MNI Europe Pi: Schatz Longs Evaporate

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Jun-23 16:17By: Tim Cooper
Bunds+ 1

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • European bond futures positioning is decidedly mixed after a couple of weeks following the conclusion of the Eurex roll (Jun 6) and a hawkishly-perceived ECB meeting (Jun 5).
  • The most notable shift has been in Germany where contracts have shifted to flat/short after going into the roll leaning more toward the "long" side.
  • We note shorts were set across most contracts in the most recent week.
  • GERMANY: German contracts were leaning "long" in April but there's been a decisive shift toward "short" since. Most notably in Schatz, positioning has gone from "very long" in late May to one of two shorts in Europe Pi. The other is Bund, which was "flat" previously. Bobl and Buxl remain flat. Shorts were set in Schatz and Buxl last week, with short cover in Bobl and Bund longs set.
  • OAT: OAT has edged to long  positioning from flat previously, compared to a brief period in short territory in March/April. The most recent week's trade was indicative of short setting.
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning is in its typical "flat" territory where it has been for most of the year, versus a brief jump to "very long" pre-roll. Some longs were reduced last week.
  • BTP: BTP has edged back into "very long" territory vs merely "long" pre-roll (it's typically long/very long). Trade indicative of short setting was seen last week.


 

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