EM ASIA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Weekly

There were slight upward revisions to the ECB’s forward looking wage tracker compared to the April vintage, but the broader theme of softening compensation pressures remains intact.

• The tracker excluding one-off payments is seen at 3.082% in Q4 2024 (vs 3.024% in the April iteration). The ECB projects compensation per employee growth at 2.8% by the last quarter of this year, down from 3.8% in Q1.
• There were also upward revisions to the share of employees covered by the wage tracker (45% in Q4 2025 vs 43% in April).
• From the ECB: “The downward trend of the forward-looking wage tracker for the remainder of 2025 partly reflects the mechanical impact of large one-off payments (that were paid in 2024 but drop out in 2025) and the front-loaded nature of wage increases in some sectors in 2024.”
• Little impact in ECB implied rates following the release, as expected. 

Bringing your attention to Monday and the Yen Expiry size.

Of note:

EURUSD 2.31bn at 1.1400 (could act as magnet, although the US CPI will determine the move in the spot before expiry at 15.00BST/10.00ET).

USDJPY 1.11bn at 145.00.

EURUSD 1.11bn at 1.1400 (thu).

EURUSD 1.37bn at 1.1400 (fri).

EURUSD 1.25bn at 1.1400 (mon).

USDJPY 4.57bn at 145.00 (mon).

• EURUSD: 1.1400 (2.31bn), 1.1500 (836mln).
• GBPUSD: 1.3450 (758mln).
• USDJPY: 145.00 (1.11bn).
• AUDUSD: 0.6495 (400mln), 0.6500 (346mln).
• AUDNZD: 1.0800 (300mln).

Germany has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction next Tuesday, June 17:

• E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025)
• E500mln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005)