MNI Europe Pi: Further Shift Away From Shorts

article image
May-02 12:10By: Tim Cooper
Bunds+ 1

Download Full Report Here

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • Structural positioning continues to move toward the long side across European bond futures.
  • There are now no contracts in "short" territory, while  there are two "very long". Overall, contracts are the longest/least short they have been since autumn 2024.
  • Trade in the latest week (excluding the May 1 holiday for EGBs) was mostly indicative of long-setting.
  • GERMANY: German contracts have consistently headed away from "short" territory since mid-March, led by Schatz and Bobl, which are now "very long"/"long", respectively. Bund and Buxl are each in flat positioning, but this compares to "very short/short" a month ago. Shorts were set in Schatz in the last week, with longs reduced in Bobl and Bund. Buxl saw longs set."   
  • OAT: OAT has returned to "flat"  structural positioning, after a spell in short territory. The most recent week's trade was indicative of long setting.  
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning has notably shifted to" very long", compared with "flat" where it spent most of then prior 7 months. The latest week saw some some longs set.    
    BTP: BTP has returned to its typical "long" territory vs "flat" in our prior update, with some some long-setting seen in the most recent week.    

 

image