MNI EU Credit Weekly: NIC Shutdown

Download Full Report Here

Executive Summary: 

• Spreads firmed by 2.5bp this week on lower supply. Aggressive pricing suggests underlying demand remains strong. Technicals should remain supportive into issuer blackouts and supportive fund flows.
• In macro, implied Fed rate cuts had dovish price moves despite the government shutdown supressing data releases, following a soft ADP print. Dutch pension reform again drove EUR swap curves steeper.
• Fund flows continued into credit and equities with particular strength in EUR IG.
• Supply essentially halved this week to €7.4bn. Average NICs moved sharply into negative territory as we recorded the highest average book shrinkage of 2025. Expectations are for similar fins supply and lower corps supply next week.