrage Pyongyang. The move comes just days after North Korea tested strategic cruise missiles.”
ISRAEL (BBG): “Israel has halted all humanitarian aid and imports to the Gaza Strip after a six-week truce with Hamas expired and Hamas rejected a US proposal to extend the ceasefire.”
CHINA
ECONOMY (MNI): “China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose by 1.1 points to 50.2 in February, back above the breakeven 50 mark again to hit a three-month high, as manufacturers resumed production following the Spring Festival, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Saturday.”
TRADE (BBG): “China may target agricultural and food products in its countermeasure in response to US threats that it will include an extra 10% tariffs on Chinese products, according to Global Times, citing an unidentified source.”
ENERGY (BBG): “China’s liquefied natural import gas imports fell to a five-year low last month on weak demand and higher European prices luring cargoes there.”
FINANCE (SECURITIES DAILY): “China issued CNY596 billion of new local government special bonds during the first two months of the year, up from CNY403 billion over the same period last year, reported Securities Daily.”
POLICY (CHINA FUND NEWS) “Authorities will promote consumption and developing AI, and other emerging sectors during the upcoming “Two Sessions” this week, China Fund News reported, citing analysts' expectations.”
ECONOMY (PBOC): “The People’s Bank of China will guide banks to support private and small business through increased lending using structural monetary policy tools, and further facilitate diversified financing channels via stocks, bonds and loans, according to a meeting held by the PBOC and four other departments.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net injects CNY102 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY284.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY102 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY182.5 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1738 Fri; -0.99% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1738 on Friday, compared with 7.1740 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2849 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL FEB. F MANUFACTURING PMI 50.4; FEB P 50.6; JAN. 50.2
AUSTRALIA Q4 COMPANY PROFITS +5.9% Q/Q; EST 1.8%; Q3 -4.9%
AUSTRALIA Q4 INVENTORIES +0.1% Q/Q, EST. 0%; Q3 -0.7%
AUSTRALIA FEB. ANZ JOB ADS -1.4% M/M; JAN. +1.3%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 TERMS OF TRADE +3.1% Q/Q; EST. +1.4%; Q3 +2.5%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 EXPORT VOLUMES RISE 1.3% Q/Q; Q3 -1.5%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 IMPORT VOLUMES FALL 1.7% Q/Q; Q3 +2.6%
JAPAN JIBUN BANK FEB. MANUFACTURING PMI 49; JAN. 48.7
CHINA FEB. CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI 50.8; EST. 50.4; JAN. 50.1
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Yields Cheaper, Curve Bear-Steepens
JGBS: Futures Weaker & Near Lows, US Tsys Weighing
JGB futures are holding weaker at session cheaps, -30 compared to the settlement levels.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper With US Tsys, More Q4 GDP Partials Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -4.0) are weaker after today’s stronger-than-expected domestic data drop, namely Q4 Inventories and Company Profits.
NZGBS: Closed Slightly Cheaper, US Tsys Driving Seat
NZGBs closed showing modest weakness, with benchmark yields 1-2bps higher.
ASIA STOCKS: Equities Higher On Strong China Data
ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Continue Selling Asian Equities
Large outflows on Friday for South Korea, while outflows have increased across Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia & Philippines.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Crude Higher As Easing Of Russian Sanctions Appears Elusive
Oil prices are higher during today’s APAC trading but are off their intraday high coinciding with the US dollar rising from its lows. The market realises that a peace in Ukraine that allows sanctions on Russian energy to be eased is a long way off after the difficult meeting at the White House. WTI is up 0.6% to $70.18/bbl after reaching $70.60 earlier, while Brent is 0.6% higher at $73.21/bbl following a high of $73.67. The USD index is still down 0.2%.
LNG: Gas Prices Lower Heading Towards Spring
Natural gas prices were lower on Friday. European gas fell 1.9% to EUR 44.30 to be down 16.6% in February as hopes rose of more flexible EU refilling regulations ahead of next winter and the weather warmed. There were also nascent hopes of a peace deal for Ukraine that would allow Russian gas flows through Ukraine again. Prices troughed late in February at EUR 41.09.
Gold Post Modest Gains After First Weekly Loss for Year.
FOREX: US$ Weakens After Friday’s Gains As Europe Outperforms
The US dollar is unwinding Friday’s gain during today’s APAC session. The BBDXY USD index is down 0.25% after rising 0.3% at the end of last week following the clash between the White House and President Zelensky which increases global uncertainty. Yesterday European leaders worked on a plan to increase Ukraine’s defences and for a month-long ceasefire at sea and in the air. UK PM Starmer has said he will discuss the results with US President Trump. This has supported European currencies, which have generally outperformed today.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
03/03/2025 | 0700/0200 | * | ![]() | Turkey CPI |
03/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
03/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ![]() | Deficit to GDP 2024/ GDP Y/Y | |
03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | BOE Lending to Individuals |
03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | BOE M4 |
03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
03/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | ![]() | HICP (p) |
03/03/2025 | - | *** | ![]() | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
03/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | ![]() | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
03/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | ![]() | ISM Manufacturing Index |
03/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | ![]() | Construction Spending |
03/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
03/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | ![]() | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
03/03/2025 | 1735/1235 | ![]() | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
04/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | * | ![]() | Labor Force Survey |
04/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | ![]() | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ![]() | RBA Meeting Minutes | |
04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ![]() | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | ![]() | Retail Trade |
04/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | ![]() | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
04/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | Unemployment |