BONDS: MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Bigger Shorts Post-ECB
Dec-21 12:59
We've just released our latest Europe Pi Positioning Indicator, emailed to clients and available in PDF.
- Shorts have built in European futures contracts going into year-end, led by Germany.
- The past week's trade - which has been punctuated by hawkish policy moves by the ECB and Bank of Japan - has pushed most of the space into structurally short positioning.
- Gilts are a notable exception.
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UK: Week Ahead (2/2)
Nov-21 12:47
- This afternoon, the DMO will release the agenda for its January to March issuance. We outlined our expectations alongside a reaction to the Autumn Statement in the UK in our Deep Dive document here.
- We also expect to receive details this week of the Bank’s plan to begin sales of its long-dated gilts and linkers that it bought as part of its “Temporary” purchase programme in October. Last week a meeting was held with GEMMs where a number of interesting questions were tabled (see the Minutes here) but at present there is still little known on the parameters of the programme other than that it will be demand-led.
- This week will see the syndicated reopening of the 0.125% Mar-73 linker, an auction of the 0.25% Jan-25 gilt as well as BOE APF gilt sales operations for shorts this afternoon and mediums on Thursday.
- For the full MNI Gilt Week Ahead including a syndication and auction preview click here.
UK: Week Ahead (1/2)
Nov-21 12:39
- In terms of events for the week ahead, we will receive PMI data on Wednesday and fiscal data on Tuesday (with the latter a lot less relevant given the gilt remit has just been updated for the year.
- There are also a number of potentially interesting speeches by MPC members this week. The highlights will be a lecture from Huw Pill on Wednesday evening on “Returning inflation to target: delivering on the policy imperative?” and then the Bank of England Watchers’ Conference on Thursday. This will see Ramsden give a speech “That was the year that was”, Pill sit on a panel entitled “Asset purchases” and Mann on a panel entitled “Inflation”. There was a speech from Cunliffe this morning, but it was focused on central bank digital currencies rather than monetary policy.
- The weekend news has been dominated by a Times story in which it describes a potential for a “Swiss-style” trade agreement with the EU. See the full story here.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Nov-21 12:36
- EUR/USD: Nov23 $1.0050(E1.3bln), $1.0300(E1.3bln)
