EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: BoJ Market Pricing Outlook
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
WAGES (MNI): Brightmine median pay awards in the 3 months to February remained at 3.0%, the third consecutive monthly reading where pay awards have remained at the lowest level since December 2021.
POLITICS (BBC): “The government has unveiled sweeping changes to the benefits system, aimed at saving £5bn a year by 2030. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said the overhaul would create a more "pro-work system" to encourage people to take up jobs, while protecting those who cannot work.”
TRADE (BBC): “US tariffs on imported steel and aluminium have "spooked" customers of British steel, according to Tata Steel UK. Tata Steel operates the UK's largest steelworks in Port Talbot and exports around $100m (£77m) of steel annually to the USA.”
EU
RUSSIA/UKRAINE (RTRS): “ Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Tuesday to stop attacking Ukrainian energy facilities temporarily but declined to endorse a full 30-day ceasefire that President Donald Trump hoped would be the first step toward a permanent peace deal.”
RUSSIA (POLITICO): “As United States President Donald Trump pushes ceasefire talks with Russia, top European officials gathering for a security conference on the other side of the world warned that Vladimir Putin isn’t actually interested in any meaningful peace deal.”
DEFENCE( MNI BRIEF): The European Union will prioritise investment in European firms to help develop an industrial base, European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen said in a speech in Copenhagen on Tuesday.
RUSSIA (ECONOMIST): “Russia appeared keen to please the hosts of the Raisina Dialogue, India’s premier geopolitics conference, which ends on Wednesday. Ahead of the event, the Kremlin paid for billboards across Delhi emblazoned with images of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, and Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. The pair are “side by side” in “driving global change”.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “In a joint letter obtained by POLITICO on Tuesday, top diplomats from Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia called on Brussels to produce “concrete proposals on how to decisively advance Ukraine’s accession process.””
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is visiting Finland to meet top leadership in Helsinki, at a delicate point in Kyiv’s defense against Russia’s full-scale invasion.”
EU (POLITICO): “The European Parliament's reforms in the wake of the cash-for-influence Qatargate scandal helped it identify alleged Huawei corruption earlier, Parliament President Roberta Metsola said Tuesday evening.”
GERMANY (POLITICO): ““If one day a just and secure peace [with Ukraine] is established, then we should also be able to discuss purchasing Russian gas again,” said Jan Heinisch, a politician with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a negotiator in his party’s federal coalition talks with the center-left Social Democratic Party.”
GERMANY (POLITICO): “The German foreign office informed Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s office and other ministries Monday of its intention to propose Baerbock for the post of U.N. General Assembly president, according to domestic media outlets including Spiegel and dpa.”
FRANCE (POLITICO): “France will modernize one of the country's main air bases so it can host nuclear weapons, French President Emmanuel Macron announced Tuesday.”
TURKEY (POLITICO): “The political future of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main rival, İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, has been thrown into jeopardy after his university diploma was annulled on Tuesday.”
US
FED (MNI INTERVIEW): Fed Standing Pat, Awaiting Clarity - English
DATA (MNI INTERVIEW): Concerns Mount Over US Data Reliability -Wilcox
GOVERNMENT (RTRS): “ President Donald Trump fired two Democratic commissioners at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission on Tuesday, in another major test of the independence of regulatory agencies.”
GOVERNMENT (RTRS): “U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts rebuked President Donald Trump on Tuesday for urging the impeachment of a federal judge, laying bare tensions between the country's chief executive and the judiciary as Trump's sweeping assertions of power run into judicial roadblocks.”
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Japan board on Wednesday unanimously decided to keep the unsecured overnight call loan rate at 0.50%, noting it would watch trade and other policies amid high uncertainties.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The Bank of Japan maintained its view that Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to strengthen moderately, following the Board's decision Wednesday to hold the Policy Rate at 0.5%.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan’s exports posted their fifth straight rise in February, up 11.4% from January's 7.3% driven by higher automobile shipments, which grew 2.9 percentage points to 13.4%, data released by the Ministry of Finance showed on Wednesday showed.
SOUTH KOREA (BBG): “South Korean government will mobilize all available means to block factors that cause housing price increase, including property-related regulations and finance, Acting President Choi Sang-mok says in a meeting.”
CHINA
MONETARY POLICY (CSJ): “China is set to deploy a set of monetary tools to support economic recovery after its central bank governor recently indicated that there’s still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts, according to a report by China Securities Journal Wednesday, citing analysts.”
BONDS (SECURITIES TIMES): “China’s 30-year treasury bond futures hit the lowest this year on Tuesday as the market lowers its expectations of the pace of monetary policy easing, according to a report by Securities Times Wednesday.”
CHINA/GERMANY (MNI BRIEF): China and Germany will continue deepening cooperation in energy efficiency and climate change this year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced on Wednesday, citing a recent meeting with German counterparts.
LPRs (MNI BRIEF): "China's Loan Prime Rate is likely to remain unchanged this month as the economy continues to recover, although authorities will likely ease policy later in the year to consolidate momentum and target key sectors, such as the stock market and technology sector."
