BONDS: MNI Europe Pi: Gilts Very Long Going Into Quarterly Roll
May-21 13:51
We've published our latest Europe Pi positioning update - Download Full Document Here
- Long structural positioning has shown some signs of fading over the course of May, though there still aren't any outright shorts across European bond futures contracts, with multiple "longs".
- The quarterly Gilt roll has begun, with the contract in "very long" territory (first notice is May 29 and there is a holiday Monday so rolls have started on the early side; for Eurex it's June 6).
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FED: Chicago's Goolsbee: Central Bank Independence Key To Anchor L-R Infl Exp
Apr-21 13:01
CNBC anchors trying to pin down Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 voter, dove) on the impact of President Trump potentially replacing Fed Chair Powell - Goolsbee won't be drawn into the speculation but he is emphatic that central bank independence is crucial to keeping longer-run inflation expectations down.
- Goolsbee says without central bank independence, you get "higher inflation, worse growth, higher unemployment." And he cites Paul Volcker's example of tightening policy to quell inflation, saying "sometimes the Fed has to do the hard job".
- That said, asked if he still sees rates being lower 12 - 18 months from now: "I still think that", identifying the March Dot Plot as a guide to the overall direction of rates.
US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Ratio Put Spread
Apr-21 12:35
- 11,179 TYM5 108/111 2x1 put spds, 32 ref 110-25.5
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 2Y Buy
Apr-21 12:31
- +20,000 TUM5 103-26.5, buy through 103-26 post time offer at 0815:05ET, DV01 $736,000. The 2Y contract trades 103-26.5 last (+1.12).
