MNI Europe Pi: Gilts Very Long Going Into Quarterly Roll

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May-21 13:49By: Tim Cooper
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  • Long structural positioning has shown some signs of fading over the course of May, though there still aren't any outright shorts across European bond futures contracts, with multiple "longs".
  • The quarterly Gilt roll has begun, with the contract in "very long" territory (first notice is May 29 and there is a holiday Monday so rolls have started on the early side;  for Eurex it's June 6).
  • GERMANY: German contracts are fading some of the long lean seen in April. Schatz remains "very long" for now. Bobl however has left long territory and is now flat. Bund and Buxl each remain in flat positioning. Shorts were set in Buxl in the past week, with longs set in Schatz, Bobl and Bund.  
  • OAT: OAT remains in "flat"  structural positioning, where it has been for all of May after a spell in short territory in March/April. The most recent week's trade was indicative of long setting.
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains "very long" into the roll, compared with "flat" where it spent most of the prior 7 months. The latest week saw some some shorts set.   
  • BTP: BTP remains in its typical "long" territory. Trade indicative of short covering was seen in the most recent week.