TECH (SHANGHAI SECURITIES DAILY): "China’s AI and tech sector-led stock market recovery was further consolidated by rising consumption and financial stocks since March, a trend expected to continue fuelling asset revaluation going forwards, Shanghai Securities News reported"
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY120.5 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY295.9 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY120.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY175.4 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1697 Weds; +0.09% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1697 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1733 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2223 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q4 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT NZ$7.04B; EST. -NZ$6.65B; Q3 –NZ$10.84B
NEW ZEALAND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT 6.2% OF GDP IN 12 MTHS TO DEC.; EST. -6.1%; Q3 -6.5%
NEW ZEALAND WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Q1 89.2; Q4 97.5
AUSTRALIA FEB. WESTPAC LEADING INDEX +0.07% M/M; JAN. +0.10%
JAPAN FEB. EXPORTS +11.4% Y/Y; EST. 12.6%; JAN. +7.3%
JAPAN FEB. IMPORTS -0.7% Y/Y; EST. 0.8%; JAN. +16.2%
JAPAN FEB. TRADE BALANCE +Y584.5B; EST. +Y688.3B; JAN. -Y2736.6B
JAPAN FEB. ADJUSTED TRADE SURPLUS Y182.26B; EST. +Y491.5B; JAN. –Y601.3B
JAPAN JAN. CORE MACHINE ORDERS -3.5% M/M; EST. -0.1%; DEC. -0.8%
JAPAN JAN. CORE MACHINE ORDERS +4.4% Y/Y; EST. +6.6%; DEC. +4.3%
JAPAN FINAL JAN. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -1.1% M/M; DEC. -0.3%
JAPAN FINAL JAN. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +2.2% Y/Y; DEC. +2.6%
JAPAN JAN. CAPACITY UTILIZATION +4.5% M/M; DEC. -0.2%
MARKETS
US TSYS: Cash Bonds Slightly Cheaper Ahead Of FOMC Decision
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is 110-22+, -0-03 from closing levels.
JGBS: No Change Decision By BoJ As Expected, Holiday Tomorrow
In Tokyo afternoon trading, JGB futures are weaker and near session lows, -18 compared to the settlement levels, after the BoJ Policy Decision announcement.
AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session Ahead Of FOMC Decision & Jobs Data
ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -1.5) are slightly weaker, with dealings muted ahead of the FOMC decision (tomorrow morning local time) and the February Employment Report.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed On A Strong Note Ahead Of FOMC Policy Decision
NZGBs closed on a strong note, with benchmark yields 3-4bps lower.
FOREX: USD Index Edges Up, Yen Steady Post BOJ, FOMC Later
The USD BBDXY index sits slightly higher in the first part of Wednesday dealings, last near 1263.1. We are still close to recent multi-month lows at 1261.15. Today's gain is around 0.10% at this stage.
ASIA STOCKS: A Mixed Day as Indonesia Bounces Back.
Following a disastrous day for the Jakarta Composite yesterday, attempts by authorities to stabilize things appear to be working as it posts some solid gains whilst bourses around the region are mixed.
OIL: Crude Slightly Lower Ahead Of The Fed & EIA Inventory Data
Oil prices are moderately lower during APAC trading today after falling around a percent on Tuesday. It has been pressured by softer risk appetite and US industry data pointing to another crude stock build. Hopes of a Ukraine peace deal have also pressured prices, but with Russia’s president Putin only agreeing to a partial ceasefire, an end to the war and sanctions is likely some way off.
Gold Consolidates with Eye on Middle East.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
19/03/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | ![]() | Industrial Production |
19/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | ![]() | HICP (f) |
19/03/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | ![]() | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
19/03/2025 | 1200/1300 | ![]() | ECB de Guindos In Madrid | |
19/03/2025 | 1300/1400 | ![]() | ECB Elderson At European Financials Conference | |
19/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | ![]() | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
19/03/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | ![]() | FOMC Statement |
19/03/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | ![]() | TICS |
20/03/2025 | 2145/1045 | *** | ![]() | GDP |
20/03/2025 | - | ![]() | Swiss National Bank Meeting | |
20/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** | ![]() | Labor Force Survey |
20/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | ![]() | Labour Market Survey |
20/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | ![]() | PPI |
20/03/2025 | 0800/0900 | ![]() | ECB's Lagarde At ECON Hearing | |
20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | ![]() | SNB PolicyRate |
20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | ![]() | Riksbank Interest Rate Decison |
20/03/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | ![]() | SNB Interest Rate Decision |
20/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ![]() | Q1 Regional Network Survey | |
20/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | ![]() | Construction Production |
20/03/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | ![]() | CBI Industrial Trends |
20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | ![]() | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | ![]() | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
20/03/2025 | 1200/1300 | ![]() | ECB's Lane At UCC Economics Society's Conference | |
20/03/2025 | 1200/1200 | ![]() | Agents summary of business conditions | |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | Jobless Claims |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | ![]() | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
20/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | ![]() | Current Account Balance |